U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > General U.S.
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Closed Thread Start New Thread
 
Old 04-15-2017, 03:35 PM
 
28 posts, read 15,951 times
Reputation: 18

Advertisements

I saw this old link:
Houston 2nd largest city in the U.S. in the future?

It was closed so I couldn't reply so I started something new. I simply found it a bit funny in hindsight b/c there were people considering it wouldn't even make 3rd spot. And now witheir what we know, current trends, populations, it appears Houston will surpass Chicago as early as the next 6-7 years by 2025. Quite easily in fact. With some luck it could happen inside 4-5 years. Houston will pass Chicago in just a few years, that's not an if, it's simply a when.

But the weirder thing is the idea that it couldn't even possibly pass LA? Hmm? Never? LA is around 3.88mil people with just a trickle of yearly growth now. Houston meanwhile and Harris county in general, along with all major TX cities, is growing by about 2% or more annually, and by 2030 could easily be at ~3.1mil. So, I would say even the OPs (from original link above) estimate of "it could happen in about 60 years..." is just a *tad* off the mark It could happen in just another 25 years or so. Now New York I will give you is a looonger ways off but I just dont see LA being so insurmountable.

This means nor says nothing about the cultures or significance of said cities. They are all great in their own ways. Each has its unique charms and provides something different. Its just that Texas cities in general have an extremely dominant growth rate that is not likely to diminish for decades. It's a result of the incredibly low cost of living. Relative to these other places TX is *extremely* inexpensive. In Austin, for example, one can live like a virtual king in the suburbs of Round Rock or San Marcos or Cedar Park in a 3000sf or 3500sf ultra modern family home for $350k. Even that is "high". You could do it even for as low as $250k but it would be a little less fancy, a little less posh. And, yes, there are million dollar homes and ultra mansions in the Austin area and neighborhoods but my point is you couldn't touch the kind of living you can have in a TX city for $300k anywhere else in this country - certainly not those places mentioned. In addition, the ultra low unemployment and zero state or local taxes bring people to TX in droves.

There are currently 3 of the top 10 largest cities in the US in Texas: Houston, Dallas, SA. And within roughly a year, maybe 2, it will be 4 (add Austin). Austin is now number 11 just *very* slightly (about 50k people) behind San Jose at number 10. It will undoubtedly pass it in the next year or two. That's a testament to the items I mentioned earlier, and the very strong migration, not only from northern states to the sun belt, but particularly Californian's to Texas.

Just thought that old article was interesting. Thoughts?

 
Old 04-15-2017, 05:53 PM
 
412 posts, read 305,962 times
Reputation: 271
LA is about 12-17 million though. Doubt Houston is going to surpass that.

Also, Dallas-Fort Worth is larger than Houston when counting metro.
 
Old 04-15-2017, 05:54 PM
PDF
 
11,386 posts, read 10,515,233 times
Reputation: 6606
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayVanderbilt View Post
LA is about 12-17 million though. Doubt Houston is going to surpass that.

Also, Dallas-Fort Worth is larger than Houston when counting metro.
LA is 4 million. The OP was referencing city populations, not metro.
 
Old 04-15-2017, 05:59 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
292 posts, read 284,552 times
Reputation: 322
It's impossible to predict but it could happen. I wonder the age of the OP?
 
Old 04-15-2017, 06:06 PM
 
412 posts, read 305,962 times
Reputation: 271
Quote:
Originally Posted by PDF View Post
LA is 4 million. The OP was referencing city populations, not metro.
City populations are not fair comparisons. Better to compare urban areas. Would you not say Santa Monica or Long Beach to be part of LA for example? There is nothing separating them from the rest of the city.
 
Old 04-15-2017, 06:10 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
292 posts, read 284,552 times
Reputation: 322
I think this thread has bad timing. Because Houston is taking a hit on its economy right now and both Los Angeles and even Chicago are doing pretty good.
 
Old 04-15-2017, 09:18 PM
 
Location: Katy,Texas
3,499 posts, read 1,698,631 times
Reputation: 2212
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayVanderbilt View Post
City populations are not fair comparisons. Better to compare urban areas. Would you not say Santa Monica or Long Beach to be part of LA for example? There is nothing separating them from the rest of the city.
While I don't agree with him he said Houston "passing" up those cities would have nothing to do with importance or prestige, but how he feels on paper Houston could be the largest city in the U.S (only counting city limits).
 
Old 04-15-2017, 09:46 PM
PDF
 
11,386 posts, read 10,515,233 times
Reputation: 6606
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayVanderbilt View Post
City populations are not fair comparisons. Better to compare urban areas. Would you not say Santa Monica or Long Beach to be part of LA for example? There is nothing separating them from the rest of the city.
It's a fair comparison when you look at what the top 10 largest cities in this country are, which is the standard the OP was going by. Most people are going to be looking at city populations, and at the end of the day that's what really matters.
 
Old 04-15-2017, 11:08 PM
 
266 posts, read 214,646 times
Reputation: 238
LA has a trump card up their sleeve tho: That 60 billion dollar subway system that's being built. If LA wants to urbanize like Brooklyn/manhattan, then Houston has no chance in our lifetime.
 
Old 04-15-2017, 11:34 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
292 posts, read 284,552 times
Reputation: 322
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flovis View Post
LA has a trump card up their sleeve tho: That 60 billion dollar subway system that's being built. If LA wants to urbanize like Brooklyn/manhattan, then Houston has no chance in our lifetime.
I'm not so sure of that. Houston will probably vote on more public transportation this November and is densifying as well.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Closed Thread

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > General U.S.
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top