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True, but that hasn't stopped NY, NJ, and CT from hemorrhaging companies. Illinois is in a classic death spiral.
? Illinois (Chicago area almost entirely) has been gaining a lot of companies and corporate headquarters the past 4-7- years. There are many aspects of the state, financing and smaller cities that are certainly in a death spiral, but from a corporate viewpoint it's certainly not.
According to CBRE over 50 companies have moved their corporate headquarters into downtown Chicago over the past five years, and while many of them were suburban companies, many of them, some huge like ConAgra and Dyson, were out of state. Much of it has to do with the big nationwide trend of companies moving back into the downtown areas of cities, and Chicago would be one of the top areas if you were looking for a solid downtown core.
The state has added over 210,000 professional and business service jobs the past 10 years.
The New HQ will almost certainly be in the Eastern or Central time zones. I think politics takes the NC cities (Charlotte and the Triangle) off the table.
My short list is:
Austin- already a tech hub. Easy to attract talent.
Pittsburgh- budding tech hub. CMU. The city will bend over backwards. Rust Belt redemption story.
Chicago- it's Chicago
Boston- Universities. tech hub.
Northern Virginia- Tech hub. DC infrastructure. Close to WaPo.
Yelp is creating their East Coast center in DC and Nestle is relocating to Arlington. I think DC has a good chance especially with any policy pushes Amazon is wanting. Plus Bezos has a house in Kalorama.
Dallas or Atlanta. Aren't those the largest logistics hubs in the country?
I don't think being the largest logistics hub will matter for them. They already have shipping centers/warehouses all over the country that serve it's region. This is for their headquarters and they wouldn't be shipping anything out from there.
I would scratch San Fran off. Land is expensive (not that that matters I guess) but they already have a west coast presence. Best guess is Texas, Atlanta, maybe Chicago?
My guesses, based on low cost of land/rent, access to high tech employees, bigger city but growing, and a newer geographic area that is non-west, are below--
1) Atlanta
Pros-Logical geographically, low cost, booming, world's busiest airport, access to millenial "techie" types, with Georgia Tech right there as well.
Cons-not many. Quite possibly "too big" of a city? If Amazon wants a smaller, growing, dynamic city in order to be the "big fish in the pond," could pass Atlanta up.
2) Austin
Pros-Booming city, incredible tech scene. Lives/breathes digital/tech. Would be "trendy/hot" location to head to.
Cons-Could be too far removed from the southeast/northeast, but that could be minimal in terms of decision-making.
3) New York City
Pros-THE US city to be in, in terms of an HQ. Access to anything and everything--huge impact.
Cons-Cost, cost, cost. Rent way high, and a small fish in a gigantic pond.
4) Chicago
Pros-Great geographic location-super central. Access to all techies, major massive airport, lower cost than NY/Boston/San Fran areas.
Cons-May be overlooked due to "hotter tech cities" like NY, Atlanta, Austin.
5) Charlotte or Raleigh-Durham
Pros-Techie access, growing cities, superb location, low cost
Cons-May want larger city with in-place infrastructure
6) Nashville
Pros-Seems to be the "red hot IN" city in the US right at this moment. Everyone either wants to move here, vacation here or see what all the buzz is about. A booming city and Amazon would be THE major company in a highly-visible town.
Cons-May not be a contender and overshadowed by larger more traditional tech cities like Austin, Atlanta, NYC.
7) Miami, Denver, Boston
All 3 are viable candidates but Denver may be "too west;" Miami could be too south and heavily Latino markets, but this could be an incredible thing as well; Boston could be ideal actually, no cons other than higher costs in terms of rent...
Eager to see what Amazon's "short list" will be.
What do you want to bet just about any city will subsidize Amazon's rent? I'm thinking maybe NYC could absolutely be in play now.
- Good urban setting
- Several universities and a large, educated workforce
- Decent, not great but growing tech scene
- Relatively (very) affordable
- Amazon already opened a large cloud computing center in Montreal recently, and Microsoft and Google have also expanded their presence in the city
- Quebec government ready to get on its knees
- Lunch break poutine
What do you want to bet just about any city will subsidize Amazon's rent? I'm thinking maybe NYC could absolutely be in play now.
That's a terrific point--bet you are right. For such a HUGE win as Amazon coming to your city, that will be in the cards.
The more I think about it, the more I'm betting on either Boston or NY getting it....liberal areas, continuing the philosophies of Bezos, as well as Amazon as a company's "diversity of thought" leadership.
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