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Old 09-18-2018, 01:13 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
11,810 posts, read 18,799,113 times
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As Raleigh and the Triangle grows, the typical pattern has been the OMB beating it down statistically. It's almost laughable at this point. When the Triangle was based on one MSA: Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, and it passed a million people a couple of decades ago, it was soon split by the OMB into two MSAs. Raleigh's new MSA alone, and the consistent driver of the growth, has since passed the 1 million mark, and was sitting at 1.335M last year. Now that the CSA was knocking on the door of 2.2M in 2017, the OMB yanks away over 170,000 from the Triangle and reassigns it to Fayetteville. It's like bunny-hop "growth". At the Triangle's typical growth rate, it will take the new, smaller, Triangle CSA 4-5 years to recover to its former 2.2M size. So, not all CSAs are bloated!
Interestingly with these changes, the Triangle's largest county (Wake) is now more than half of the entire CSA population (1.07M+), and it still has 4 counties on its border that are not in its own MSA and 1 fast growing one that's no longer even in its CSA.

Last edited by rnc2mbfl; 09-18-2018 at 02:17 PM..
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:38 PM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
18,633 posts, read 27,052,687 times
Reputation: 9577
Quote:
Originally Posted by the resident09 View Post
Explain to me what the feeling of being in a 6.5 million metro is like? I'd like to understand this exact feeling, did you get a little tingling in your toes??
If you donít think Chicago feels more massive than DC when visiting and especially living in the two cities, I donít know what to tell you. Toes or not. DC feels like the size of Miami, Houston, DFW, Atlanta, and Philadelphia. It does not in any way feel or look as large as Chicago.
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:52 PM
 
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
3,974 posts, read 3,456,237 times
Reputation: 2445
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
If you don’t think Chicago feels more massive than DC when visiting and especially living in the two cities, I don’t know what to tell you. Toes or not. DC feels like the size of Miami, Houston, DFW, Atlanta, and Philadelphia. It does not in any way feel or look as large as Chicago.
That's not what I asked you. Chicago feels and is larger than DC as it should. But by measurement what does 6.5 million people "feel" like? I want to know of a description. FWIW I don't think Chicago "feels" all that much larger than Philly for example. They are both urbanly built and they each radiate out from the center. Chicago is 3.5 million larger than Philadelphia on paper however. Feel is subjective. Heck Barcelona from its core feels a lot larger than a lot of American cities.

Houston just "feels" like massive sprawl, Atlanta does too but It's not dense. DC is a mix of almost every category, but it's metro gets cut off by an immediate neighbor. The sphere of DC alone feels similar to the others you mentioned I suppose.

Last edited by the resident09; 09-18-2018 at 08:01 PM..
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:01 PM
 
Location: SoCal
3,768 posts, read 2,556,427 times
Reputation: 2982
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
I'm laughing at Key West and Vero Beach being in the same CSA. That's hilarious.
It's not really that crazy Monroe County is right next to Miami-Dade they even share the same area code. Key West just so happens to be an extension of Monroe County so it got swept in too.

Eastern Polk County is growing more towards Orlando than West Polk towards Tampa so it makes sense that Orlando absorbed the whole county. The Orlando media market has covered all of Polk County for years.

I would not say Stockton is the equivalent to the Bay area as Riverside is to LA at all. Stockton is way out there, and Riverside/San Bernardino is continuous with LA much like San Jose to the Bay Area.
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:28 PM
 
Location: South Beach and DT Raleigh
11,810 posts, read 18,799,113 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sean1the1 View Post
It's not really that crazy Monroe County is right next to Miami-Dade they even share the same area code. Key West just so happens to be an extension of Monroe County so it got swept in too.

Eastern Polk County is growing more towards Orlando than West Polk towards Tampa so it makes sense that Orlando absorbed the whole county. The Orlando media market has covered all of Polk County for years.

I would not say Stockton is the equivalent to the Bay area as Riverside is to LA at all. Stockton is way out there, and Riverside/San Bernardino is continuous with LA much like San Jose to the Bay Area.
The upper Keys, especially Key Largo sit on MiamiDade's doorstep. As a single county, the Keys and the wetlands on the southwest tip of the peninsula only have ~80,000 people and a lot of those live in the upper Keys. I suppose that enough of them are commuting into MiamiDade for inclusion?
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:45 PM
 
Location: SoCal
3,768 posts, read 2,556,427 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
The upper Keys, especially Key Largo sit on MiamiDade's doorstep. As a single county, the Keys and the wetlands on the southwest tip of the peninsula only have ~80,000 people and a lot of those live in the upper Keys. I suppose that enough of them are commuting into MiamiDade for inclusion?
Oh no I totally agree, and understand this, I just don't agree when folks cherry pick extremities to prove their points. It totally makes sense for Monroe to be in the CSA, it's literally right next door.
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Old 09-18-2018, 11:53 PM
 
Location: Virginia Beach
4,209 posts, read 2,827,100 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the resident09 View Post
Explain to me what the feeling of being in a 6.5 million metro is like? I'd like to understand this exact feeling, did you get a little tingling in your toes??
I think you know the answer to this, when people are in a place, a lot of us naturally lean on experiences to other places we've been. If someone says DC feels more like Atlanta than Chicago, that means DC feels more in Atlanta's size range than Chicago. Why are you so contentious about this?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rnc2mbfl View Post
As Raleigh and the Triangle grows, the typical pattern has been the OMB beating it down statistically. It's almost laughable at this point. When the Triangle was based on one MSA: Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, and it passed a million people a couple of decades ago, it was soon split by the OMB into two MSAs. Raleigh's new MSA alone, and the consistent driver of the growth, has since passed the 1 million mark, and was sitting at 1.335M last year. Now that the CSA was knocking on the door of 2.2M in 2017, the OMB yanks away over 170,000 from the Triangle and reassigns it to Fayetteville. It's like bunny-hop "growth". At the Triangle's typical growth rate, it will take the new, smaller, Triangle CSA 4-5 years to recover to its former 2.2M size. So, not all CSAs are bloated!
Interestingly with these changes, the Triangle's largest county (Wake) is now more than half of the entire CSA population (1.07M+), and it still has 4 counties on its border that are not in its own MSA and 1 fast growing one that's no longer even in its CSA.
Lol stop it. The Triangle isn't bloated?

Harnett County has pretty much always been more of a Fayetteville county. Fayetteville's influence within SE North Carolina is a little bigger than black and white statistics would indicate...

In my experience, Raleigh's influence is only felt in extreme northern Harnett, in Angier and immediate environs. Anywhere south of Lillington is heavily Fayetteville-influenced, and Lillington itself is a 50/50 Raleigh/Fayetteville (influenced and pulled from both sides). Dunn, the main and largest "city" in Harnett, is a Fayetteville town. If I had to guess, I'd say at best, Harnett is 60/40 Fayetteville--there is no way in hell that Harnett County as a whole is more Raleigh-inclined, not even 50/50, and a 60/40 Fayetteville is a generous estimate towards Raleigh. This takes me to my next point...

I'm as much of a stat cruncher and data guy as anyone on here, but the OMB can't measure things outside of a data set, such as a shared communities, political ties, etc. Harnett is bordered by both Wake and Cumberland counties, but shares a much longer border with Cumberland, and deeper social roots with Cumberland. The OMB got this right, albeit by accident of using their flawed and frankly outdated criteria, but they got this right...

If anything, we should be applauding Fayetteville for being recognized for its influence over a large swath of North Carolina. On the ground, when somebody says "Fayetteville" or the "Fayetteville area", the core counties are Cumberland, Hoke, and Robeson, but Robeson isn't counted in Fayetteville's official MSA. But that's 520,000 people, which is a fair estimate of Fayetteville's size and reach. "Outer" Fayetteville, if you will, still has major sway over most of Harnett (as mentioned above), the southeastern reaches of Moore, most of Sampson (Clinton), and most of Scotland (Laurinburg). Fayetteville is "the city" of the Sandhills, with reach extending beyond the region slightly, so if we're fair and give a real life estimate, the true "greater Fayetteville" region is somewhere around ~720,000. That would be about 7% of North Carolinians to which could be attributed the Fayetteville region, which isn't insubstantial...

The OMB just previously erroneously gave Harnett to RDU...

I will say that I am a little surprised at dropping Lee County from CSA Triangle, but to be fair, it's a county that gets pulled in three directions (Triangle, Triad, Fayetteville). I've always believed it was more within The Triangle's sphere than the other two, but maybe not. And I'm not surprised about Granville at all, which is hardly Triangle. It never belonged...

We've been down this road before, CSA Triangle is definitely bloated and there are other counties still included within the OMB metrics that realistically shouldn't be...

Stop trying to fool the posters who aren't familiar enough with The Triangle and Eastern NC who don't know otherwise, and stop acting as if the OMB has it out for Raleigh lol. The criteria for how the OMB presently defines these areas greatly favor Raleigh if anything. Also, virtually everybody realizes that Raleigh and Durham are the same region, but I definitely believe they are separate cores. We've been down this road before. "Raleigh" isn't 2 million people, not in 2018, but Raleigh-Durham is...
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Old 09-19-2018, 06:23 AM
 
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
3,974 posts, read 3,456,237 times
Reputation: 2445
Quote:
Originally Posted by murksiderock View Post
I think you know the answer to this, when people are in a place, a lot of us naturally lean on experiences to other places we've been. If someone says DC feels more like Atlanta than Chicago, that means DC feels more in Atlanta's size range than Chicago. Why are you so contentious about this?
Peep my latest post above, 0 contention at all, it was a true honest question.

Feel is still subjective, again from the core on the ground to me Barcelona "feels" bigger than most American cities with only 4 million. Philly definitely doesn't feel like a 3.5 million gap between it and Chicago to me, I'd argue DC may not either. "Feel" has no definitive boundaries.
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Old 09-19-2018, 06:43 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C. By way of Texas
18,633 posts, read 27,052,687 times
Reputation: 9577
Quote:
Originally Posted by the resident09 View Post
Peep my latest post above, 0 contention at all, it was a true honest question.

Feel is still subjective, again from the core on the ground to me Barcelona "feels" bigger than most American cities with only 4 million. Philly definitely doesn't feel like a 3.5 million gap between it and Chicago to me, I'd argue DC may not either. "Feel" has no definitive boundaries.
Be that as it may. Even while I'm in Houston or Atlanta or Miami, I don't feel DC is much larger if at all than these cities. They all feel and look around the same size even though DC has a higher density than these cities. Besides, by density at the UA metric, DC isn't higher than Miami and isn't much higher than Houston or DFW. Meanwhile, Chicago's population is two times larger than DC using the UA metric and has three million more people in MSA. It's urbanity and density covers a larger area it does for DC. It again feels more massive than DC on the street. Also, yes, Philly does not feel as larger as Chicago to me as well. I put that in bold for a reason. I don't see DC as a city or area of 10 million people. I do see Chicago close to or around that level.
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Old 09-19-2018, 06:55 AM
 
9,381 posts, read 9,536,885 times
Reputation: 5786
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spade View Post
Be that as it may. Even while I'm in Houston or Atlanta or Miami, I don't feel DC is much larger if at all than these cities. They all feel and look around the same size even though DC has a higher density than these cities. Besides, by density at the UA metric, DC isn't higher than Miami and isn't much higher than Houston or DFW. Meanwhile, Chicago's population is two times larger than DC using the UA metric and has three million more people in MSA. It's urbanity and density covers a larger area it does for DC. It again feels more massive than DC on the street. Also, yes, Philly does not feel as larger as Chicago to me as well. I put that in bold for a reason. I don't see DC as a city or area of 10 million people. I do see Chicago close to or around that level.
Itís now worth it heís the same guy who was trying to say DCs urban core was like 3x the size of Bostonís.
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