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"Wherever it goes" is deceptive. Amazon is not going anywhere. I agree they want a deep talent pool, and a different geographic region would offer that, but where this mystical area is becomes the question. And perhaps what this thread is really all about.
Texas is indeed a very good answer. I have been saying this all along, and I still believe I am correct.
However, Amazon will take their time with this and it is simply brilliant what they are doing. Kind of like a wake-up call to cities to get their act together as in making their cities more business friendly.
Okay, wherever it expands. I agree, whatever happens, our city will always be the main nerve center for the company.
I do disagree about Texas. I question the extent to which it meets the criteria of the RFP. But I respect your opinion on the matter.
My personal "educated hope" is that Bezos will pick a liberal city in the north. Or even Atlanta would be acceptable in some ways. Part of it is the urbanist in me that categorically rejects the Joel Kotkin mentality and hopes Bezos will too.
Beyond that though I think the reserves of talent are simply larger in places like Boston and Chicago. They are "brain-gainers" so to speak and they offer a lot in terms of amenities, transit, range of housing options. Boston's drawback is the COL. Chicago's is crime/politics. But I think they both hit a good deal closer to the Amazon bullseye than Austin or Dallas.
Okay, wherever it expands. I agree, whatever happens, our city will always be the main nerve center for the company.
I do disagree about Texas. I question the extent to which it meets the criteria of the RFP. But I respect your opinion on the matter.
My personal "educated hope" is that Bezos will pick a liberal city in the north. Or even Atlanta would be acceptable in some ways. Part of it is the urbanist in me that categorically rejects the Joel Kotkin mentality and hopes Bezos will too.
Beyond that though I think the reserves of talent are simply larger in places like Boston and Chicago. They are "brain-gainers" so to speak and they offer a lot in terms of amenities, transit, range of housing options. Boston's drawback is the COL. Chicago's is crime/politics. But I think they both hit a good deal closer to the Amazon bullseye than Austin or Dallas.
I don't think we disagree much on this. (except for the Texas issue, but we shall see how this plays out).
The new Rainier Square agreement is big, and unless it collapses somehow, this is a true indication that Amazon is firm on Seattle as their #1 headquarters.
Amazon is indeed looking for another geographical area to compliment Seattle. I actually think this is a good move on their part to the betterment of the company. The bigger picture is how companies today meld technology to basic services and the whole process is indeed fascinating. Amazon simply is the best at it right now, and Seattle is certainly a good place to be located with the tech climate there.
As tech expands, Amazon expands and it is inevitable that other parts of the country will become part of their universe. The future will be interesting to see who can compete with them in this new world, but I would bet there will be many that will indeed compete.
Okay but let's not ignore the elephant in the room which is that Amazon feels that it will eventually be constrained in Seattle. If it didn't see the writing on the wall in terms of its ability to expand, would it be looking elsewhere?
Personally, to be honest, I don't see Amazon going South to a place like Georgia. Definitely not North Carolina because most companies don't want to be associated with their hard-right politics.
It will come down to the usual suspects - NY, DC, Denver, Chicago or Boston -- maybe Pittsburgh, Philly or Baltimore but that's a maybe.
Personally, to be honest, I don't see Amazon going South to a place like Georgia. Definitely not North Carolina because most companies don't want to be associated with their hard-right politics.
It will come down to the usual suspects- NY, DC, Denver, Chicago or Boston -- maybe Pittsburgh, Philly or Baltimore but that's a maybe.
The "usual suspects" in corporate expansions/relocations include Southern metros like Atlanta, Dallas, Austin, Nashville, Charlotte, etc.
Amazon admitted it outgrew Seattle with 40,000 employees, with a population of 3.7 million people. Also include poaching employees from Microsoft, and including nearby Portland and Vancouver for their talent pool. I wouldn't expect any city smaller than Seattle. The only reason they stated "more than 1 million people" was because they wanted as much publicity as possible.
Denver is probably out because it has 1 million less people, and is basically on an island with no nearby population centers for talent. Most employees would have to be relocated, and do you think Amazon is going to want to fund tens of thousands of relocation packages to pull people from the coasts every year? Also keep in mind the average turn over rate of Amazon is around 1 year, so it will be an on going cost burden.
Philadelphia metro (6 Million)
DC metro (6 Million)
Atlanta metro (5.7 Million)
Boston metro (4.6 Million)
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Seattle metro (3.7 Million)
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Denver metro (2.7 Million)
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Austin metro (2 Million)
DC, Philadelphia, Boston, and Atlanta are also within a few hours of other MAJOR metro areas with millions of workers and dozens of Universities.
Think less about the choo-choo's and the lifestyle, and think about the metro areas themselves and how they are going to retain talent. I'm sure Amazon would love to dip into the tech talent of the East Coast (specifically the North East), but are limited by the amount of people who refuse to leave their home/family (a problem already admitted by Amazon).
Also, completely ignore everything that the NYT article mentioned. Amazon is already WELL aware of what cities offer.
Okay, wherever it expands. I agree, whatever happens, our city will always be the main nerve center for the company.
I do disagree about Texas. I question the extent to which it meets the criteria of the RFP. But I respect your opinion on the matter.
My personal "educated hope" is that Bezos will pick a liberal city in the north. Or even Atlanta would be acceptable in some ways. Part of it is the urbanist in me that categorically rejects the Joel Kotkin mentality and hopes Bezos will too.
Beyond that though I think the reserves of talent are simply larger in places like Boston and Chicago. They are "brain-gainers" so to speak and they offer a lot in terms of amenities, transit, range of housing options. Boston's drawback is the COL. Chicago's is crime/politics. But I think they both hit a good deal closer to the Amazon bullseye than Austin or Dallas.
If I could rep you again, I would, because your logic seems to me, at least, right on. This stuff with the Amazon HQ is so, so interesting, it seems almost like a form of the movie Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory, and waiting to see what city will get the golden ticket. But I think like the golden ticket winner in the movie, Charlie Bucket, who Willy the contest sponsor had hoped would win, the chosen city is already on a very short list with specific criteria as to who the winner will be.
Texas, in my opinion, is a no go in my mind as well. If you listen to the Bezos interview, he wants an urban setting with transit in a downtown city location. No Texas city is near the Bull's eye on that wish list. Bezos also seems very liberal, which really would eliminate most southern areas, and make others like Atlanta lukewarm. I would agree Boston and Chicago would be on the short list, Boston being a college center and educated, and according to the latest data, Chicago is the most educated of the largest 5 cities, and continuing to ascend rapidly. Philadelphia fits the criteria, but it is has so much further to climb, even though it is doing just that. As far as liberal, Chicago and Boston are as liberal as they come.
As I said before, if it is between Boston and Chicago, and all things are equal, I think Chicago would get it because it has the space to accommodate both a new HQ easier and the housing to accommodate such a large influx that is actually affordable and won't strain the city. There are thousands of apt. units being built in the city, and 200 plus suburbs of every income level to handle both the top and the bottom of the ladder. Chicago, according to Bloomberg, has 11 of the top 100 suburbs as far as income, and some of those are richer than Malibu or Beverly Hills income wise. It also has safe suburbs like Oak Lawn and Orland Park where $250,000 buys you a nice newer house in a nice neighborhood. Try that in Boston.
Talent is also plentiful in Chicago and Boston, as well as of course in other tech cities such as Philadelphia and New York. It all comes to intangibles. None of us ( I think ) are Amazon management, specifically Bezos, so it will be interesting to see where he picks and for what reasons. I could just be a longshot like Charlie Bucket in Wonka, and the winner could be a dark horse. You never know.
LOL, this has become a real guessing game. And not just on City Data, but throughout different news outlets nationwide. Pittsburgh's got the inside track, Atlanta's buying up rural property and renaming it Amazon, Philly's 30th street plan is on hold for a tenant, etc. It shows how desperate the USA has gotten economically. I kind of hope Bezo's issues a public statement titled "Just Kidding".
All joking aside, I heard that Bezo's loves the idea of the South, but hates that it's not in the North. So, he's secretly selected rural Delaware for its striking resemblance of the south (high % of rural blacks), so he can enjoy the southern hospitality in the middle of the Northeast Corridor.
Amazon has specifically stated it wants a city with a GOOD transit system. That automatically wipes out Austin, Detroit, Kansas City, Indy, Cincinnati, Columbus, Raleigh, Milwaukee, Nashville, & Memphis.
I don't think Amazon wants a southern city as it's conservative politics and attitudes do not fit in well with the image it is trying to project. That wipes out Atlanta, Houston, Charlotte, and Dallas. I also don't think they want a city in a Pacific or Mountain time-zone which wipes out Phoenix, LA, SF, Sacramento, San Diego, Las Vegas, Portland, Denver, Vancouver,Calgary, and Edmonton.
It also wants a city where these highly skilled workers would want to move to and just as importantly want to stay. These are workers who can get a job anywhere, anytime they want so quality of life is a very big issue........they want the urban centre to have urbanity. They need a city that workers really WANT to move to and not HAVE to move to. This knocks off Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Buffalo, and St.Louis.
NYC has all those things but I don't think Amazon wants NYC. Ottawa doesn't have the tech universities needed but Montreal certainly does and has a fantastic urban life, transit system, and low CoL but I think Amazon knows that getting unilingual English speakers to move to a French city will be a hard sell and Trudeau International is not a very well connected airport. Minny has an outside chance but it is very isolated and might be a problem getting workers.
To my way of thinking we are down to only a few contenders.............Boston, Toronto, Washington, Philly, and Chicago. All of these cities have outstanding universities, good airports, are liberal minded, have good transit systems, and a well educated population.
Washington has a unique problem I that it has almost no developable land in the city itself. Chicago and Philly have very bad reputations for urban violence, urban decay, and poor inner city schools. Conversely Boston, Washington, and Toronto have a higher CoL but there is a reason for that..........they are growing cities because they are cities people really WANT to move to and those that are there WANT to stay.
Last edited by mooguy; 10-04-2017 at 01:35 PM..
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