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But...But...there is not an increase in hurricanes or hurricane strength.
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Existing records of past Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane numbers (1878 to present) in fact do show a pronounced upward trend, which is also correlated with rising SSTs (Vecchi and Knutson 2008). However, the density of reporting ship traffic over the Atlantic was relatively sparse during the early decades of this record, such that if storms from the modern era (post 1965) had hypothetically occurred during those earlier decades, a substantial number of storms would likely not have been directly observed by the ship-based “observing network of opportunity.” We find that, after adjusting for such an estimated number of missing storms, there remains just a small nominally positive upward trend in tropical storm occurrence from 1878-2006. Statistical tests indicate that this trend is not significantly distinguishable from zero . In addition, Landsea et al. (2010) note that the rising trend in Atlantic tropical storm counts is almost entirely due to increases in short-duration (<2 day) storms alone. Such short-lived storms were particularly likely to have been overlooked in the earlier parts of the record, as they would have had less opportunity for chance encounters with ship traffic.
If we instead consider Atlantic basin hurricanes, rather than all Atlantic tropical storms, the result is similar: the reported numbers of hurricanes were sufficiently high during the 1860s-1880s that again there is no significant positive trend in numbers beginning from that era (Figure 3, black curve, from CCSP 3.3 (2008)). This is without any adjustment for “missing hurricanes”.
The evidence for an upward trend is even weaker if we look at U.S. landfalling hurricanes, which even show a slight negative trend beginning from 1900 or from the late 1800s . Hurricane landfalling frequency is much less common than basin-wide occurrence, meaning that the U.S. landfalling hurricane record, while more reliable than the basin-wide record, suffers from degraded signal-to-noise characteristics for assessing trends.
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Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations between SST and Atlantic hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.)
It's a crap shoot. I think that some retirees will reconsider permanently moving to hurricane-prone coastal SE areas. There are other options where one can get their beachfront fix -- snow-birding, vacations, etc. I like the beach but wouldn't live there. I'd rather visit. A town I considered moving to got 30 inches of rain the first two days of Florence and stayed flooded even longer. The intensity of the hurricanes is increasing and it's not just an inconvenience to have major flooding and extended power outages or having to rebuild every few years. Maybe taxes are low but insurance rates will equal things out. If you are in your 60s, do you want the hassle and worry of 'when is the big one coming?' I wouldn't bank on a bailout at that age either. Of course, there are other less volatile beachfront areas outside of the SE states.
It's a crap shoot. I think that some retirees will reconsider permanently moving to hurricane-prone coastal SE areas. There are other options where one can get their beachfront fix -- snow-birding, vacations, etc. I like the beach but wouldn't live there. I'd rather visit. A town I considered moving to got 30 inches of rain the first two days of Florence and stayed flooded even longer. The intensity of the hurricanes is increasing and it's not just an inconvenience to have major flooding and extended power outages or having to rebuild every few years. Maybe taxes are low but insurance rates will equal things out. If you are in your 60s, do you want the hassle and worry of 'when is the big one coming?' I wouldn't bank on a bailout at that age either. Of course, there are other less volatile beachfront areas outside of the SE states.
I rarely gamble, so I wouldn't buy a nice place at the beach. It would be a small condo or a seriously dated, unimproved cottage for me--something I could afford to lose. I'll third that living an hour or two inland doesn't always mean that you're safe.
My home town, Wilkes-Barre, PA, was mostly destroyed by the torrential rain and flooding caused by hurricane Agnes in 1972. Always cautious, dad had bought a house in the hill section. He remembered the flooding and devastation caused by a hurricane in the 1930s.
I rarely gamble, so I wouldn't buy a nice place at the beach. It would be a small condo or a seriously dated, unimproved cottage for me--something I could afford to lose. I'll third that living an hour or two inland doesn't always mean that you're safe.
My home town, Wilkes-Barre, PA, was mostly destroyed by the torrential rain and flooding caused by hurricane Agnes in 1972. Always cautious, dad had bought a house in the hill section. He remembered the flooding and devastation caused by a hurricane in the 1930s.
My dad's uncle was really considering moving to Florida for warmer weather and large cheap land, but the increase in hurricane activity made him reconsider his idea of moving. He also had warm states in mind like Texas or Arizona (they don't get hurricanes). He would rather live here in NJ, because he is afraid of missing family.
The inland cities are pretty safe though. For instance, the last major tornado that came through Atlanta was 10 years ago. For Raleigh it was 2011. They do not happen very often.
My dad's uncle was really considering moving to Florida for warmer weather and large cheap land, but the increase in hurricane activity made him reconsider his idea of moving. He also had warm states in mind like Texas or Arizona (they don't get hurricanes). He would rather live here in NJ, because he is afraid of missing family.
Huh? Texas most certainly does get hurricanes including a big one just last year, Hurricane Harvey.
My dad's uncle was really considering moving to Florida for warmer weather and large cheap land, but the increase in hurricane activity made him reconsider his idea of moving. He also had warm states in mind like Texas or Arizona (they don't get hurricanes). He would rather live here in NJ, because he is afraid of missing family.
Texas doesn't get hurricanes? What was Harvey? What was Ike? What was that thing that's demolished Galveston several times?
Come on.
There's been no significant increase in hurricanes by the way. Not according to the research (which I've already posted) by the National Weather Service.
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