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Old 04-17-2017, 09:13 AM
 
Location: Queen Creek, AZ
5,200 posts, read 7,874,574 times
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After the 2020 Census, I was wondering, what new CSAs do you think we could potentially see?


Here are some possibilities:
  • Phoenix-Tucson AZ CSA
  • San Antonio-Austin TX CSA
  • Orlando-Lakeland-Tampa FL CSA
  • New Orleans-Baton Rouge LA CSA
  • Chicago-Milwaukee IL-IN-WI CSA
  • Baltimore-Washington-Richmond DC-VA-MD-WV CSA (adding the Richmond MSA)
  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-San Diego CA CSA (adding the San Diego MSA)
  • San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland-Sacramento CA CSA (adding the Sacramento MSA)
What do you think?

Last edited by Pink Jazz; 04-17-2017 at 09:22 AM..
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Old 04-17-2017, 09:21 AM
 
21,182 posts, read 30,336,326 times
Reputation: 19590
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pink Jazz View Post
After the 2020 Census, I was wondering, what new CSAs do you think we could potentially see?


Here are some possibilities:
  • Phoenix-Tucson AZ CSA
  • San Antonio-Austin TX CSA
  • Orlando-Lakeland-Tampa FL CSA
  • New Orleans-Baton Rouge LA CSA
  • Baltimore-Washington-Richmond DC-VA-MD-WV CSA (adding the Richmond MSA)
  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-San Diego CA CSA (adding the San Diego MSA)
  • San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland-Sacramento CA CSA (adding Sacramento MSA)
  • Chicago-Milwaukee IL-IN-WI CSA (adding Milwaukee MSA)
What do you think?
Phoenix-Tucson perhaps, I don't think San Antonio- Austin has enough in between yet, the same for Tampa Bay-Lakeland-Orlando, New Orleans-Baton Rouge maybe, Washington-Baltimore quite possibly (Richmond is too far removed), LA-San Diego is too geographically separated, same with Sacramento and Chicago-Milwaukee while plausible don't see enough new growth to trigger change.
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Old 04-17-2017, 09:26 AM
 
Location: Queen Creek, AZ
5,200 posts, read 7,874,574 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle19125 View Post
Phoenix-Tucson perhaps, I don't think San Antonio- Austin has enough in between yet, the same for Tampa Bay-Lakeland-Orlando, New Orleans-Baton Rouge maybe, Washington-Baltimore quite possibly (Richmond is too far removed), LA-San Diego is too geographically separated, same with Sacramento and Chicago-Milwaukee while plausible don't see enough new growth to trigger change.
There is already a Washington-Baltimore CSA, and this possibility may add the Richmond MSA to the CSA. Remember that MSAs and CSAs are based on commute patterns. There had to be a certain degree of commuting between a portion of one MAD or microSA to qualify as a CSA, but not enough to the level to be considered as one large MSA.
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Old 04-17-2017, 09:28 AM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,631 posts, read 8,315,973 times
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I don't believe that a single one of those will happen in 2023 or anytime soon at all, if ever.


You should take a look into commuting rates, information provided by the census bureau between metropolitan areas (county by county), not a single one of those you listed has more than 3.8% commuter interchange and 3.8% is the highest among the pairs you listed. You need 15% to merge places into a unified CSA. So none of those are happening for decades to come, if ever.


However, more realistic and possible for the 2023 census redefinition are;


- Chicago + Rockford + South Bend


- Tampa + Sarasota/North Port + Lakeland


- Orlando + Melbourne/Palm Bay


- San Francisco Bay Area + Modesto-Merced


- Washington DC-Baltimore + Salisbury


- Cincinnati + Dayton


- Austin + Kileen-Temple-Fort Hood


- Harrisburg + Lancaster

- Omaha + Lincoln


- Dallas/Fort Worth + Ardmore

These that you see above will be the most prolific redefinition gainers in 2023 and even then, some of these may not happen for another decade following 2023. The ones in your list are largely just far out of reach. They don't have the data to back up a realistic merger in the 2020s, if ever.


Here is the census bureau link where you can access the necessary information: https://www.census.gov/hhes/commuting/
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Old 04-17-2017, 09:28 AM
 
Location: ATLANTA
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I have long seen the Atlanta-Athens-Clark-Macon-Bibb-Sandy Spring, GA. Combined Statistical Area in the making. Warner Robins will end up backup in the Macon Metro Area Category. With that add on alone and Atlanta's continued growth, the CSA would be hitting at the door of 7 million easily...

Last edited by oobanks; 04-17-2017 at 09:53 AM..
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Old 04-17-2017, 09:42 AM
 
3,952 posts, read 3,485,687 times
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If any of these get aligned as CSA in 2023 I vote to ban the metric from being able to be used for comparisons.


Baltimore and Washington are not even 40 miles from core to core so that makes some sense. CSA's will be completely useless when you have two cores 90 miles apart being joined for statistical purposes. Even with cross commuting at a 15% threshold.


I'm trying not to cringe at homers using this metric to bolster a size argument over cities that are clearly larger.
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Old 04-17-2017, 10:07 AM
 
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
3,984 posts, read 3,448,313 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
If any of these get aligned as CSA in 2023 I vote to ban the metric from being able to be used for comparisons.


Baltimore and Washington are not even 40 miles from core to core so that makes some sense. CSA's will be completely useless when you have two cores 90 miles apart being joined for statistical purposes. Even with cross commuting at a 15% threshold.


I'm trying not to cringe at homers using this metric to bolster a size argument over cities that are clearly larger.
I think the only two real sense makers for the CSA metric are DC-Baltimore, and SF-SJ-Oakland simply because there are not other examples of them in the country nor the rest of North America. Those other places cannot really replicate either CSA because one, their populations still are not as large in a close proximity, and second the two msa's don't sit immediately on top of each other like in the example of DC-Baltimore or SF/SJ/Oakland. Those two CSA's actually make a heck of a lot of sense to be combined in comparison to many other stand alone city/metros, because in actuality MSA is simply under counting those two regions as a whole. Sure there is more gravity to one central core or the other, but there is a much larger population that make up the Bay Area and DMV-Balt than fits in their MSA's.

The only issue has been withering it down to how much of each county should be included versus how much of the urban area populace truly makes up those regions. All CSA's are too large and do over extend due to county boundaries making up the criteria.

The only other solution would be that places like DC-Balt, and Bay Area becoming one MSA, while the broader definition of CSA would increase to the point that we include almost entire states.

Last edited by the resident09; 04-17-2017 at 10:41 AM..
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Old 04-17-2017, 10:47 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
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They pretty much are headed for entire states. I still think it's laughable that Port St Lucie is included with the Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA.
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Old 04-17-2017, 11:02 AM
 
Location: BMORE!
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Baltimore and DC becoming a single MSA..... unlikely. Baltimore and DC functioning as a single MSA: Impossible.
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Old 04-17-2017, 11:43 AM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
3,511 posts, read 2,968,854 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facts Kill Rhetoric View Post
I don't believe that a single one of those will happen in 2023 or anytime soon at all, if ever.


You should take a look into commuting rates, information provided by the census bureau between metropolitan areas (county by county), not a single one of those you listed has more than 3.8% commuter interchange and 3.8% is the highest among the pairs you listed. You need 15% to merge places into a unified CSA. So none of those are happening for decades to come, if ever.


However, more realistic and possible for the 2023 census redefinition are;

- Washington DC-Baltimore + Salisbury ]
Guess this one hinges on commuting between Dorchester County and Wicomico County. Though if it ever happens, that would mean metropolitan DC/Baltimore would technically stretch over 3 hours and 140 miles, all the way to Assateague Island

Quote:
Originally Posted by the resident09 View Post
I think the only two real sense makers for the CSA metric are DC-Baltimore, and SF-SJ-Oakland simply because there are not other examples of them in the country nor the rest of North America. Those other places cannot really replicate either CSA because one, their populations still are not as large in a close proximity, and second the two msa's don't sit immediately on top of each other like in the example of DC-Baltimore or SF/SJ/Oakland. Those two CSA's actually make a heck of a lot of sense to be combined in comparison to many other stand alone city/metros, because in actuality MSA is simply under counting those two regions as a whole. Sure there is more gravity to one central core or the other, but there is a much larger population that make up the Bay Area and DMV-Balt than fits in their MSA's.

The only issue has been withering it down to how much of each county should be included versus how much of the urban area populace truly makes up those regions. All CSA's are too large and do over extend due to county boundaries making up the criteria.

The only other solution would be that places like DC-Balt, and Bay Area becoming one MSA, while the broader definition of CSA would increase to the point that we include almost entire states.
+1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
They pretty much are headed for entire states. I still think it's laughable that Port St Lucie is included with the Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA.
Some CSAs are already the size of entire states--Greater Houston is larger than the state of New Jersey. And yea, surprised that they don't just throw in Cape Coral-Naples in there, Everglades be damned.
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