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Old 10-04-2017, 09:56 AM
 
Location: Killeen, Tx
218 posts, read 122,002 times
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The latest population estimates have Phoenix's population at 1,615,017 and Houston at 2,303,000. Phoenix (city) appears to be growing at a faster rate than Houston (city). Do you think Phoenix could become the 4th largest city and bump Houston to 5th? If so when do you think that could happen?
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Old 10-04-2017, 09:58 AM
 
Location: Willowbend/Houston
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When Houston's economy dies completely and Phoenix starts attracting large numbers of international immigrants.
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:15 PM
 
2,790 posts, read 1,633,736 times
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I doubt it. I think Phoenix's growth will start to stall.
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:37 PM
 
Location: Willowbend/Houston
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220 View Post
But back to the main topic. Over half of the city of Phoenix is undeveloped. If the whole city filled out at the density level of the developed part (approx 6,000/sq mile) it could have a population of 3,000,000+
But its not going to so thats moot.
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:40 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
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Not going to happen, barring extreme catastrophe. It's not as if Houston is growing slowly, either. Also, not to rely too heavily on an article from Vice, but they do call attention to the water and sustainability problem of the Southwest with climate change happening (if obviously exaggerated).

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v...climate-change
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Old 10-04-2017, 12:44 PM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland/ Piedmont, CA
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I say probably if current growth rates remain constant but one can never know.
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Old 10-04-2017, 01:12 PM
 
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I think they should have a war with each other to see who can annex the most. Phoenix can eventually annex Arizona itself and then all the city pop people will be like: "damn Phoenix is bigger than LA!".
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Old 10-04-2017, 01:22 PM
 
Location: Downtown Phoenix, AZ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
I think they should have a war with each other to see who can annex the most. Phoenix can eventually annex Arizona itself and then all the city pop people will be like: "damn Phoenix is bigger than LA!".
I think the only additional planned annexation for the City of Phoenix right now is the planned community of Anthem, which is currently unincorporated, by 2020.

Other than that, the city itself abuts Incorporated cities, Indian Reservations and other government land so can't annex anymore.
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Old 10-04-2017, 01:49 PM
 
3,960 posts, read 3,490,733 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220 View Post
I think the only additional planned annexation for the City of Phoenix right now is the planned community of Anthem, which is currently unincorporated, by 2020.

Other than that, the city itself abuts Incorporated cities, Indian Reservations and other government land so can't annex anymore.
Forgive me I was being tongue in cheek . I am familiar with the land restraints surrounding Phoenix, as I also know that more than one quarter of the land area Phoenix encompasses is actually nature presserves that are not develop-able as well.
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Old 10-04-2017, 02:03 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,631 posts, read 8,322,265 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brock2010 View Post
The latest population estimates have Phoenix's population at 1,615,017 and Houston at 2,303,000. Phoenix (city) appears to be growing at a faster rate than Houston (city). Do you think Phoenix could become the 4th largest city and bump Houston to 5th? If so when do you think that could happen?
Only in percentage terms, in raw numbers the gap has actually increased between Houston and Phoenix. Percentage terms is an apples-to-apples comparator, meant to measure actual growth rate relative to size not growth rate relative to places of different sizes.

2010-2016 Growth:

1. Houston: + 9.68%
2. Phoenix: + 11.72%

1. Houston: + 203,218
2. Phoenix: + 169,432

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._by_population

Houston is nearly 700,000 ahead of Phoenix now and in raw numbers has grown more than Phoenix, so the gap has only widened. No, I don't expect Phoenix-proper to surpass Houston-proper. That's not realistic and Houston's ITJ has more options afforded to it to expand city boundaries at any given time, even though the city hasn't made an annexation since 1996. Not very realistic at all when talking about city-propers.

However, I do think that there is a chance that Maricopa County, AZ will surpass both Harris County, TX and Cook County, IL to become the #2 most populous in the United States. Harris County will remain in place at #3 as it will pass Cook but will be passed by Maricopa.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/County..._United_States

Greater Phoenix is essentially only two counties, with Maricopa having over 90% of the population. It is the workhorse of the Greater Phoenix area, so it has a decisive advantage over Harris and Cook there. Harris County is huge and populated and has strong growth itself and likely will remain that way for a long while. The impediment for Harris is that it has to compete with 10 other counties in its metropolitan region, especially Fort Bend, Montgomery, Brazoria, and Galveston, all of which, together, are increasingly capturing more of the regions growth than Harris is. Due to that, I believe that at some point in the next 30 years, maybe, that Maricopa will surpass Harris and Cook, and Harris will surpass Cook.

So while Phoenix-proper is not realistically in contention to surpass Houston-proper, Phoenix's host county, Maricopa, has a 50% chance, I'd say, of surpassing Houston's host county, Harris.
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