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So I'm going to have to largely disagree with people and say that it isn't the Rustbelt, it's the southeast.
Not buying it!
Why?
1. The southeast has multiple decent cities to choose from that are growing. Multiple decent cities in the Rust Belt to choose from too. Some are growing, others still stagnant, but won't be much longer
2. The different cities have their own pitch. You could live in Asheville and enjoy the mountains, you could live in ATL if you want big city, you could live in Myrtle Beach if you just like the beach city. I think it makes it as a region a better bargain. Same with the Rust Belt. Plenty of beaches, mountains, big cities and small towns in and near the Rust Belt.
3. Weather & geography - Beaches mountains and warm weather See above, and most people looking for a solid career or at least a well paying job don't care so much about the weather.
4. Jobs - The types of jobs that are growing are not the crappy bottom of the barrel work. Tech jobs, and other high paying professions are moving to the area. Same with the Rust Belt cities.
5. COL - It would take some time before these cities become prohibitively expensive because they are starting out much cheaper. They have quite the room to grow. Again, same for Rust Belt cities
I think the rust belt is at a large weather & geography disadvantage. It will be ok, but I don't see any major comeback.
For most improved state, I think its a tie between Georgia & North Carolina. Both will change politically (NC is already purple) and we will see how they evolve and deal with their racial history. Since that is the major issue that people associate with the south, I think those places will be a bellwether for what happens to the south. While it is true that the rest of the country associates toxic racial history with the South, they also associate high crime rates, low wages, backward social attitudes and bad schools with it.
For best metro - I can't tell whether it will be the Research Triangle or Atlanta. Both should be very good places in the future. The Triangle will get less boring with more people (I hear that the place is boring). And Atlanta will focus on QOL issues, like fixing traffic etc. The fact that it is in the running pretty heavily in many people's minds for HQ2 is a good look.This is merely speculation. Atlanta's been struggling with traffic and sprawl for many decades, but have yet to put a dent in it. As far as making the Research Triangle less boring by adding population, there is not much correlation between city size and boringness among cities this size (see Wichita, Jacksonville, Naptown, etc.)
Believe it or not, many have an aversion to Texas and there are a good number of other places in the Sunbelt where COL adjusted income lags behind Midwest locales. So yes, while a city like Houston might work on paper...it is after all in Texas.
There are many people who have aversions to Florida, or Georgia, or anything in the Deep South, Nevada, or Arizona. The vast majority of the Sunbelt, from California to South Carolina, has a bad repuation with a notable chunk of the population. The only exceptions are maybe North Carolina and Tennessee and New Mexico, to a lesser extemt. So, if we are excluding Sunbelt states which a good chunk of the nation's population dislikes, then we are left with those, and I believe wages are also good in most major North Carolina cities.
Multiple decent cities in the Rust Belt to choose from too. Some are growing, others still stagnant, but won't be much longer
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Same with the Rust Belt. Plenty of beaches, mountains, big cities and small towns in and near the Rust Belt.
Really? Because people really want to hang out on Lake Erie? No one considers the Great Lakes beaches at the same level as the beaches near Charleston or Myrtle Beach. And they don't have the same mountain cities that people want to venture to like Asheville. What great mountain city is considered in the rust-belt?
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most people looking for a solid career or at least a well paying job don't care so much about the weather.
This is just false. Most people don't like cold weather and it is mentioned over and over again here on this forum and in basic life. When people look for a place to get a job, they also want a good quality of life with it. Weather is an important factor of that. Why else do people retire somewhere in warm weather. People don't retire and move to Cincinnati!
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While it is true that the rest of the country associates toxic racial history with the South, they also associate high crime rates, low wages, backward social attitudes and bad schools with it.
So Detroit isn't known for crime? People don't associate areas of Chicago for crime? Is Illinois going to go bankrupt? What is the rust belt known for? Rusting! Not the greatest
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This is merely speculation. Atlanta's been struggling with traffic and sprawl for many decades, but have yet to put a dent in it. As far as making the Research Triangle less boring by adding population, there is not much correlation between city size and boringness among cities this size (see Wichita, Jacksonville, Naptown, etc.)
Your entire argument about the rust belt growing is based upon speculation. Places like Atlanta are in the running for Amazon HQ2. Atlanta has the highest chances according to many people on this very website and other publications. People are moving into Atlanta, Charlotte, Raleigh & Charleston at high rates. Despite any talk, no area of the rust belt has the rates of growth that are seen in these areas. My position is based upon established trends. Yours is based upon speculation.
I definitely believe the Rust Belt will take off, and sooner, rather than later. Water will be an issue in the west and southwest, and it's plentiful in the Rust Belt. Rust Belt cities are reinventing themselves, and they will come back strong.
Being that the US is an extremely urban and fairly progressive society, I would say that the cities bound to improve the most are the cities with the most room for improvement. Take a San Jose for example, while that city certainly has it's issues, it wouldn't need to do as much as say, Detroit, so Detroit will undoubtedly see more improvemet over the coming decades. As far as the rual areas of the US is concerned, I believe those areas will continue to decline before they get better.
There are many people who have aversions to Florida, or Georgia, or anything in the Deep South, Nevada, or Arizona. The vast majority of the Sunbelt, from California to South Carolina, has a bad repuation with a notable chunk of the population. The only exceptions are maybe North Carolina and Tennessee and New Mexico, to a lesser extemt. So, if we are excluding Sunbelt states which a good chunk of the nation's population dislikes, then we are left with those, and I believe wages are also good in most major North Carolina cities.
Id say New Mexico has a bad reputation for a good portion of the population but maybe i just think that because of experience with people in my Bubble.I love New Mexico myself but i dont think it will improve very much long-term.There's simply not a lot of good jobs there.Thats my two cents.
Id say New Mexico has a bad reputation for a good portion of the population but maybe i just think that because of experience with people in my Bubble.I love New Mexico myself but i dont think it will improve very much long-term.There's simply not a lot of good jobs there.Thats my two cents.
To be honest, the only thoughts that come into my head when I hear New Mexico are vast emptiness yet beautiful landscape and poor performing schools.
The only things that come to mind when I think of New Mexico are Aliens / UFOs, and also Bugs Bunny's infamous line: "I knew I should'a made that left turn at Albuquerque!"
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