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Old 01-03-2017, 08:48 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,443 posts, read 11,948,134 times
Reputation: 10548

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I decided to drill down into the 2016 census population estimates, looking at domestic migration only.

Northeast:
Delaware: 3,027
DC: 2,276
New Hampshire: 2,187
Maine: 2,169
Vermont: -2.865
Rhode Island: - 3,784
Massachusetts: -25,606
Maryland: -26,232
Connecticut: -29,880
Pennsylvania: -45,565
New Jersey: -66,791
New York: -191,367


Midwest:
South Dakota: 981
Minnesota: -1,762
Nebraska: -2,144
Iowa: -3,392
Missouri: -6,250
North Dakota: -6,259
Indiana: -12,135
Wisconsin: -12,395
Kansas: -18,595
Ohio: -27,558
Michigan -27,839
Illinois: -114,144


South:
Florida: 207,155
Texas: 125,703
North Carolina: 59,584
South Carolina: 47,084
Georgia: 36,781
Tennessee: 30,519
Arkansas: 195
Alabama: -684
Kentucky:-3,429
Oklahoma: -3,822
West Virgina: -7,659
Mississippi: -9,690
Louisiana: - 12,243
Virginia: - 25,343


West:
Washington: 67,571
Arizona: 61,544
Colorado: 50,216
Oregon: 50,038
Nevada: 34,575
Utah: 19,778
Idaho: 17,143
Montana: 6,853
Wyoming: -4,357
Alaska: -4,587
New Mexico: -9,748
Hawaii: -10,021
California: -109,023
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Old 01-03-2017, 08:55 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,443 posts, read 11,948,134 times
Reputation: 10548
And now for some thoughts:

Northeast: I'm not surprised that Delaware and DC continue to attract domestic migrants, as DC is gentrifying and Delaware has a lot of "Sun Belt" style development happening in lower and slower portions. New Hampshire has long been a place that Massachusetts residents move to, so the slight growth there is not incredible. Maine is very surprising, however.

Midwest: Awful just about everywhere. I do wonder why people are moving to South Dakota however.

South: Similar to previous years, over three quarters of the net growth for the entire region is attributable to Florida and Texas. The rest of the Atlantic coastal South is doing well in terms of domestic migration, except for Virginia, which people are now fleeing. The inland south continues to do badly, with only Tennessee and Arkansas (barely) growing.

West: California is of course losing massive amounts of people, and probably contributes more to the "rest of the west" gain than anywhere else, as Californians who leave the state seldom want to leave the west. New Mexico has been in the economic doldrums for awhile, and Alaska and Hawaii have been hard hit by the collapse in energy prices. Hawaii has long had out-migration of local residents due to the high cost of living. Everywhere else, the west is booming.
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Old 01-03-2017, 09:11 AM
 
56,708 posts, read 81,038,544 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
And now for some thoughts:

Northeast: I'm not surprised that Delaware and DC continue to attract domestic migrants, as DC is gentrifying and Delaware has a lot of "Sun Belt" style development happening in lower and slower portions. New Hampshire has long been a place that Massachusetts residents move to, so the slight growth there is not incredible. Maine is very surprising, however.

Midwest: Awful just about everywhere. I do wonder why people are moving to South Dakota however.

South: Similar to previous years, over three quarters of the net growth for the entire region is attributable to Florida and Texas. The rest of the Atlantic coastal South is doing well in terms of domestic migration, except for Virginia, which people are now fleeing. The inland south continues to do badly, with only Tennessee and Arkansas (barely) growing.

West: California is of course losing massive amounts of people, and probably contributes more to the "rest of the west" gain than anywhere else, as Californians who leave the state seldom want to leave the west. New Mexico has been in the economic doldrums for awhile, and Alaska and Hawaii have been hard hit by the collapse in energy prices. Hawaii has long had out-migration of local residents due to the high cost of living. Everywhere else, the west is booming.
I don't think Maine is a surprise, as the southern portion around Portland seems to a place that people are looking into and aspects such as unincorporated land/places, its demographics and its outdoor amenities appeal to some folks. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.ny...?client=safari

Last edited by ckhthankgod; 01-03-2017 at 09:30 AM..
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Old 01-03-2017, 09:17 AM
 
Location: Dallas, TX and wherever planes fly
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South Dakota net migration I think is because of the oil industry there and sure jobs. Overall the coastal south and west are winning.
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Old 01-03-2017, 09:20 AM
 
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
.

Midwest: Awful just about everywhere. I do wonder why people are moving to South Dakota however.
Its not that bad. Several of those states have big populations (ie MI, OH, IL, etc) so losing a few thousand isn't much. It actually looks like the bleeding is slowing down a bit. IL is the major exception, of course. The state is in financial shambles, people are trying to get out left and right.
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Old 01-03-2017, 09:38 AM
 
3,965 posts, read 3,500,916 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG CATS View Post
Its not that bad. Several of those states have big populations (ie MI, OH, IL, etc) so losing a few thousand isn't much. It actually looks like the bleeding is slowing down a bit. IL is the major exception, of course. The state is in financial shambles, people are trying to get out left and right.


If you look at how much domestic outflow Michigan was having 8 years ago, their current estimates show a continued improvement.
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Old 01-03-2017, 09:48 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,443 posts, read 11,948,134 times
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Here's the states measured as a percentage off of the 2015 population total:

Northeast:
DC: 0.45%
Delaware: 0.32%
New Hampshire: 0.16%
Maine: 0.16%
Pennsylvania: -0.36%
Rhode Island: -0.36%
Massachusetts: -0.38%
Maryland: -0.44%
Vermont: -0.46%
New Jersey: -0.75%
Connecticut: -0.83%
New York: -0.97%


Midwest:
South Dakota: 0.11%
Minnesota: -0.03%
Missouri: -0.10%
Iowa: -0.11%
Nebraska: -0.11%
Indiana: -0.18%
Wisconsin: -0.21%
Ohio: -0.24%
Michigan: -0.28%
Kansas: -0.64%
North Dakota: -0.83%
Illinois: -0.89%


South:
Florida: 1.02%
South Carolina: 0.96%
North Carolina: 0.59%
Tennessee: 0.46%
Texas: 0.46%
Georgia: 0.36%
Arkansas: 0.01%
Alabama: -0.01%
Kentucky: -0.08%
Oklahoma: -0.10%
Louisiana: -0.26%
Virginia: -0.30%
Mississippi: -0.32%
West Virginia: -0.42%



West:
Oregon: 1.24%
Nevada: 1.20%
Idaho: 1.04%
Washington: 0.94%
Colorado: 0.92%
Arizona: 0.90%
Montana: 0.66%
Utah: 0.66%
California: -0.28%
New Mexico: -0.47%
Alaska: -0.62%
Hawaii: -0.70%
Wyoming: -0.74%
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Old 01-03-2017, 09:53 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,443 posts, read 11,948,134 times
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It is obvious when you look at the net migration as a percentage level rather than raw numbers that the Midwest is experiencing comparably small declines - outside of IL and KS, which are messes, and North Dakota, which is a small state feeling the effect of the oil bust. I can't help but think the Northeast declines being so high is in large part being driven by retirees however - there's a longstanding pattern of people from the Northeast retiring to Florida (and the coastal South more broadly).

Another thing which is clear is California's decline, even though it's over 100,000, is actually quite modest on a percentage term.

Finally, growth in the west is remarkably even. Every single state in the west which is has net domestic in-migration is seeing more rapid growth than any other states in the country besides Florida and South Carolina.
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Old 01-03-2017, 10:34 AM
 
1,851 posts, read 1,481,651 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG CATS View Post
Its not that bad. Several of those states have big populations (ie MI, OH, IL, etc) so losing a few thousand isn't much. It actually looks like the bleeding is slowing down a bit. IL is the major exception, of course. The state is in financial shambles, people are trying to get out left and right.
You know Illinois is not alone in this regard, so by that logic people should also be fleeing places like Texas. It's JOBS, Big Cat. People that lack college educations can't find JOBS in Illinois. This is only going to accelerate NATIONALLY as automation and outsourcing continues to take hold on low skill work. The difference will be places like IL, NY, and PA will have bottomed out by the time the south feels the economic crunch.

State Debt Ranking Percent GDP for 2017 - Charts

Debt as a percentage of GDP:
New York (22.71%)
South Carolina
Rhode Island
Washington
Florida
Kentucky
Illinois (18.45%)
Connecticut
California (17.18%)
Pennsylvania
Massachusetts
West Virginia
Colorado
New Jersey
Nevada
Hawaii
Texas (16.62%)
Kansas (16.50%)
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Old 01-03-2017, 01:02 PM
 
1,832 posts, read 1,257,760 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IrishIllini View Post
You know Illinois is not alone in this regard, so by that logic people should also be fleeing places like Texas. It's JOBS, Big Cat. People that lack college educations can't find JOBS in Illinois. This is only going to accelerate NATIONALLY as automation and outsourcing continues to take hold on low skill work. The difference will be places like IL, NY, and PA will have bottomed out by the time the south feels the economic crunch.

State Debt Ranking Percent GDP for 2017 - Charts

Debt as a percentage of GDP:
New York (22.71%)
South Carolina
Rhode Island
Washington
Florida
Kentucky
Illinois (18.45%)
Connecticut
California (17.18%)
Pennsylvania
Massachusetts
West Virginia
Colorado
New Jersey
Nevada
Hawaii
Texas (16.62%)
Kansas (16.50%)
Most of Texas isn't in "financial shambles." There is more to financial health than a debt to GDP ratio. Also, last I checked, most manufacturing is still in the Midwest so automation will disproportionately hit the Rust Belt.
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