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Old 04-08-2017, 11:42 AM
 
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New York went from the most populous state in 1970 to the fourth today. For years the state has lost population or stayed close to the same while states in the Sunbelt grew in population tremendously and continue to do so. I know it will take another 15-20 years or so, if not more, but if the current trends continue, which, if any state, do you think will pass New York in population? As for me, I could see Georgia or Arizona, or both, doing it.
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Old 04-08-2017, 12:59 PM
 
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I don't see Georgia or Arizona maintaining that pace in growth and factoring in as well Ohio having cities showing signs of revitalization or continued modest growth (Columbus and Cincinnati) along with modest growth in NY wouldn't expect them to overtake anyone but Pennsylvania and Illinois, which seem destined to continue losing ground or remaining stagnant. I would look to see Ohio pass Illinois and Pennsylvania by 2025 (along with Georgia and North Carolina) to take over 5th, 6th and 7th respectively.
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Old 04-08-2017, 01:25 PM
 
Location: Tampa
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Georgia and Arizona are so far behind in terms of population numbers that I don't think either is really in contention, especially given Arizona's future water shortage.

After the big 4 (CA, TX, FL, NY) the population #s per state drop off a table. It's hard to predict who could make up that ground because I don't see NY dramatically losing vast amounts of people any time soon.
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Old 04-08-2017, 02:16 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
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None. New York is larger than both Arizona and Georgia combined in population. And New York is pretty much guaranteed to stay stagnant, at worst, in population growth, thanks to NYC. Barring some kind of catastrophe, I don't see any other state catching New York in the next 50 years. Certainly not Pennsylvania or Illinois, who are the closest at 7 million less.
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Old 04-08-2017, 03:01 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kemba View Post
New York went from the most populous state in 1970 to the fourth today. For years the state has lost population or stayed close to the same while states in the Sunbelt grew in population tremendously and continue to do so. I know it will take another 15-20 years or so, if not more, but if the current trends continue, which, if any state, do you think will pass New York in population? As for me, I could see Georgia or Arizona, or both, doing it.
1980 is the only official census in which NY State has declined in population. It has about 1.5 million people according to the 2015 estimate than it had in 1970.

I think the thing people forget is that NYC is a multi state metro, where moving to the suburbs could mean moving to another state. So, you can have people leave the state, but still be a part of the same metro area.
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Old 04-08-2017, 03:18 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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None.

The population drop off from #4 (New York) to the current #5 (Illinois) is immense, it is 7 million (which is the entire population of Arizona right now, by the way). It would take the scope of a normal human beings' lifetime to overcome that gap. California, Texas, and Florida are all anomalies, given their locations in the South or West (in Texas' case both South and West), in addition to either bordering foreign territories and/or neighboring foreign islands, they also had the demographical tools to work with that 46 other states do not have at their disposal.

That being said, if there were one that could make things interesting, it would likely have to be North Carolina. I have more trust in states that have multiple large population centers as opposed to states that only have one. Look at the current 4 largest states right now (CA, TX, FL, NY) and all four of them have more than 4 metropolises with 1 million or more people. In California you have (in descending order by size) Greater Los Angeles, Greater San Francisco Bay Area, Greater San Diego, Greater Sacramento, and Greater Fresno. With Greater Bakersfield expected to top 1 million within a decade or less. In Texas you have Greater Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, Greater Houston, Greater San Antonio, Greater Austin, Greater El Paso-Las Cruces, and the Rio Grande Valley. Six areas with more than 1 million inhabitants. In Florida you have Greater Miami/Fort Lauderdale, Greater Tampa Bay Area, Greater Orlando, Greater Jacksonville, and the Greater Cape Coral-Naples area. In addition to Sarasota, which has over 1 million people but will likely be absorbed in Greater Tampa Bay Area in the near future. In New York state you have Greater New York, Greater Buffalo, Greater Rochester, and Greater Albany. All four with more than 1 million people.

See if you look at the template for the 4 largest states in America today, they are all states that have sizable and adequate number of major metropolises. All four have at least 4, at minimum, that exceed a million people. States that have multiple large cities always have an advantage, when things break down or cool off in one city, there are others to pick up the slack and keep the state afloat. In one-city centric states, the highest risk comes from the fact that the state's overall trajectory is entirely dependent on the health of one city and that city's surrounding suburbs and satellite cities (so basically one metropolis).

I don't think anywhere will surpass New York as the 4th most populous state in my lifetime. The gap from 20 million to 13 million, which is the current gap from #4 to #5 is just too immense, and with the rapid cooling of population growth all across the board throughout the United States, I don't see a gap like that being made up in the course and duration of my life. I'm just 26 years old too. If there was one state that I'd say having the most potential to do so, it would be North Carolina. It has the foundations in place and I think the Raleigh-Durham area will actually post an accelerated population growth in the coming decades, it will pick up the pace, I feel so too will towns in coastal North Carolina. Enough to surpass New York state? Nahhh, I don't think so, but enough to take the #5 spot and begin chipping away at that massive gap between the #4 and #5.
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Old 04-08-2017, 04:57 PM
 
266 posts, read 214,551 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a person View Post
Georgia and Arizona are so far behind in terms of population numbers that I don't think either is really in contention, especially given Arizona's future water shortage.

After the big 4 (CA, TX, FL, NY) the population #s per state drop off a table. It's hard to predict who could make up that ground because I don't see NY dramatically losing vast amounts of people any time soon.
AZ is doing amazing work conserving water. I dont think thats biggest issue for Phoenix's future growth. The problem for phoenix is that the summers are lasting longer than ever and it's driving people mad. Summers used to be 4-5 months in phoenix. Nowadays they're 6-7 months and 8 month summers could be coming soon.

I've spoken to a few transplants in the past couple of years and it was the summers that made them leave phx. They gave up ameneties and lower COL just to get out of the AZ oven. Don't be shocked if AZ starts to slow down soon.

Ten day forecast
60s- 70s for Fresno aka the norcal desert

Phoenix high 80s to mid 90s

Summer has arrived in Phx. At least there's some spring wind to help with cool down.

Last edited by Flovis; 04-08-2017 at 05:48 PM..
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Old 04-08-2017, 05:19 PM
 
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Is Georgia growing at all outside Metro Atlanta?
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Old 04-08-2017, 08:15 PM
 
Location: Appalachian New York, Formerly Louisiana
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Depends, is all of New England going to merge into one state?
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Old 04-09-2017, 06:59 PM
 
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Originally Posted by kdb05f View Post
Is Georgia growing at all outside Metro Atlanta?
Yes it is. The rest of the state is not growing as fast as Metro Atlanta, but growing it is. The coast is seeing significant growth.
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