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Old 09-12-2019, 11:19 AM
 
3,038 posts, read 1,280,097 times
Reputation: 3031

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TLDR;

1. Immigration has declined 30% in the last five years, and no longer counteracts domestic outflow as it has for the past couple of decades.

2. Home prices.

3. Accelerating outflow of African Americans to the South.
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Old 09-12-2019, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Greensboro, NC
794 posts, read 315,091 times
Reputation: 1946
Insane housing prices and commutes.
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Old 09-12-2019, 12:45 PM
 
Location: New Orleans
43 posts, read 10,661 times
Reputation: 45
Idk if I'd say those cities are really shrinking- like for Chicago- the suburbs/metro area has been increasing (but only on a moderate scale). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_metropolitan_area
I'm unsure about the other two but I think all three could be for different reasons but I'll give a broad whirl of an attempt.
1) Prices and market. It could be perhaps these areas are too expensive to support a substantial middle class who are moving out to other areas. And that salary of middle class folks isn't increasing nor is it enough to support living near enough to their areas of work.
2) Other cities are booming? Places that have huge tech surges, or other big economic boomers, are stealing folks. Like the Bay area for tech scene.
3) Maybe just weather and attached to pricing? The sunbelt has really just been exploding- good prices, good amenities, decent opportunities, good bang for your buck, etc. Places like Atlanta, Phoenix, big cities in Texas, and others.
4) Maybe immigration, but honestly not sure.
5) I do think (and it is related to the previous points) that with the increases in technology that more places are getting more and more amenities. It is getting harder to tell the difference between cities, folks can find Chipolte or H&M in most cities throughout the US.
This is just random guesses and I could be way off the mark. So take it for what it is worth- some random bloke's scattered thoughts on it.
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Old 09-12-2019, 01:21 PM
Status: "Coffee is at least 3 of my food groups" (set 8 days ago)
 
Location: Chi > DC > Reno > SEA
1,952 posts, read 907,920 times
Reputation: 2540
Most of the time when I hear about someone leaving the Chicago area, it's because of the rapidly growing property tax burden. These taxes are, largely, a way of funding the state's pension liabilities dating back to the '70s and '80s, but they're getting higher because more people are moving out and thus not paying Illinois taxes anymore, so the remaining residents have to foot the bill.

The overall cost of living is still lower than in comparable large metros like Boston, the Bay Area, and Seattle, but those places don't have the massive working- and middle-class populations that Chicagoland does. In essence, Chicagoland's demographic makeup is being "corrected" to match its cost of living.
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Old 09-12-2019, 01:40 PM
 
Location: East Tennessee and Atlanta
4,292 posts, read 9,059,404 times
Reputation: 3047
With so many mid to larger cities, outside of these big 3, having gentrified and attracted amenities that these 3 cities mostly have, a lot of people are not seeing the value of remaining in these cities as a resident any longer.

Many companies allow a remote work option too, and there are many higher paying opportunities in cities outside of LA, Chicago and NYC (and San Fran...) that warrant a move.

For example, why pay $3200/month for a small-ish 1 bedroom apartment in NYC, when you can move to Atlanta, and rent a nice 1 bedroom for $15-1600/month? In Atlanta you would have better weather, own a car, not have to deal with the daily crowds and stench, subway BS, and constant high taxes.

The value of living in these cities -- unless you absolutely have to for a job or family -- is a lot lower than it used to be. You can hop on a cheap flight to these cities 3 times a year and get your "fix" and go back home.
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Old 09-12-2019, 03:23 PM
 
1,796 posts, read 1,459,739 times
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I don't think this is anything to worry too much about. Large and expensive cities tend to be super transient, they've always been - people come and go, some stay long term and have families, etc. Some leave after climbing the corporate ladder for cheaper cities, it's always been that way.
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Old 09-12-2019, 03:38 PM
 
Location: Dallas, TX and wherever planes fly
1,611 posts, read 2,462,349 times
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Smaller cities are now offering some of the same amenities that were previously reserved only for the big big cities. cities like Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Denver, and about two dozen others offer many of the same amenities and diverse walks of life and fast pace at a fraction of the cost.
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Old 09-12-2019, 07:28 PM
 
Location: Denver
3,346 posts, read 2,767,532 times
Reputation: 2438
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjbradleynyc View Post
With so many mid to larger cities, outside of these big 3, having gentrified and attracted amenities that these 3 cities mostly have, a lot of people are not seeing the value of remaining in these cities as a resident any longer.
This^^

Essentially small and mid sized are making good progress adding the amenities that used to be reserved only for large cities while large cities have distinctively failed at reducing congestion problems to be able to compete with smaller cities.

Think about how well the top three have done at reducing pollution and improving air quality, reducing commute times, adding park / greenspace / natural amenities, keeping COL in line with income growth to level advantages that smaller metros have? Also, how well have they been maintaining the infrastructure they built which allowed them to grow so large? On the flip side, look how well small metros have been able to add flights to their airports, have a vast array of restaurant types, have shopping variety (thanks Amazon big time here), add new events and venues to the things to do list...

Technological innovation has made much more progress in proliferating amenities than it has been at solving the congestion problems that evolve from people congregating in a critical mass large enough to have numerous amenities.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Taynxtlvl View Post
Smaller cities are now offering some of the same amenities that were previously reserved only for the big big cities. cities like Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Denver, and about two dozen others offer many of the same amenities and diverse walks of life and fast pace at a fraction of the cost.


The big 3 are noticeable now, but in the next 20 years this trend continue on to the other larger metros, especially given the demographic trend of a larger and larger portion of the population not needing to factor work into their choice of where to live. The same problems shackling LA and NY are hitting places like Dallas and Denver and people are going to increasingly ditch them for even smaller metros like Ft. Collins or Grand Junction or Fayetteville AR.

The drop in immigration is another key factor as others have stated.
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Old 09-12-2019, 09:17 PM
 
Location: Chiraq, Crook County
1,703 posts, read 1,014,812 times
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Cost, but I also think the trend as of recent years has been to move to mid size, smaller cities over the jam-packed, congested cities like the "Big 3". I contribute a lot of this reason to the boom in tech, and that tech is a field that can be spread to just about any city in the world.

But yeah, COL is easily the major reason. Driven up cost is forcing the poor and middle class out in favor of the upper class. Similarly, business startups are also starting to flee major cities like San Fran and NYC in favor of mid-size cities like Raleigh or Lincoln.

Also, this is a pretty big country. There's a lot of variety and there's no reason you need to stay in NYC, Chicago, LA just because you were born there.
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Old 09-12-2019, 09:27 PM
 
Location: Chiraq, Crook County
1,703 posts, read 1,014,812 times
Reputation: 1437
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taynxtlvl View Post
Smaller cities are now offering some of the same amenities that were previously reserved only for the big big cities. cities like Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, Denver, and about two dozen others offer many of the same amenities and diverse walks of life and fast pace at a fraction of the cost.
I agree with this but I don't know if I'd say Denver and Houston are "a fraction" of the cost of the "big three" cities, at least not anymore. Both of those cities have grown exponentially in cost along with population, and if they keep growing the same will be even more true. A better example would be a Madison, WI or un-recognized boom city like Jacksonville, Albuquerque or Omaha.
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