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Old 12-04-2017, 11:11 PM
 
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So the American's are having less babies. Immigration rates have begun to drop, and 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants are having kids at similar rates to white Americans. This seems like a recipe for population decline, this is already happening in Japan and Eastern and Southern Europe. Western and Northern European countries and losing population because they are receiving a large number of migrants right now, once that goes down their population will probably begin to decrease to. It seems people of the "developed" world aren't having as many kids as they use to.
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Old 12-05-2017, 01:53 AM
 
Location: Washington State desert
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It is a provocative question, for sure. I don't pretend to have the definitive answer. I will say that this "decrease" in population has never occurred in the history of the US. I don't see anything in the near-term that would change this.
As long as the US economy expands (even through certain recessions), I believe the possibility of a decreasing population in the U.S. would be slim to none.

Now, if you want to get into particular State populations, that is a different argument. But overall, I don't see any decreased population overall, despite lower immigration numbers.
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Old 12-05-2017, 01:58 AM
 
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decreasing isnt bad, its an aging population that is

medical technology can prolong life so adults dont die as early to cancel put lower birth rate
as technology gets better, even a higher birth rate wont reverse the population getting older
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Old 12-05-2017, 05:27 AM
 
Location: North Dakota
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I don't think it will decrease.
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Old 12-05-2017, 06:19 AM
 
Location: Tucson/Nogales
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Subtract the immigrants, and yes, the population in the U.S. is already decreasing. Native born fertility rate is estimated at 1.7, 2.1 being the ideal replacement rate.

The 1 and 2 child family is sweeping the entire world, even Mexico, India, Iran and much of South America.

What we'd look like, sans immigrants, would be something like Japan, which doesn't accept permanent immigrants, with a chronic shortage of workers, 1.2 applicants per job.
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Old 12-05-2017, 06:50 AM
 
Location: Sweet Home Chicago!
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Quality over Quantity. Robots/Automation will be taking over many jobs anyway so we'll be better prepared.
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Old 12-05-2017, 06:53 AM
 
Location: Georgia
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A Border Wall will help.
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Old 12-05-2017, 07:53 AM
 
Location: Brooklyn, New York
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pnwguy2 View Post
It is a provocative question, for sure. I don't pretend to have the definitive answer. I will say that this "decrease" in population has never occurred in the history of the US. I don't see anything in the near-term that would change this.
As long as the US economy expands (even through certain recessions), I believe the possibility of a decreasing population in the U.S. would be slim to none.
Really? If US restricts immigration, we would be experiencing population decline as is. United States is not at the natural replacement level. When population declines, the tax burden goes up, because there are fewer younger people to support the old.
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Old 12-05-2017, 07:57 AM
 
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Yes, I think it's likely with Trump's anti immigrant policies.

The birth rate is below replacement level.
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Old 12-05-2017, 08:05 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,448 posts, read 11,955,665 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MLSFan View Post
decreasing isnt bad, its an aging population that is

medical technology can prolong life so adults dont die as early to cancel put lower birth rate
as technology gets better, even a higher birth rate wont reverse the population getting older
A decreasing population is bad. Economic growth in developed economies is closely tied to growth in the population/labor force. This is one reason why Japan has been unable to get out of its decades-long economic slump.

Of course, it's possible even in a shrinking economy, the per-capita income of Americans would rise. But it would be bad for the economy as a whole, because most markets would be shrinking rather than growing, causing frenzied competition and disincentivizing investment.
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