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Old 12-19-2018, 01:19 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles-Houston-DFW
1,689 posts, read 842,846 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
Is it metro Chicago or is it Downstate? We will find out in March
It's definitely the Chicago area. Specifically the city of Chicago and a few less desired suburbs. The Chicago area in general only grows from natural increase. Probably a few from Metro East (St. Louis region), but the other population bases in Illinois aren't large enough to produce the declining numbers the state is seeing. Those people moving out tend to stay in the Central Time Zone.
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:31 PM
 
Location: Mexico City, formerly Columbus, Ohio
13,105 posts, read 13,499,729 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
My guess is both metro Chicago and other parts of Illinois are experiencing decline. Interesting to see that every other state in the Midwest is growing at least a little, including Michigan which was notoriously depressed a decade ago.
Other Great Lakes states are most likely benefitting at least some from the Illinois decline. Illinois did send a net average of 257 people every year to the Columbus metro 2012-2016, for example. However, Alabama, Alaska, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Puerto Rico all sent more than Illinois.
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:41 PM
 
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Also considering the growth in VA and DC vs Maryland the Baltimore MSA might have lost population
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:48 PM
 
4,490 posts, read 2,678,837 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas75 View Post
If the 2018 estimates were used for reapportionment, the following states would gain or lose House seats:

Gains:
Colorado 7 -> 8
Florida 27 -> 29
North Carolina 13 -> 14
Oregon 5 -> 6
Texas 36 -> 38

Losses:
Illinois 18 -> 17
Michigan 14 -> 13
Minnesota 8 -> 7
New York 27 -> 26
Pennsylvania 18 -> 17
Rhode Island 2 -> 1
West Virginia 3 -> 2

This reapportionment outcome would marginally benefit Republicans in the electoral college, as the only solid red state to lose a seat is WV, and the only solid blue state to gain a seat is OR. But it wouldn't make a major difference unless an overall election is very close.
Aside from the gerrymandering effect, two effects should roughly cancel each other out on average: Southern/Western states get more EC votes, but their electorates are influence by the people who moved.
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Old 12-19-2018, 01:56 PM
 
Location: Reno, NV
1,553 posts, read 718,877 times
Reputation: 2008
Quote:
Originally Posted by DabOnEm View Post
It's definitely the Chicago area. Specifically the city of Chicago and a few less desired suburbs. The Chicago area in general only grows from natural increase. Probably a few from Metro East (St. Louis region), but the other population bases in Illinois aren't large enough to produce the declining numbers the state is seeing. Those people moving out tend to stay in the Central Time Zone.
It's not that Chicagoland is declining faster than the rest of the state. The collar counties besides DuPage have all pretty much been growing year over year (even if not much), and Cook's population change over 2010 is still slightly positive. Meanwhile, most downstate counties are regularly shrinking year over year and have -2% to -6% growth since 2010.

It's more that downstate has been shrinking for a long time anyway due to the general urbanization of the US population, and only now is Chicagoland starting to follow it.
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:05 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles-Houston-DFW
1,689 posts, read 842,846 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheTimidBlueBars View Post
It's not that Chicagoland is declining faster than the rest of the state. The collar counties besides DuPage have all pretty much been growing year over year (even if not much), and Cook's population change over 2010 is still slightly positive. Meanwhile, most downstate counties are regularly shrinking year over year and have -2% to -6% growth since 2010.

It's more that downstate has been shrinking for a long time anyway due to the general urbanization of the US population, and only now is Chicagoland starting to follow it.
Yeah looks like it's only been in the last two years that Chicagoland has lost people, but remember that it's been losing people via migration overall longer than that. Natural increase has kept it afloat in the 2000s.

Here's a link that breaks down the metro numbers for Chicago: https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/p...in%2C_IL-IN-WI
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:11 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, New York
3,752 posts, read 3,857,018 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cjoseph View Post
Simple: people have been fleeing NY the past couple of years due to either taxes, weather, or insane COL. And I mean fleeing. Even Long Island and NYC suburbs have ground to a halt. Manhattan is a playground for the 1%, and the rest of the city is following in its footsteps. Consider this: since 2010, NYS has lost 1.2 million to other states.
It also doesn't help that NYC suburbs, like Long Island, essentially banned any new construction from happening. I bet once MSA population figures come out, you will see big declines in NYC suburb counties.

Cuomo is literally running the state into the ground, but it doesn't matter, since he has a (D) next to his name. And as we all know, a vote for a local (D) governor is a vote against Trump!
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:12 PM
 
Location: East Tennessee and Atlanta
3,685 posts, read 8,780,598 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Facts Kill Rhetoric View Post
Take an extra careful look at California and New York on all three lists. California's 2017 numbers were revised downward by -137,000 people. In addition to that, California's + 157,000 from the newly released 2018 numbers is the lowest it has added in a year since the 1940s. The next lowest year for California was 2006 with + 193,259. It does not appear that California will be reaching 40 million by the 2020 census, it is way off course now. The state of New York's 2017 numbers were revised downward by nearly -260,000 people. On a brighter note, Michigan is doing pretty well now.

When the numbers for metropolitan areas come out in March of 2019, there will likely be population decline for the New York MSA, Los Angeles MSA, and Chicago MSA. If they avoid decline, then stagnation of barely any year-over-year growth.
I'm really struck on how sluggish California's growth actually was, as well as the decline with NY state. I think what is happening in California is that the higher taxes, the regulations, and the numerous natural disasters are having folks say "enough is enough."

As for NY state, upstate has been mostly declining for decades, but NYC has been offsetting that and adding people for the past 20 years or so +, allowing NY state to grow overall.
But now, it seems that NYC is starting to slow its growth somewhat, and other cities are increasingly taking a bit of the share of people who would have originally moved to NYC for "NYC only jobs." (like finance, tv/media, creative, etc).
While other markets are seeing these jobs with increasing availability, and having the cost of a 1 bedroom apartment set you back just $14-1600/month, rather than the insane high cost of $3-3500/month.
(think Atlanta, Charlotte, Richmond, Denver, Dallas, Houston, and other sunbelt cities)
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Old 12-19-2018, 02:20 PM
 
2,006 posts, read 1,023,417 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
Is it metro Chicago or is it Downstate? We will find out in March
Chicago is losing a segment of its population to the south....that's been discussed over and over on this forum, so you probably already know that. Moving into Chicago, are professionals...that's easily verifiable, as well.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/arti...thier-educated
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Old 12-19-2018, 03:19 PM
 
10,558 posts, read 13,130,219 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parhe View Post
You livein another world. I'm no fan of Austin boosters, but they are in no way insecure.they 100% truly do think their city ison top of the world.in comparison to both rust belt cities and their peers in Texas.

That said, salaries after adjusting for COL is still high in Austin, and that city, along with Houston and DFW, do just as well as the Midwest and Rust Belt when it comes to income after COL.
I wonder if that is actually true.

Looking at Real Personal Income per capita adjusted for regional price deflators

Austin is $49.8K
Dallas is $47.9K
Houston is $47.2K

vs.

Chicago's $51.0K
Columbus' $48.4K
Cleveland's $52.2K
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