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Old 11-15-2018, 06:17 AM
 
Location: Mishawaka, Indiana
6,511 posts, read 9,047,067 times
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Recently scoured over the Bureau of Economic Analysis website glancing over the current GDP and growth rate of some cities across the United States. I came across a few shockers:


Shrinking to stagnant cities:



Houston went from 507 billion in 2014 to 472 billion in 2016 and up to 490 billion in 2017. Dallas is comfortably pulling away from Houston in GDP. It used to look like Houston might challenge Chicago on a GDP level in the not too distant future, for now it looks like Chicago will stay at number 3 for quite some time.


Peoria Illinois, went from 22 billion in 2012 to 19 billion in 2017, with a steady decrease year after year. I believe John Deere moved a lot of their white collar jobs from the city not too long ago.


Charleston West Virginia went from 13.6 billion in 2012 to 12.3 billion in 2016.




Stagnant Cities:



New Orleans


Memphis


Shreveport






Surprising Growing Cities:


Chicago, for all the negative news you hear about Chicago, and the overall stagnant population growth of the metro area, the metro GDP continues to grow at very healthy levels


Pittsburgh, another city that has near stagnant population growth, but very healthy GDP growth.


Indianapolis, a city that has a GDP much higher than other cities of similar population, and it continues to grow in both population and GDP, despite being in Indiana and the Midwest


Flint Michigan, a city that has a rocky past, at least in terms of GDP it is growing, albeit slowly.


Detroit, seeing continued and stable GDP growth, despite losing residents in the city, and overall flat population change in the metro area.


Elkhart Indiana, home of the RV capital of the world, and the largest producer of RV's in the country. Elkhart which only has about 215,000 people in the metro area has a GDP of 17 billion, the 4th highest in state. The city went from 10 billion in 2012 to 17 billion in 2017.


I'm sure I missed a lot of other cities of particular interest, feel free to add and discuss them as well.


Any one know when the 2018 statistics will come out?
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Old 11-15-2018, 08:34 AM
 
Location: Brew City
4,213 posts, read 2,501,359 times
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Some interesting info. I'm not surprised at all about Chicago. Most of the negative news comes from certain sources and has a certain agenda. Houston is a shocker though.

Would you mind doing Milwaukee?
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Old 11-15-2018, 08:39 AM
 
2,514 posts, read 2,265,374 times
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The only negative news I hear about Chicago has to do with the gun violence on the south side and anything related to economy is always about Illinois as state. I don't ever see anything about Chicago itself suffering any sort of economic decline....
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Old 11-15-2018, 08:49 AM
 
Location: SoCal
3,767 posts, read 2,553,386 times
Reputation: 2978
Quote:
Originally Posted by ColdAilment View Post
Recently scoured over the Bureau of Economic Analysis website glancing over the current GDP and growth rate of some cities across the United States. I came across a few shockers:


Shrinking to stagnant cities:



Houston went from 507 billion in 2014 to 472 billion in 2016 and up to 490 billion in 2017. Dallas is comfortably pulling away from Houston in GDP. It used to look like Houston might challenge Chicago on a GDP level in the not too distant future, for now it looks like Chicago will stay at number 3 for quite some time.


Peoria Illinois, went from 22 billion in 2012 to 19 billion in 2017, with a steady decrease year after year. I believe John Deere moved a lot of their white collar jobs from the city not too long ago.


Charleston West Virginia went from 13.6 billion in 2012 to 12.3 billion in 2016.




Stagnant Cities:



New Orleans


Memphis


Shreveport






Surprising Growing Cities:


Chicago, for all the negative news you hear about Chicago, and the overall stagnant population growth of the metro area, the metro GDP continues to grow at very healthy levels


Pittsburgh, another city that has near stagnant population growth, but very healthy GDP growth.


Indianapolis, a city that has a GDP much higher than other cities of similar population, and it continues to grow in both population and GDP, despite being in Indiana and the Midwest


Flint Michigan, a city that has a rocky past, at least in terms of GDP it is growing, albeit slowly.


Detroit, seeing continued and stable GDP growth, despite losing residents in the city, and overall flat population change in the metro area.


Elkhart Indiana, home of the RV capital of the world, and the largest producer of RV's in the country. Elkhart which only has about 215,000 people in the metro area has a GDP of 17 billion, the 4th highest in state. The city went from 10 billion in 2012 to 17 billion in 2017.


I'm sure I missed a lot of other cities of particular interest, feel free to add and discuss them as well.


Any one know when the 2018 statistics will come out?
Gas prices have been slipping again so it wouldn't surprise me if "some" of these cities are hit once more.
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Old 11-15-2018, 09:14 AM
 
Location: Maryland
4,267 posts, read 5,473,848 times
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Peoria isn't surprising: Chicago poached the Caterpillar HQ (the major employer there), and whenever the company cuts jobs, it almost always jettisons some employees from the Peoria location. Wasn't long ago that Cat indicated it was going to have a major expansion at its Peoria HQ only to see the company renege and up and move. Shame to see, too, as Peoria's location is beautiful and it has so much potential.
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Old 11-15-2018, 10:10 AM
 
Location: Mishawaka, Indiana
6,511 posts, read 9,047,067 times
Reputation: 5008
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vegabern View Post
Some interesting info. I'm not surprised at all about Chicago. Most of the negative news comes from certain sources and has a certain agenda. Houston is a shocker though.

Would you mind doing Milwaukee?

Milwaukee seems to be having steady and sustained growth from 2012 to 2015. From 2015 to 2017 the city seems to have leveled off and stagnated some. $90 billion in 2012 to $100 billion in 2015, and still $100 billion in 2017. I'm sure you know, but Milwaukee's metro GDP is complicated due to its proximity to Chicago, Racine County is part of the metro area, but Kenosha County is not. I know Kenosha County kind of goes both ways.


I probably should have provided this, but here is a link to all of the information I am viewing.



https://www.bea.gov/system/files/201..._metro0917.pdf
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Old 11-15-2018, 10:13 AM
 
Location: Mishawaka, Indiana
6,511 posts, read 9,047,067 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sean1the1 View Post
Gas prices have been slipping again so it wouldn't surprise me if "some" of these cities are hit once more.

I'm waiting for that too, especially Elkhart. I live near there, and remember very distinctly them having an unemployment rate of 20% back in 2008, the GDP was probably around $7 billion or so back then. As soon as we have another recession people are going to stop buying RV's, and there will be mass layoffs. The companies have grown so much in the last 3-4 years I think the next recession will have some particularly painful layoffs for their economy.



Still surprised about Houston though. Hurricane Harvey hit Houston last year, but last year Houston seems to have regained some of its footing. Not really sure what's happening there.
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Old 11-15-2018, 10:31 AM
 
Location: SoCal
3,767 posts, read 2,553,386 times
Reputation: 2978
Quote:
Originally Posted by ColdAilment View Post
I'm waiting for that too, especially Elkhart. I live near there, and remember very distinctly them having an unemployment rate of 20% back in 2008, the GDP was probably around $7 billion or so back then. As soon as we have another recession people are going to stop buying RV's, and there will be mass layoffs. The companies have grown so much in the last 3-4 years I think the next recession will have some particularly painful layoffs for their economy.



Still surprised about Houston though. Hurricane Harvey hit Houston last year, but last year Houston seems to have regained some of its footing. Not really sure what's happening there.
My point exactly, I was baffled that it dropped so severely as well I posted about a few months ago I think it went from #4 to #7 in 3 years. Gas prices dropped 16% in October alone. So some cities may go the way of North Dakota.

Houston was the one large city during the recession that was booming, but when the rest of the nation started booming Houston started slipping the irony.
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Old 11-15-2018, 11:00 AM
 
3,559 posts, read 1,187,224 times
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Houston's an easy one to explain.

As oil is their primary econonic engine, the collapse in prices back in 2014-2015 impacted their economy especially hard.

Now that oil prices have rebounded some, so has Houston's economy.
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Old 11-15-2018, 09:59 PM
 
Location: Virginia Beach
4,209 posts, read 2,823,898 times
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The '18 results will be out in December 2019...

I think it's important to recognize that Dallas by itself isn't carrying that weight over Houston. I'm in a rare minority reviewing it this way, though. Fort Worth metro division typically accounts for about 25% of metro DFW economic growth; Fort Worth by itself can hold it's own with many cities in its weight class. So the Dallas MD GDP for 2017 would be in the $400 billion range...

Granted, any way one looks at it, metro Dallas is economically outpacing Houston by a comfortable margin, so I'm on board with that. I prefer Dallas to Houston and I do not think it's out of the question that Dallas passes Houston in prominence in the next 10-12 years. Dallas MD (the true size of Dallas, to me) is ~28% smaller than Houston, but Dallas gdp is only ~18-19% behind Houston currently. Dallas is coming...

I break down the gdp outlook over a 5-year trend (2012-2017) like this:

0-9.99% growth (slow/low growth)
10-19.99% growth (medium/moderate/steady growth)
20-29.99% growth (high growth)
30%+ growth (boomtown)

Houston has only had 6.01% gdp growth in the last five years. Other notable cities with low growth rates economically:

Bridgeport (+8.64%)
Hartford (+9.09%)
New Orleans (+2.42%)
Tulsa (+0.48%)
Rochester (+9.09%)
Baton Rouge (+6.42%)
Tucson (+6.3%)
Little Rock (+9.8%)
Bakersfield (+1.23%)
El Paso (+9.65%)
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