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Old 12-07-2017, 02:46 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,631 posts, read 8,315,973 times
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Yes. America will peak sometime around 2060 to 2070 and will begin falling back after that. The deceleration in birthrates and the stagnation of immigration policies will hit some places first, decades before it hits or even shows up for other places that have different dynamics to work with. There is reason to believe that immigration in the United States has started to decline in 2017 as well, Google "international student admissions into American colleges and universities dropping" and you'll see first hand what electing an anti-immigration president has done to stigmatize the United States. This may remain for the duration period of Trump's presidency and we still don't know what ramifications it can have following his presidency, or if this becomes a permanent trend or something.

Some states will start seeing their populations roll back after 2030 itself, this is primarily due to age and loss of fertility replacement level. Rapid aging is methodical, some years have a larger class of elderly citizens than others (due to the actual year people were born) and this will begin to rapidly intensify going forward as the elder generations are numerically larger than most of the youngest generations and due to the decline in household sizes, rapid aging, and decline in fertility rate the younger generations aren't big enough to offset the natural loss of the elder generations. Rent and housing prices (increasing cost of living in general) is expediting this process even further, as people begin to weigh their options with regard to lifestyle as it becomes increasingly more expensive to have children (and especially in the case of having several kids).

http://www.latimes.com/science/scien...htmlstory.html

http://www.newsweek.com/fertility-pr...arriage-727429

Some American states are aging like fossils. It takes a generation or longer to make your state younger and reverse the fertility rate towards further expansion and that only happens when you make it your mission statement to become younger above all else by solely appealing to and attracting more youths to replace your elderly population's totals. That's not impossible but very hard to do, as you can see countries like Spain, Germany, Japan, and South Korea struggling with doing just that. China, for instance, is expected to peak around 2035 and start rolling back in population after that point. 2035, as you can assume, will represent China's zenith, after that point China will never be as large as it was then.

In about 2-3 weeks the 2017 state population estimates will be released, look for those trends there. From the national level, the bureaus that have been tracking population change have found 2017 to be an accelerated condition of what occurred in 2016 and the prior years of this decade.

On the other hand, some states, the ones with solid immigration numbers and a geographical advantage, as well as suitable fertility rates and an age well below the national median will likely continue on their expansion route throughout this century and possibly even past 2100.

Any state where the numbers of deaths in the most recent year is more than the years prior to it (or more than it ever has been in its history) while also seeing less births than prior years or much less than at any point in its previous history is in for some serious issues well before midcentury.

On the contrary, states that are seeing their number of births numerically increase year over year and operating at their highest ever or close to highest ever, while seeing their death rates increase less meaningfully than birth rates is in good position going forward.

Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 12-07-2017 at 03:24 PM..
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Old 12-07-2017, 03:22 PM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
17,219 posts, read 19,521,254 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facts Kill Rhetoric View Post
There is reason to believe that immigration in the United States has started to decline in 2017 as well, Google "international student admissions into American colleges and universities dropping" and you'll see first hand what electing an anti-immigration president has done to stigmatize the United States. This may remain for the duration period of Trump's presidency and we still don't know what ramifications it can have following his presidency, or if this becomes a permanent trend or something.
Even if there is a temporary slowdown in immigration, I doubt it will last. The U.S. will continue to have steady economic growth for decades into the future.

As long as that lasts, immigrants will continue to want to come to the U.S. and their presence will be an asset to the nation. This has been the case for most of America's history. But 50 years from now, who knows? Things might change.
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Old 12-08-2017, 11:20 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,330 posts, read 10,295,525 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gantz View Post
LOL you just made that up? Tiny UK alone gets around half a million legal immigrants per year...

No they don't. The US lets in 1M permanent residents (green cards leading to citizenship) every year. Only Canada, NZ, and Australia have similar type immigration. The rest of Europe, etc allows in immigrants on a temporary basis and does not offer automatic citizenship after 5 years like we do. Some countries keep immigrants temporary for 8 years.

You have to compare apples to apples and not include things like H1B, etc. Purely on green card issuance, the US lets in more than the world combined. And a million per year is way too much.
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Old 12-08-2017, 11:23 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,330 posts, read 10,295,525 times
Reputation: 5389
Quote:
Originally Posted by Facts Kill Rhetoric View Post
Yes. America will peak sometime around 2060 to 2070 and will begin falling back after that. The deceleration in birthrates and the stagnation of immigration policies will hit some places first, decades before it hits or even shows up for other places that have different dynamics to work with. There is reason to believe that immigration in the United States has started to decline in 2017 as well, Google "international student admissions into American colleges and universities dropping" and you'll see first hand what electing an anti-immigration president has done to stigmatize the United States. This may remain for the duration period of Trump's presidency and we still don't know what ramifications it can have following his presidency, or if this becomes a permanent trend or something.

Some states will start seeing their populations roll back after 2030 itself, this is primarily due to age and loss of fertility replacement level. Rapid aging is methodical, some years have a larger class of elderly citizens than others (due to the actual year people were born) and this will begin to rapidly intensify going forward as the elder generations are numerically larger than most of the youngest generations and due to the decline in household sizes, rapid aging, and decline in fertility rate the younger generations aren't big enough to offset the natural loss of the elder generations. Rent and housing prices (increasing cost of living in general) is expediting this process even further, as people begin to weigh their options with regard to lifestyle as it becomes increasingly more expensive to have children (and especially in the case of having several kids).

Americans keep having fewer babies as U.S. birthrates hit some record lows - LA Times

U.S. Birth Rates Are Dropping As People Delay Marriage and Sperm Quality Declines

Some American states are aging like fossils. It takes a generation or longer to make your state younger and reverse the fertility rate towards further expansion and that only happens when you make it your mission statement to become younger above all else by solely appealing to and attracting more youths to replace your elderly population's totals. That's not impossible but very hard to do, as you can see countries like Spain, Germany, Japan, and South Korea struggling with doing just that. China, for instance, is expected to peak around 2035 and start rolling back in population after that point. 2035, as you can assume, will represent China's zenith, after that point China will never be as large as it was then.

In about 2-3 weeks the 2017 state population estimates will be released, look for those trends there. From the national level, the bureaus that have been tracking population change have found 2017 to be an accelerated condition of what occurred in 2016 and the prior years of this decade.

On the other hand, some states, the ones with solid immigration numbers and a geographical advantage, as well as suitable fertility rates and an age well below the national median will likely continue on their expansion route throughout this century and possibly even past 2100.

Any state where the numbers of deaths in the most recent year is more than the years prior to it (or more than it ever has been in its history) while also seeing less births than prior years or much less than at any point in its previous history is in for some serious issues well before midcentury.

On the contrary, states that are seeing their number of births numerically increase year over year and operating at their highest ever or close to highest ever, while seeing their death rates increase less meaningfully than birth rates is in good position going forward.
You call that facts over rhetoric lol. As if anyone knows what is going to happen with birth rates, immigration, death rates, etc in the years leading up to 2060. We deal with the here and now, and the US is accepting too many foreigners per year. $1M is too many and needs to be pared way back.
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Old 12-08-2017, 09:49 PM
 
10,552 posts, read 13,107,085 times
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Yes, of course it will at some point.
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Old 12-09-2017, 12:16 AM
 
4,478 posts, read 2,659,202 times
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We're going to rely more and more on immigrants. We already rely on immigrants for a large percentage of our jobs in STEM fields (not enough Americans get degrees in these fields, even if the lowest grads are counted). In the future it'll be about the imbalance between workers and dependents, which can be solved relatively easily by immigration.
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Old 12-09-2017, 01:06 AM
 
8,018 posts, read 6,596,070 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
You call that facts over rhetoric lol. As if anyone knows what is going to happen with birth rates, immigration, death rates, etc in the years leading up to 2060. We deal with the here and now, and the US is accepting too many foreigners per year. $1M is too many and needs to be pared way back.
He lives up to his username actually.
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Old 12-09-2017, 05:02 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,631 posts, read 8,315,973 times
Reputation: 7587
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
You call that facts over rhetoric lol. As if anyone knows what is going to happen with birth rates, immigration, death rates, etc in the years leading up to 2060. We deal with the here and now, and the US is accepting too many foreigners per year. $1M is too many and needs to be pared way back.
This is nonsense.

Here's the United States' natural increase profile from 1982 to 2016. Notice how births peaked in 2007 at over 4.3 million and have started scaling back since then (thanks to the fertility rate dropping and rapid aging). Notice how the number of deaths is gradually and incrementally increasing almost each passing year. The total natural increase (births minus deaths) is shrinking/will be shrinking with each passing decennial period in America.

American Births by Year:
1982: 3,652,774
1983: 3,657,037
1984: 3,650,759
1985: 3,711,385
1986: 3,755,370
1987: 3,779,973
1988: 3,856,303
1989: 3,970,649
1990: 3,026,218
1991: 4,133,265
1992: 4,105,689
1993: 4,027,125
1994: 3,971,136
1995: 3,926,652
1996: 3,881,967
1997: 3,892,431
1998: 3,905,544
1999: 3,938,472
2000: -
2001: 4,047,314
2002: 4,006,985
2003: 4,052,799
2004: 4,112,637
2005: 4,121,160
2006: 4,178,113
2007: 4,304,907
2008: 4,282,972
2009: 4,262,897
2010: -
2011: 3,973,485
2012: 3,936,976
2013: 3,940,576
2014: 3,963,195
2015: 3,983,082
2016: 3,977,745

American Deaths by Year:
1982: 1,972,703
1983: 1,993,225
1984: 2,023,847
1985: 2,056,975
1986: 2,090,370
1987: 2,108,937
1988: 2,140,834
1989: 2,152,054
1990: 1,605,349
1991: 2,138,906
1992: 2,180,115
1993: 2,226,027
1994: 2,282,854
1995: 2,284,363
1996: 2,317,918
1997: 2,321,933
1998: 2,319,799
1999: 2,344,573
2000: -
2001: 2,419,276
2002: 2,429,999
2003: 2,422,701
2004: 2,449,577
2005: 2,433,274
2006: 2,417,538
2007: 2,425,115
2008: 2,438,757
2009: 2,486,097
2010: -
2011: 2,512,442
2012: 2,501,531
2013: 2,608,019
2014: 2,582,448
2015: 2,686,546
2016: 2,746,013

In 2007 there were over 4.3 million births and over 2.4 million deaths, that led to a Natural Increase of + 1.9 million people from births minus deaths. In 2016, things are different with over 3.9 million births and over 2.6 million deaths, the Natural Increase has fallen to just less than 1.3 million people. Natural Increase will continue to fall further and this will be especially more difficult for some American states that are well below the national rate, as they will have a difficult time growing. Most of those states will decline, some have already started to now and these trends will expedite as births drop further and deaths rise with immigration either staying stagnant or dropping.

When the number of births and the number of deaths reach the point where they completely cancel each other out (when the natural increase numbers become nonexistent), then America will be left to only grow strictly from immigration. That is coming in some decades and 1 million immigrants a year, which is sufficient in the present, will not be enough at that time. There needs to be a hefty increase to maintain a better balance for growth. The last thing America needs is for the immigration numbers to start plummeting. That will harm several American states.

On a micro-scale at the state level, some American states already face these issues presently whereas others are scratch-free from it for now and some of them will remain to be, likely, for the duration of all of our lifetimes. The population growth dynamic is not at all equal for all states, as most states grow due to different circumstances. This process will further accelerate and the trends will be expedited during that time. For a number of American states, they should start planning a future for a shrinking population and increase in the vacancy of abandoned housing because that will be their reality in the not too distant future, as well a looking for new ways to collect taxes and generate revenue while still holding their congressional representation intact, so that way they don't have a dimming outlook in Congress.

In other developed countries, they have already reached that point where Natural Increase is either zero or negative and all their growth comes solely from immigration. There are also countries that have not expanded immigration, therefore their entire national population is in decline because immigration cannot offset the negative Natural Increase. These countries understand that and realize there isn't a way to reverse it, as that would take decades to put into motion, so have come to expect a shrinking population. Therefore their national level planning goes towards containment of structures and housing units, as well as increasing economic production, to try to mitigate the affects of a population drop. America doesn't have to worry about that presently and wont have to worry about it for another 50-60 years, since its one of the more younger developed nations of the world but internally, some of the American states do have to worry about this and for some, they have to worry in the present because the process is starting already for them.
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Old 12-09-2017, 05:55 PM
 
4,478 posts, read 2,659,202 times
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We need immigrants to be a strong country now, and very likely in the future. but some of the trends buried in those numbers are unclear regarding population size.

Deaths include age-related factors. We have relatively fewer people born in the Depression and WWII, but a lot born in the 20s and starting in the late 40s. That is having effects though I certainly don't know how it plays out statistically. Births probably should be higher given the baby boom echo, but it seems many are choosing to delay having kids, in addition to having fewer or none in many cases. I don't know the statistical effects of that either. But we do know that many factors are cyclical. Past numbers can't be projected out even in the short term.

In the longer term, we have only clues about what will happen to lifespans and birth rates. These will both reflect the actions, reactions, and re-reactions we can only guess at. By 2060, who knows, maybe satellite colonies will be a thing, though I suspect that'll be further out.
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Old 12-09-2017, 06:02 PM
 
Location: Northeast states
10,674 posts, read 8,179,948 times
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People are having less babies compare to back then country will grow in population but at slow rate
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