U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > General U.S.
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 10-15-2018, 07:04 AM
 
Location: Wonderland
44,699 posts, read 36,132,256 times
Reputation: 63270

Advertisements

Quote:
Originally Posted by gladhands View Post
There has been a marked increase in devastating storms, and it’s going to get worse. Hurricanes are getting stronger and lasting longer.

https://www.theguardian.com/weather/...-getting-worse

Climate change is real. Your post is nonsense.
But...But...there is not an increase in hurricanes or hurricane strength.

Quote:
Existing records of past Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane numbers (1878 to present) in fact do show a pronounced upward trend, which is also correlated with rising SSTs (Vecchi and Knutson 2008). However, the density of reporting ship traffic over the Atlantic was relatively sparse during the early decades of this record, such that if storms from the modern era (post 1965) had hypothetically occurred during those earlier decades, a substantial number of storms would likely not have been directly observed by the ship-based “observing network of opportunity.” We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is not significantly distinguishable from zero . In addition, Landsea et al. (2010) note that the rising trend in Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone. Such short-lived storms were particularly likely to have been overlooked in the earlier parts of the record, as they would have had less opportunity for chance encounters with ship traffic.

If we instead consider Atlantic basin hurricanes, rather than all Atlantic tropical storms, the result is similar: the reported numbers of hurricanes were sufficiently high during the 1860s-1880s that again there is no significant positive trend in numbers beginning from that era (Figure 3, black curve, from CCSP 3.3 (2008)). This is without any adjustment for “missing hurricanes”.

The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s . Hurricane landfalling frequency is much less common than basin-wide occurrence, meaning that the U.S. landfalling hurricane record, while more reliable than the basin-wide record, suffers from degraded signal-to-noise characteristics for assessing trends.
Quote:
Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.)
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-war...nd-hurricanes/
Last Revised: Sept. 20, 2018
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 10-15-2018, 08:11 AM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,135 posts, read 2,840,371 times
Reputation: 1648
Quote:
Originally Posted by gladhands View Post
There has been a marked increase in devastating storms, and it’s going to get worse. Hurricanes are getting stronger and lasting longer.

https://www.theguardian.com/weather/...-getting-worse

Climate change is real. Your post is nonsense.
No there has not been. I never said climate change was not real.


Read an article from an actual meteorological source like the one posted above and not the guardian which posts crap like this.


https://www.theguardian.com/environm...limate-deniers


Are you kidding me? Blaming the people who got hit for the storm?


Now here is a good source of information... statistics with no context like your post are to be taken with a grain of salt.
https://www.wunderground.com/education/webster.asp
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2018, 08:43 AM
 
Location: New Mexico
6,557 posts, read 3,656,219 times
Reputation: 12322
It's a crap shoot. I think that some retirees will reconsider permanently moving to hurricane-prone coastal SE areas. There are other options where one can get their beachfront fix -- snow-birding, vacations, etc. I like the beach but wouldn't live there. I'd rather visit. A town I considered moving to got 30 inches of rain the first two days of Florence and stayed flooded even longer. The intensity of the hurricanes is increasing and it's not just an inconvenience to have major flooding and extended power outages or having to rebuild every few years. Maybe taxes are low but insurance rates will equal things out. If you are in your 60s, do you want the hassle and worry of 'when is the big one coming?' I wouldn't bank on a bailout at that age either. Of course, there are other less volatile beachfront areas outside of the SE states.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2018, 09:56 AM
 
Location: Mid-Atlantic
24,980 posts, read 23,891,412 times
Reputation: 30829
Quote:
Originally Posted by SunGrins View Post
It's a crap shoot. I think that some retirees will reconsider permanently moving to hurricane-prone coastal SE areas. There are other options where one can get their beachfront fix -- snow-birding, vacations, etc. I like the beach but wouldn't live there. I'd rather visit. A town I considered moving to got 30 inches of rain the first two days of Florence and stayed flooded even longer. The intensity of the hurricanes is increasing and it's not just an inconvenience to have major flooding and extended power outages or having to rebuild every few years. Maybe taxes are low but insurance rates will equal things out. If you are in your 60s, do you want the hassle and worry of 'when is the big one coming?' I wouldn't bank on a bailout at that age either. Of course, there are other less volatile beachfront areas outside of the SE states.
I rarely gamble, so I wouldn't buy a nice place at the beach. It would be a small condo or a seriously dated, unimproved cottage for me--something I could afford to lose. I'll third that living an hour or two inland doesn't always mean that you're safe.

My home town, Wilkes-Barre, PA, was mostly destroyed by the torrential rain and flooding caused by hurricane Agnes in 1972. Always cautious, dad had bought a house in the hill section. He remembered the flooding and devastation caused by a hurricane in the 1930s.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2018, 11:03 AM
 
56,562 posts, read 80,847,919 times
Reputation: 12495
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gerania View Post
I rarely gamble, so I wouldn't buy a nice place at the beach. It would be a small condo or a seriously dated, unimproved cottage for me--something I could afford to lose. I'll third that living an hour or two inland doesn't always mean that you're safe.

My home town, Wilkes-Barre, PA, was mostly destroyed by the torrential rain and flooding caused by hurricane Agnes in 1972. Always cautious, dad had bought a house in the hill section. He remembered the flooding and devastation caused by a hurricane in the 1930s.
Speaking of Agnes, another area even further inland that suffered some serious damage: WENY News - The flood of 1972: 45 years later
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2018, 01:01 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
941 posts, read 413,204 times
Reputation: 460
My dad's uncle was really considering moving to Florida for warmer weather and large cheap land, but the increase in hurricane activity made him reconsider his idea of moving. He also had warm states in mind like Texas or Arizona (they don't get hurricanes). He would rather live here in NJ, because he is afraid of missing family.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2018, 07:44 PM
 
494 posts, read 254,041 times
Reputation: 639
The inland cities are pretty safe though. For instance, the last major tornado that came through Atlanta was 10 years ago. For Raleigh it was 2011. They do not happen very often.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2018, 08:37 PM
 
Location: Somewhere in the lower 48.
275 posts, read 235,539 times
Reputation: 1005
Quote:
Originally Posted by potanta View Post
My dad's uncle was really considering moving to Florida for warmer weather and large cheap land, but the increase in hurricane activity made him reconsider his idea of moving. He also had warm states in mind like Texas or Arizona (they don't get hurricanes). He would rather live here in NJ, because he is afraid of missing family.
Huh? Texas most certainly does get hurricanes including a big one just last year, Hurricane Harvey.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-15-2018, 09:31 PM
 
Location: Mid-Atlantic
24,980 posts, read 23,891,412 times
Reputation: 30829
Quote:
Originally Posted by ckhthankgod View Post
Speaking of Agnes, another area even further inland that suffered some serious damage: WENY News - The flood of 1972: 45 years later
It devastated the region--many states.

https://www.richmond.com/weather/pho...390487c2a.html
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-16-2018, 06:29 AM
 
Location: Wonderland
44,699 posts, read 36,132,256 times
Reputation: 63270
Quote:
Originally Posted by potanta View Post
My dad's uncle was really considering moving to Florida for warmer weather and large cheap land, but the increase in hurricane activity made him reconsider his idea of moving. He also had warm states in mind like Texas or Arizona (they don't get hurricanes). He would rather live here in NJ, because he is afraid of missing family.
Texas doesn't get hurricanes? What was Harvey? What was Ike? What was that thing that's demolished Galveston several times?

Come on.


There's been no significant increase in hurricanes by the way. Not according to the research (which I've already posted) by the National Weather Service.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > General U.S.
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top