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I think Chicago is going to be the next Detroit. I know people are very defensive about it, but when you have people fleeing a major city like that because of crime, it causes cascading problems. It lowers the tax base (although probably from working class areas first), which exacerbates already existing problems (less money for police and other services over time). So they'll probably raise taxes and other municipal revenue sources, which causes even more people to flee. Because, even though the crime problem is most likely concentrated in working class and poorer areas, the tax base is concentrated in middle and upper class areas. And it just begins a downward spiral.
So, unless Chicago really tackles their crime problem, it could get very ugly very fast.
Certainly somewhere in the Sunbelt...the rustbelt already went through its freefall, including Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Buffalo, Chicago, St. Louis, Rochester, and Syracuse.
I think Chicago is going to be the next Detroit. I know people are very defensive about it, but when you have people fleeing a major city like that because of crime, it causes cascading problems. It lowers the tax base (although probably from working class areas first), which exacerbates already existing problems (less money for police and other services over time). So they'll probably raise taxes and other municipal revenue sources, which causes even more people to flee. Because, even though the crime problem is most likely concentrated in working class and poorer areas, the tax base is concentrated in middle and upper class areas. And it just begins a downward spiral.
So, unless Chicago really tackles their crime problem, it could get very ugly very fast.
Nah, Chicago is tipping, but it won't tip that far, and it won't tip over. Not sure if it's wishful thinking on your part, but Chicago has too much going for it.....even with its problems.
Greenville SC possibly. Clemson University has a automobile engineering research and graduate program here, and BMW's largest plant is located here as well as a lot of auto supplier companies.
Greenville SC possibly. Clemson University has a automobile engineering research and graduate program here, and BMW's largest plant is located here as well as a lot of auto supplier companies.
Dependence on the auto industry is never a good thing. The presence of the auto industry as a dominance in a local economy is like sitting under an economic sword of Damocles. The doom will come, the only question is when. The auto industry created much of the "rust belt". For two generations hundreds of thousands moved to the auto dependent state of Michigan, and to a lesser extent its neighbors. We all know what happened.
Dependence on the auto industry is never a good thing. The presence of the auto industry as a dominance in a local economy is like sitting under an economic sword of Damocles. The doom will come, the only question is when. The auto industry created much of the "rust belt". For two generations hundreds of thousands moved to the auto dependent state of Michigan, and to a lesser extent its neighbors. We all know what happened.
I think you're over emphasizing the mere presence of the auto industry as a contributing factor. The oil industry goes through cycles. Banking and financial services industries go through cycles. Aerospace is cyclical ect ect. The automotive centers away from the rust belt (like in South Carolina) are not nearly as likely to suffer the same fate as what happened in the Midwestern cities. Not to mention the fact that for this narrative you've been pushing, someone would have to ignore the political dysfunction that contributed to Detroit's collapse even more so than economics.
I would argue that had the auto manufacturers not bogged themselves down with such heavy union contracts this conversation would be entirely different. The places where the auto industry does not have a union base have fared better with more stable cycles. I feel like it's disingenuous to claim it is the auto industry alone, and ignore the fact that all of the rust belt places that experienced declines (including other heavy industries) were also all places with a strong organized labor history.
A "next Detroit" would very likely arrive to that position on circumstances that are quite different.
Chicago is not becoming the next Detroit, not even close. The blight in Detroit is widespread, with the exceptions of Wayne State, parts of Downtown and a few areas next to downtown. How can this be compared to the North side of Chicago which runs all the way from Downtown to Northwestern University. Neighborhoods which include the Gold Coast, Lincoln Park, Lakeview, Loyola University, Depaul University, Wriggleyville and on and on. IMO the second best urban area in the US next to Manhattan. People that state the Chicago is becoming the next Detroit have probably spent zero time exploring the city.
The problems in Detroit happened as a result of the unions. SC is a right to work to state.
Oh Puh-leeze. The problems in Detroit happened because of two overarching reasons:
A) The morons who ran the Big Three couldn't figure out how to make cars good enough to rival the Japanese automakers. What's worse, The Big Three figured that they didn't even have to try to compete with the Japanese. And by the time they figured it out they did, and how to do it, it was too late for Detroit. That's not the UAW's fault. That's management's fault, plain and simple.
B) The city never addressed its racial issues and was dishonest about them for decades and decades. The riots only accelerated white Detroiters exit from the city (which had already been losing population to the 'burbs, though at a normal type rate). But the police brutality in the city, the housinging and job discrimination, only worked to harden feelings on both sides across the racial divide. Few people in power in Detroit in the 50s and 60s honestly talked about any of this, and the city is still paying the price.
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