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Old 09-14-2019, 07:41 AM
 
Location: Somewhere extremely awesome
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Probably a big factor is declining birthrates.

My guess is that population growth is de-accelerating across the board, but places where people moving in aren't having kids (or are moving out eventually if they do) are going to be among the first affected by population declines. Keep in mind that eight states lost population, and there really isn't a geographic distribution between them (Alaska, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, West Virginia, and Wyoming.)
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Old 09-14-2019, 07:43 AM
 
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They are shrinking because they have become too crowded. Is better if they get smaller. Quality of life will increase, and other places with low quality of life will see increase as more income moves in.

Is better for all.
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Old 09-14-2019, 10:43 AM
 
Location: Boston Metrowest (via the Philly area)
4,583 posts, read 7,677,868 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by march2 View Post
Those metros are not shrinking. Their rates of increase are shrinking, but they are not losing population.
According the total population estimates, there are slight declines for all three metro areas in question according to the Census Bureau's latest one-year survey. It's not just in reference to migration patterns, although clearly that's driving it. You can see a good graphic representation of it here:

New York, Los Angeles and Chicago Metro Areas All Lose Population | Newgeography.com

Obviously one year does not make a long-term trend, and yes, it's still an estimate (although I think some calling the term "estimate" into question wouldn't be so quick so do so if the numbers were favorable; there's some inconsistency to this conversation). But the fact of the matter is that the Census IS picking up on a multi-year trend of downward growth that's now just entered negative territory for the metros of NYC, Los Angeles, and Chicago.

The extent to which this portends confirmed population loss (via in-person count, although real population loss could be masked by a simple comparison between 2010 and 2020 numbers and wouldn't necessarily pick up on a more recent phenomenon) or longer-term population loss is of course unknown at this point. But it's still a legitimate data point that does, indeed, have other telling Census data points behind it in terms of telling a "story."
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Old 09-14-2019, 12:40 PM
 
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A lot has to do with looing their African-American population. Cost, taxes and higher crime in their neighborhoods. Nothing new here especially for Chicago. Drastically down its African population and in this Trump era .... less influx of Latinos. Reasons illegal are not counted too.

Some cities maintain their African-Americans much better as Philly. Stated a modest gain. The Middle-Class squeeze more and more too and more aging cities with higher %s of retiring folk leaving and passing-on can hurt Northern cities too. Certainly not LA though..... but even retiring folk there seek cheaper areas also. Bot weather related Bu having real winters of course.
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Old 09-14-2019, 01:24 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles-Houston-DFW
1,841 posts, read 938,058 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DavePa View Post
A lot has to do with looing their African-American population. Cost, taxes and higher crime in their neighborhoods. Nothing new here especially for Chicago. Drastically down its African population and in this Trump era .... less influx of Latinos. Reasons illegal are not counted too.

Some cities maintain their African-Americans much better as Philly. Stated a modest gain. The Middle-Class squeeze more and more too and more aging cities with higher %s of retiring folk leaving and passing-on can hurt Northern cities too. Certainly not LA though..... but even retiring folk there seek cheaper areas also. Bot weather related Bu having real winters of course.
"In this Trump area"

That's not entirely true since it was going down before he got into office. And other cities like Houston, DFW, Atlanta, etc., have seen upticks in international immigration. Why go to all the way to Chicago when you can just stop in Dallas or Houston and be closer to family in the home country? I think this is the main reason why places like LA, NYC, and Chi have seen less international immigrants.
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Old 09-14-2019, 02:14 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DabOnEm View Post
"In this Trump area"

That's not entirely true since it was going down before he got into office. And other cities like Houston, DFW, Atlanta, etc., have seen upticks in international immigration. Why go to all the way to Chicago when you can just stop in Dallas or Houston and be closer to family in the home country? I think this is the main reason why places like LA, NYC, and Chi have seen less international immigrants.
Well there is a reason Chicago was growing its predominately Mexican Latino population over the decades..... it had great housing stock in neighborhoods they made their own.

But its them areas gentrification spreads into first too. Like they pave the way first and get pushed further into its bungalow-belt and border suburbs built as the city.

The city has had Hispanics pass African Americans in population % in 2016. Basically, European White slight majority 1/3 Then Hispanics 1/3 and African Americans as 3rd but basically just under a 1/3.

But still many Latinos count as White too. So depends he its counted too as Wikipedia list and separates them.

So my point is for a NORTHERN CITY ..... Chicago gained much in Mexicans FAR from the Medico border. So to say they merely stated south isn't totally true for this city's example.

Cost and gentrification of their neighborhoods too did not help within the city as I noted for Chicago. The majority of Chicago's gentrified neighborhoods and newer one. Still follow the change to Hispanic neighborhoods odd first.

Perhaps Chicago s unique in this? Also, most Northern cities fewer mass undercount in this census. I've read it in more then one thread and link. Corrections always come and generally increases then.

Even bringing over family by new immigrants working in the US. Is under Trump less. Migrations north of them isn't sustaining the once new constant influx of new Latinos. Migration south is still continuing overall as Corporate America always steered Great Migrations.

I do believe it will slow in coming years. Cost rising fast and infrastructure cost in their sprawling cities. We also are seeing newer northern tiered .... but still southern mid-sized cities rising. Closer northagain .......

Last edited by DavePa; 09-14-2019 at 02:26 PM..
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Old 09-14-2019, 03:56 PM
 
1,796 posts, read 1,459,739 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluecarebear View Post
The rich are leaving NYC. Socialism kills growth.
Lol actually it's the opposite. If you look at the data, it's people who are on the lower end of the income spectrum who are leaving NYC/SF/LA, etc and going to cheaper cities like Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Vegas etc.
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Old 09-14-2019, 04:27 PM
 
Location: Greater Boston (Formerly Orlando and New York)
795 posts, read 305,889 times
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New York? Because its literally a dump and its wicked overpriced for what it is. People from NYC seem to be heading to Boston, Philly or Florida.

Los Angeles? COL is way too high given the pay. Better alternatives like Phoenix, Seattle and Denver where people are flocking too.

Chicago? The crime and the decline.
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Old 09-14-2019, 07:12 PM
 
3,720 posts, read 1,790,696 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by masssachoicetts View Post
New York? Because its literally a dump and its wicked overpriced for what it is. People from NYC seem to be heading to Boston, Philly or Florida.

Los Angeles? COL is way too high given the pay. Better alternatives like Phoenix, Seattle and Denver where people are flocking too.

Chicago? The crime and the decline.
Think its all political with you by far. But what a post. Clearly aimed at demeaning .... three iconic cities.
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Old 09-15-2019, 07:26 AM
 
Location: Chicago
6,341 posts, read 6,844,182 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by masssachoicetts View Post
New York? Because its literally a dump and its wicked overpriced for what it is. People from NYC seem to be heading to Boston, Philly or Florida.

Los Angeles? COL is way too high given the pay. Better alternatives like Phoenix, Seattle and Denver where people are flocking too.

Chicago? The crime and the decline.
If Chicago were "in decline", it sure has found a super charged way of being so...the growth downtown and adjacent areas is off the charts. Our fears are not the lack of development; it is overdevelopment. Crime exists everywhere. Chicago is not a city high in crime or high in murder; yes, the raw numbers are high (highest actually) due to the large size of the city, but the rate is not anywhere near among the highest.

You lose a lot of credibility when you write off New York as a dump and Chicago being in decline. And let me relate that to those raw numbers of murders that are #1 in the nation. What makes us stand out in this regard is because of two cities, New York and Los Angeles. The two are our only megacities, both coastal and I believe each has a certain set of advantages built in that lowers the murder rate compared to other US cities.

And what vision from hell would make anyone think that Phoenix is a good alternative from Los Angeles?
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