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Old 10-03-2018, 11:53 AM
 
512 posts, read 376,661 times
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So I'm going to have to largely disagree with people and say that it isn't the Rustbelt, it's the southeast.

Why?

1. The southeast has multiple decent cities to choose from that are growing.

2. The different cities have their own pitch. You could live in Asheville and enjoy the mountains, you could live in ATL if you want big city, you could live in Myrtle Beach if you just like the beach city. I think it makes it as a region a better bargain.

3. Weather & geography - Beaches mountains and warm weather

4. Jobs - The types of jobs that are growing are not the crappy bottom of the barrel work. Tech jobs, and other high paying professions are moving to the area.

5. COL - It would take some time before these cities become prohibitively expensive because they are starting out much cheaper. They have quite the room to grow.

I think the rust belt is at a large weather & geography disadvantage. It will be ok, but I don't see any major comeback.


For most improved state, I think its a tie between Georgia & North Carolina. Both will change politically (NC is already purple) and we will see how they evolve and deal with their racial history. Since that is the major issue that people associate with the south, I think those places will be a bellwether for what happens to the south.

For best metro - I can't tell whether it will be the Research Triangle or Atlanta. Both should be very good places in the future. The Triangle will get less boring with more people (I hear that the place is boring). And Atlanta will focus on QOL issues, like fixing traffic etc. The fact that it is in the running pretty heavily in many people's minds for HQ2 is a good look.
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Old 10-03-2018, 12:42 PM
 
21,185 posts, read 30,343,833 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by citidata18 View Post
What numbers?
Salaries and cost of housing, especially if renting. Other costs such as insurance (home/auto), food and utilities as well.
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Old 10-03-2018, 01:01 PM
 
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People talk like wages in the Sunbelt are slave level, apparently, but they seem to forget that wages in the three largest economies of Texas (sorry San Antonio) has wages on par with or greater than large Midwestern metros based on any data I can find. Any data I can find for COL adjusted income shows Texas major cities, which match the definition of Sunbelt perfectly, shows them still being in line with the Midwest.
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Old 10-03-2018, 01:11 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon (in Transition)
881 posts, read 438,805 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Logicist027 View Post
So here is a question, where would you bet on to improve the most? Which areas of the country? I mean megaregions, states & metropolitan areas for comparison. Let's use by 2048 as the extent of the crystal ball and try to look into the future. You can use all of the basic metrics you would use anywhere else. QOL, downtowns, socially, jobs, COL, environment, politically etc.

Some ways that you could go at this question:

Where would you invest if you could?
Where would you live and expect things to get better?
Where would you tell someone to go if they are in the middle class and trying to get a better life?
Where will societal problems be tackled the most?
I think the Great Lakes region will see the biggest gains of 30 years. Climate change will render the desert west less livable and the southern part of the country more miserable. While the Great Lakes region will also become more humid and miserable in the summer, it will likely be less miserable in 30 years than the Sun Belt currently is. The winters will become more mild too.

The land is very affordable and people will be looking for affordability as costs increase in the West and Sunbelt. Houses in some Rust Belt areas are relics of the past and are CHEAP. With some renovation, we will likely see restoration and gentrification.
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Old 10-03-2018, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Clemson, SC by way of Tyler,TX
4,843 posts, read 2,975,563 times
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With global warming, look north.
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Old 10-03-2018, 05:16 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parhe View Post
People talk like wages in the Sunbelt are slave level, apparently, but they seem to forget that wages in the three largest economies of Texas (sorry San Antonio) has wages on par with or greater than large Midwestern metros based on any data I can find. Any data I can find for COL adjusted income shows Texas major cities, which match the definition of Sunbelt perfectly, shows them still being in line with the Midwest.
Believe it or not, many have an aversion to Texas and there are a good number of other places in the Sunbelt where COL adjusted income lags behind Midwest locales. So yes, while a city like Houston might work on paper...it is after all in Texas.
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Old 10-03-2018, 05:21 PM
 
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[quote=cornsnicker3;53264011
The land is very affordable and people will be looking for affordability as costs increase in the West and Sunbelt. Houses in some Rust Belt areas are relics of the past and are CHEAP. With some renovation, we will likely see restoration and gentrification.[/QUOTE]

Hopefully so, however there is a tremendous love for newer build suburban cookie-cutter homes in the US right now and not sure if ever in our lifetime that'll change. Watch HGTV's HouseHunters....90% of the buyers on the show (especially the men) want turn key and to have zero to little maintenance to get in the way of marathon TV/gaming when not working. It's a pretty sad commentary on the American lifestyle of current, and very much unlike our parents/grandparents way of life.
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Old 10-03-2018, 05:23 PM
 
3,554 posts, read 1,187,224 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle19125 View Post
Salaries and cost of housing, especially if renting. Other costs such as insurance (home/auto), food and utilities as well.
We'll just have to agree to disagree.
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Old 10-03-2018, 05:31 PM
 
21,185 posts, read 30,343,833 times
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Originally Posted by citidata18 View Post
We'll just have to agree to disagree.
"Rent burdens are at their highest in poorer counties. According to the study, the most rent burdened county in America is not an expensive area in New York or the Bay Area. Instead it is Orange County, Florida, which is just west of the coast, and includes destination hotspots like Orlando. Here, a whopping 53 percent of low-income households spent more than half of their income on rent. Indeed, 44 percent of low-income households in the state of Florida spent more than half of their incomes on rent in 2008-2012, making it tied with California as the most rent-burdened state in the nation."

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2017/...gether/537798/
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Old 10-03-2018, 07:54 PM
 
5,857 posts, read 14,043,096 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
Grand Rapids has been attracting young professionals for quite some time. The bulk of it's growth has come in the form of educated young professionals over the past 20 years.

6+ Figure Earning Households in MSAs, 2017 Edition

According to the math done in this thread the amount of households making over 100k/yr has increased 140% since 2010. This far out paces any other city/metro from an exponential standpoint, especially in the Midwest. Outside of the fact that it has a smaller city population than some of the cities you listed due to land constraints, i'm not sure why it would be considered lower tier. It competes well in these types of metrics with virtually every city in the Midwest, and quite a few outside of it.
Looking at this same post, these numbers say a lot:

Percentage of 6+ Figure Households to Total Household Gain from 2010 to 2017
For example, if an MSA gained 10,000 households from 2010 and 2017 but gained 40,000 6+ figure earning households then it would be 400%.

1. St. Louis MSA: +1168.63%
2. Honolulu MSA: +822.82%
3. Richmond, VA MSA: +679.67%
4. Albuquerque MSA: +531.13%
5. Pittsburgh MSA: +527.09%
6. Milwaukee MSA: +452.6%
7. Providence MSA: +427.44%
8. Bridgeport, CT MSA: +426.61%
9. Chicago MSA: +419.9%
10. Buffalo MSA: +359.39%


Of course, no guarantee this trend will continue>
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