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Old 10-04-2017, 03:33 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, CA
47 posts, read 36,821 times
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Unlikely, unless Hurricane Harvey-esque storms become a frequent occurrence.
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Old 10-04-2017, 03:43 PM
 
1,353 posts, read 1,275,570 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by westbymidwest View Post
Unlikely, unless Hurricane Harvey-esque storms become a frequent occurrence.
That and a decline in the energy industry. Energy industry in Houston has been slumping for the last few years.

I am seeing about 5 texas plates a day in the Phoenix area post Harvey. I was thinking they were maybe evacuees on a mini vacation, but now am starting to wonder if they are here to stay.
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Old 10-04-2017, 04:30 PM
 
Location: Killeen, Tx
220 posts, read 123,499 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facts Kill Rhetoric View Post
Only in percentage terms, in raw numbers the gap has actually increased between Houston and Phoenix. Percentage terms is an apples-to-apples comparator, meant to measure actual growth rate relative to size not growth rate relative to places of different sizes.

2010-2016 Growth:

1. Houston: + 9.68%
2. Phoenix: + 11.72%

1. Houston: + 203,218
2. Phoenix: + 169,432

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_population

Houston is nearly 700,000 ahead of Phoenix now and in raw numbers has grown more than Phoenix, so the gap has only widened. No, I don't expect Phoenix-proper to surpass Houston-proper. That's not realistic and Houston's ITJ has more options afforded to it to expand city boundaries at any given time, even though the city hasn't made an annexation since 1996. Not very realistic at all when talking about city-propers.

However, I do think that there is a chance that Maricopa County, AZ will surpass both Harris County, TX and Cook County, IL to become the #2 most populous in the United States. Harris County will remain in place at #3 as it will pass Cook but will be passed by Maricopa.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County..._United_States

Greater Phoenix is essentially only two counties, with Maricopa having over 90% of the population. It is the workhorse of the Greater Phoenix area, so it has a decisive advantage over Harris and Cook there. Harris County is huge and populated and has strong growth itself and likely will remain that way for a long while. The impediment for Harris is that it has to compete with 10 other counties in its metropolitan region, especially Fort Bend, Montgomery, Brazoria, and Galveston, all of which, together, are increasingly capturing more of the regions growth than Harris is. Due to that, I believe that at some point in the next 30 years, maybe, that Maricopa will surpass Harris and Cook, and Harris will surpass Cook.

So while Phoenix-proper is not realistically in contention to surpass Houston-proper, Phoenix's host county, Maricopa, has a 50% chance, I'd say, of surpassing Houston's host county, Harris.
Ok and thanks for breaking down the % and raw number.
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Old 10-04-2017, 04:32 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,633 posts, read 8,331,995 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ajonesaz View Post
That and a decline in the energy industry. Energy industry in Houston has been slumping for the last few years.
The decline of the energy sector is not a factor in any sort of exodus. The energy sector, as it is, is in better shape in 2017 than it was in 2015 or 2016 when oil prices started coming down, not just in Houston but worldwide. That tends to happen when the value of the commodity doubles from 2016 lows and when other segments of the sector begin to expand more.

Houston actually has larger job growth than the entire state of Arizona (nearly 20,000 more jobs than AZ):

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.t03.htm

Also, Harvey isn't really expected to taper Houston's population growth by much, certainly not enough for Phoenix-proper to be in any position to pass it. Perhaps if Houston gets hit by a Katrina type of storm that brings in wind damage, storm surge, and rainfall as a Category 4 or 5, then there would be some exodus temporarily. However, that is not the case. Harvey struck 170 miles southwest of Houston and its damage on Houston was rainfall. Roofs and powerlines weren't being knocked down or torn apart and ocean water wasn't inundating the city given that the hurricane didn't make a direct hit on the city. Houston got rainfall, which was bad but repairable. Harvey is the type of storm that you can move on from, Maria, which leveled Puerto Rico as it made a direct hit and gave the full brunt of its force, is the type of hurricane that sets you back for years to come. Houston doesn't have to worry about that.
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Old 10-04-2017, 04:34 PM
 
Location: Killeen, Tx
220 posts, read 123,499 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
I think they should have a war with each other to see who can annex the most. Phoenix can eventually annex Arizona itself and then all the city pop people will be like: "damn Phoenix is bigger than LA!".
That gave me a chuckle. Thanks for the laugh.
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Old 10-06-2017, 05:13 PM
 
Location: Tempe, AZ
4,552 posts, read 3,647,636 times
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Phoenix is the one of the largest city propers in the US.

Despite this, looking at Phoenix proper is kind of moot because its population is still concentrated despite these large boundaries. Phoenix boundaries encompass entire mountains and parks, a common thing for cities out West that have more public land that can't be used.

Most of the Phoenix metro is in Maricopa County. Maricopa County is the 4th largest county in the US in population (don't forget that every borough of NYC is a county):

1. LA County 9.8 million
2. Cook County 5.1 million
3. Harris County 4.1 million
4. Maricopa County 3.8 million
(2010 census)

Maricopa County is also the 2nd largest county in the US after San Bernardino, at 9,200 square miles. San Bernardino is at 20,000 square miles (honestly why though). Pima County (holds Tucson) is just shy of Maricopa, which makes it #3. Pinal County that separates the 2nd and 3rd largest counties doesn't rank in the top 100.

I mention Maricopa, Pima and Pinal counties because they now share commuting populations. Its why SE Valley is booming so well (in comparison to the West side of town) and in Casa Grande. Would I call them a CSA? Not quite, but they are getting there. Many people are looking into additional options between the two. For example, a commuter rail is in the works. They have widened the Interstate to 3 lanes each way, which isn't enough to handle the current growth. The I-10 runs through Reservation land which means it will be very tough to expand it in the future. And extremely costly to do so, since this Reservation is very unhappy with ADOT.

Maricopa, Pinal and Pima counties share 5.2 million in population (2010 census). One of the mostly rapidly growing regions, the "Sun Corridor" will be one of the most populated megaregions in the US.

With all that being said, will Phoenix surpass Houston? No, because when Phoenix and Tucson become a CSA, Houston will be well connected to Dallas and San Antonio creating the Texas Triangle.
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Old 10-06-2017, 05:36 PM
 
Location: Vineland, NJ
8,483 posts, read 10,472,879 times
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Remember that Cleveland had 8x the population of Phoenix 1950 and had 800,000 more residents. So who is to say Phoenix can't surpass Houston's population in the not too distant future.
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Old 10-06-2017, 05:39 PM
 
Location: Vineland, NJ
8,483 posts, read 10,472,879 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prickly Pear View Post
Phoenix is the one of the largest city propers in the US.
With all that being said, will Phoenix surpass Houston? No, because when Phoenix and Tucson become a CSA, Houston will be well connected to Dallas and San Antonio creating the Texas Triangle.
I strongly doubt those three cities will ever be one single CSA.
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Old 10-06-2017, 05:39 PM
 
Location: Downtown Phoenix, AZ
18,927 posts, read 6,881,632 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prickly Pear View Post
Phoenix is the one of the largest city propers in the US.

Despite this, looking at Phoenix proper is kind of moot because its population is still concentrated despite these large boundaries. Phoenix boundaries encompass entire mountains and parks, a common thing for cities out West that have more public land that can't be used.

Most of the Phoenix metro is in Maricopa County. Maricopa County is the 4th largest county in the US in population (don't forget that every borough of NYC is a county):

1. LA County 9.8 million
2. Cook County 5.1 million
3. Harris County 4.1 million
4. Maricopa County 3.8 million
(2010 census)

Maricopa County is also the 2nd largest county in the US after San Bernardino, at 9,200 square miles. San Bernardino is at 20,000 square miles (honestly why though). Pima County (holds Tucson) is just shy of Maricopa, which makes it #3. Pinal County that separates the 2nd and 3rd largest counties doesn't rank in the top 100.

I mention Maricopa, Pima and Pinal counties because they now share commuting populations. Its why SE Valley is booming so well (in comparison to the West side of town) and in Casa Grande. Would I call them a CSA? Not quite, but they are getting there. Many people are looking into additional options between the two. For example, a commuter rail is in the works. They have widened the Interstate to 3 lanes each way, which isn't enough to handle the current growth. The I-10 runs through Reservation land which means it will be very tough to expand it in the future. And extremely costly to do so, since this Reservation is very unhappy with ADOT.

Maricopa, Pinal and Pima counties share 5.2 million in population (2010 census). One of the mostly rapidly growing regions, the "Sun Corridor" will be one of the most populated megaregions in the US.

With all that being said, will Phoenix surpass Houston? No, because when Phoenix and Tucson become a CSA, Houston will be well connected to Dallas and San Antonio creating the Texas Triangle.
Maricopa County is the Third largest US County by land area, not the second. Coconino County is bigger.

And the almost all of the city of Phoenix's population is in less than half the land area. Almost 900,000 people live in the city limits between McDowell and Bell Rd's, which is only 145sq miles (with Squaw Peak and the Phoenix Mtns factored out).
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Old 10-06-2017, 06:27 PM
 
Location: Tempe, AZ
4,552 posts, read 3,647,636 times
Reputation: 3625
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwillyfromphilly View Post
I strongly doubt those three cities will ever be one single CSA.
It's debatable. As Phoenix is in the Sun Corridor, there is also the Texas Triangle. Texas Triangle is already bigger, and I do believe it will remain that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220 View Post
Maricopa County is the Third largest US County by land area, not the second. Coconino County is bigger.

And the almost all of the city of Phoenix's population is in less than half the land area. Almost 900,000 people live in the city limits between McDowell and Bell Rd's, which is only 145sq miles (with Squaw Peak and the Phoenix Mtns factored out).
Weird how the source I looked at didn't mention Coconino County at all. That puts AZ with 3 out of 4 biggest counties. It's clear AZ history indicates a preference towards less yet bigger jurisdictions, which I think is better, given that it means collaboration with other jurisdictions is significantly easier, and can share overhead, especially in the less populated counties.

Yes Maricopa's population is concentrated, and so is Pima's. Phoenix metro (and yes also Tucson and Casa Grande and everywhere else) still ranks poorly on density. The big counties dilute this density even more so. Maricopa's 3.8 million are exclusively in Phoenix metro (given that Gila Bend is practically nothing). Pinal's population is also more Western in orientation.

Harris County (which I just found out is Houston) is exclusively Houston, not carrying miles and miles of endless desert. If Maricopa's counties were slightly different, including more of Apache Junction and San Tan Valley and forfeiting Gila Bend, our county would be more on par with Harris.

It's hard to say how and when Pinal will develop to really include Tucson in a CSA. At that point Phoenix will be a much bigger player. But it will be halted so long as the I-10 is the only way around.
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