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Old 07-04-2017, 07:26 PM
 
Location: Chicago
5,904 posts, read 6,542,365 times
Reputation: 5367

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Chicagoan throwing in my 2 cents worth here:

Chicago's future? Richer, more gentrified, whiter, typical "successful" US city that squeezes out the poor and minorities. Chicago is bleeding black population. White, hispanic and Asian populations have not declined. How should we feel about that: being the center for the rich, being so gentrified, squeezing out the poor and minorities: lousy. but welcome to modern America.

Highest murder rate in the US? Not even close. We have the highest # of murders in the US because the city is such a large one and frankly our murder rate and numbers is higher than NYC or LA.

But the safety issue is mainly in a few high crime neighborhoods on the South and West sides.

In the core of the city, downtown an adjacent areas, the city is a boom town. No city is has more downtown residential construction than Chicago. Cranes in the air everywhere. Huge major projects being worked. Wanda Vista, an 1000+ ft., 95 story condo/hotel tower rises along the Chicago River....the smallest and cheapest condo in the building on the lowest floors will set you back a $1,000,000. Other such residential towers are rising in the city's core. Does any seriously f'ing think that sounds like a city in decline.

Maybe I am getting a little defensive here, but mostly I am laughing my head off at the mind boggling, off the wall, bat s**t crazy ignorance so many people have about Chicago. Ours is one of the most desirable cities in the US. By far. We are a magnet for the best of entertainment, dining, culture, an utter gem of a city.

Am I worried about Chicago's future? Hell no! We are incredibly great today, and we will be greater tomorrow.

I haven't put down any city here....all I've done is note how much garbage has been given my some folks here about Chicago. I'm hardly going to put down great American cities like Boston, New York, Washington, San Francisco and Los Angeles. Chicago is peer to them all, one of America's elite.

And I am damned proud and damned lucky to call this incredible city my home.

Last edited by edsg25; 07-04-2017 at 07:35 PM..
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Old 07-04-2017, 07:26 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
9,013 posts, read 2,738,961 times
Reputation: 6945
Quote:
Originally Posted by foobar2038 View Post
U6 is different than U3. It is not just a magnitude difference.
I am perfectly aware of the differences between the two. And it is rare for the U6 pattern to be different from the U3 pattern; with few exceptions if you compare the U3 rate of a locale to the U3 rate of a different locale, and then do the same for the respective U6 rates, they will still rank the same, it's just that the U6 numbers for both will be higher than their U3 numbers.
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Old 07-04-2017, 07:29 PM
 
Location: Northeast states
10,675 posts, read 8,199,563 times
Reputation: 2898
Hartford, Waterbury, Bridgeport CT
Paterson, NJ Chester PA, Wilmington DE, Trenton NJ Newark NJ
Lawrence MA
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Old 07-04-2017, 07:32 PM
 
106 posts, read 64,848 times
Reputation: 66
https://www.bls.gov/opub/gp/pdf/gp14_27.pdf Employment/Population Ratio a very important number.

In the most recent table available: for example 74% of men in Houston have a job. In Detroit 53% of men have a job. This makes a huge difference in terms of how well a city is doing. This is more important than the official unemployment rate for most cities outside of retirement communities.
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Old 07-04-2017, 07:39 PM
 
Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife)
13,223 posts, read 17,966,293 times
Reputation: 14673
Quote:
Originally Posted by Simpsonvilllian View Post
The problems in Detroit happened as a result of the unions. SC is a right to work to state.
Right-to-work laws won't do a damn thing to stop the inevitable automation of manufacturing.

The South is simply an intermediary step in the life cycle of an industry. Historically, industry originated in the North, then moved to the South, and then moved overseas or went robot. It happened with textiles, and it'll happen with automobiles.
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Old 07-04-2017, 07:48 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
9,013 posts, read 2,738,961 times
Reputation: 6945
Quote:
Originally Posted by foobar2038 View Post
https://www.bls.gov/opub/gp/pdf/gp14_27.pdf Employment/Population Ratio a very important number.

In the most recent table available: for example 74% of men in Houston have a job. In Detroit 53% of men have a job. This makes a huge difference in terms of how well a city is doing. This is more important than the official unemployment rate for most cities outside of retirement communities.
"Men?" I suppose women just don't count.

Once again we find someone trying to cherry-pick stats to try to support their point.

From your link:

Civilian labor force participation rate
Detroit: 59.2%
Houston: 67.8%
Los Angeles: 63.9%

Now in this case Houston is outperforming the other two cities, but not by nearly as much as if one looked only at men.

Quote:
outside of retirement communities
And likewise, if a large percentage of people in, say, Detroit, compared to Houston, are of retirement age, then in reality it really isn't all that true to claim that the LFPR is "more important than the official unemployment rate."

I don't have MSA level data, but it just so happens that Michigan has the 10th oldest population of all US states:
https://www.thestreet.com/story/1295...n-america.html

Whereas Texas has the 4th youngest population:
https://www.infoplease.com/us/states/youngest-states
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Old 07-04-2017, 07:49 PM
 
Location: Chicago
5,904 posts, read 6,542,365 times
Reputation: 5367
Which city is the next Detroit? Is it possible that maybe the answer to that question is:

ALL OF THEM????

We love to talk the rise and fall of cities here on the forum. But nations go through the same cycles and America, in the eye of many, is a nation in decline. Perhaps deep decline. And, if so, maybe all our cities vis-a-vis cities in other parts of the world are and will be in decline.
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Old 07-04-2017, 08:08 PM
 
Location: Greenville SC 'Waterfall City'
7,583 posts, read 4,008,695 times
Reputation: 2926
Quote:
Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi View Post
Right-to-work laws won't do a damn thing to stop the inevitable automation of manufacturing.

The South is simply an intermediary step in the life cycle of an industry. Historically, industry originated in the North, then moved to the South, and then moved overseas or went robot. It happened with textiles, and it'll happen with automobiles.
Sounds like you have a great crystal ball there.

Most if not all of the car manufacturing plants in the south are from overseas, not the north.

Car manufacturing is not a low profit margin industry like textiles. If you take closed shop unions out of the picture.
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Old 07-04-2017, 08:56 PM
 
Location: Downtown Phoenix, AZ
18,927 posts, read 6,877,659 times
Reputation: 5856
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Bond 007 View Post
Phoenix. But not for another 30 years or so. Or maybe Las Vegas.

All of the other cities people have mentioned here have already gone through their own "Detroit" era and have mostly bottomed out and are starting to look better.
How so? Things are booming here, and don't say because of water, because we use less water every year despite population growth, and use less than we are alotted
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Old 07-04-2017, 09:07 PM
 
Location: Kansas City, MISSOURI
9,013 posts, read 2,738,961 times
Reputation: 6945
It has nothing to do with water.

One reason is, once all those baby boomers start to die off in greater numbers, all those retirement villages are going to start emptying out and many of them will start to look like retirement Detroits.

But the main reason is, large quantities of cheap housing - which are found in abundance in places like Phoenix - tend to go downhill quickly. It is not hard to imagine that the large swaths of Phoenix housing that look like this will soon start to look like this, especially as Latin American immigration starts to dry up (which is already starting to happen).

But as I said, I'm not expecting it to happen for, like, another 30 years.
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