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Old 06-05-2010, 04:47 PM
 
56,511 posts, read 80,803,243 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adirondackguy123 View Post
judging by my last research, losses in many upstate counties are starting to speed up.
According to what? Where are they going to? There counties like Saratoga, Orange, Jefferson, Tompkins, Ontario, Seneca and Clinton that have actually seen growth, among some others. So, it's not something that is the same throughout Upstate NY. From what I've seen, the losses in many counties is very slow.
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Old 06-06-2010, 10:50 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ckhthankgod View Post
According to what? Where are they going to? There counties like Saratoga, Orange, Jefferson, Tompkins, Ontario, Seneca and Clinton that have actually seen growth, among some others. So, it's not something that is the same throughout Upstate NY. From what I've seen, the losses in many counties is very slow.

according to ers data sets county level population,

where do you think there going? south and west.

and the few counties that have seen some growth is also very slow

with orange being the exception and even orange is starting to slow up.
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Old 06-07-2010, 09:35 AM
 
Location: IN
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Of course people are leaving Upstate NY. The tax burden is high regardless of how low the real estate goes. Also, many don't realize that a good chunk of Upstate is fairly socially conservative as well. I saw a few conversion vans full of kids with NY plates the last time I was on the thruway, and they sure weren't church buses.
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Old 06-07-2010, 11:18 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by adirondackguy123 View Post
according to ers data sets county level population,

where do you think there going? south and west.

and the few counties that have seen some growth is also very slow

with orange being the exception and even orange is starting to slow up.
Again, there are actually more than a few counties and we know people are leaving. My point is that not all of the counties in Upstate NY have people leaving and it's not as fast as people would have you to think.
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Old 06-07-2010, 11:20 AM
 
56,511 posts, read 80,803,243 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
Of course people are leaving Upstate NY. The tax burden is high regardless of how low the real estate goes. Also, many don't realize that a good chunk of Upstate is fairly socially conservative as well. I saw a few conversion vans full of kids with NY plates the last time I was on the thruway, and they sure weren't church buses.
I would say that moderate is the word for Upstate NY, with some give and take.
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Old 06-08-2010, 09:10 AM
 
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Though wouldn't many of the places be declining in population due to either non-replacment birthrates as well as just a general decline in population of many rural areas nationally?
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Old 06-08-2010, 02:44 PM
Led
 
Location: Astoria, Queens
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Look how successful Toronto is, just being across the lake from Buffalo. There's definitely hope for rust belt cities, they just have to find their niche.
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Old 06-08-2010, 03:13 PM
 
Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife)
13,217 posts, read 17,945,732 times
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Originally Posted by imperialmog View Post
Though wouldn't many of the places be declining in population due to either non-replacment birthrates as well as just a general decline in population of many rural areas nationally?
Parameters of metro Pittsburgh's population decline

1. The death rate is higher than the birth rate. This is a legacy of the steel bust during the 1980's. Tenured employees -- older employees, that is -- kept their jobs longer, which meant that the younger, inexperienced workers had to leave to find work. This wiped out much of the "Baby Boomer" generation in the region (plus their children), and artificially inflated the region's median age in the process. Now, those older, tenured employees who stuck around are dying off; meanwhile, the birth rate in the region remains low. This results in a natural population decline. Pittsburgh is now in the second and final stage of its population correction.

2. Not enough people are arriving from elsewhere. Everybody seems to think the problem is the opposite -- too many people leaving -- but that has not been true since sometime during the 1990's. The real mass exodus was during the 1980's, as I explained above. The truth is, not very many people are leaving the Pittsburgh area anymore, but with the exception of last year, even fewer people have arrived. (Hopefully last year wasn't just a blip.) Some people cite a lack of jobs as a reason for the lack of new arrivals, but last I heard, there are a good 22,000 job openings available in the area, and many of the employers who have openings have talked about how hard it is to recruit people from elsewhere. (The average salary wasn't bad either.)

3. Still lagging in foreign immigration. Pittsburgh is the only major U.S. metro in which the majority of foreign immigrants have college degrees, which sounds impressive, but it's mainly because of the dearth of immigrants in the area. (Most U.S. immigrants don't have college degrees.) The good news is, there are noticeably more of them than before, but the bad news is, there's still a long way to go for Pittsburgh to reemerge as the immigrant magnet it was 100 years ago.
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Old 06-08-2010, 04:04 PM
 
1,250 posts, read 2,115,798 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gnutella View Post
Parameters of metro Pittsburgh's population decline

1. The death rate is higher than the birth rate. This is a legacy of the steel bust during the 1980's. Tenured employees -- older employees, that is -- kept their jobs longer, which meant that the younger, inexperienced workers had to leave to find work. This wiped out much of the "Baby Boomer" generation in the region (plus their children), and artificially inflated the region's median age in the process. Now, those older, tenured employees who stuck around are dying off; meanwhile, the birth rate in the region remains low. This results in a natural population decline. Pittsburgh is now in the second and final stage of its population correction.

2. Not enough people are arriving from elsewhere. Everybody seems to think the problem is the opposite -- too many people leaving -- but that has not been true since sometime during the 1990's. The real mass exodus was during the 1980's, as I explained above. The truth is, not very many people are leaving the Pittsburgh area anymore, but with the exception of last year, even fewer people have arrived. (Hopefully last year wasn't just a blip.) Some people cite a lack of jobs as a reason for the lack of new arrivals, but last I heard, there are a good 22,000 job openings available in the area, and many of the employers who have openings have talked about how hard it is to recruit people from elsewhere. (The average salary wasn't bad either.)

3. Still lagging in foreign immigration. Pittsburgh is the only major U.S. metro in which the majority of foreign immigrants have college degrees, which sounds impressive, but it's mainly because of the dearth of immigrants in the area. (Most U.S. immigrants don't have college degrees.) The good news is, there are noticeably more of them than before, but the bad news is, there's still a long way to go for Pittsburgh to reemerge as the immigrant magnet it was 100 years ago.
Now is there the phenomenon of people who left returning years later since I have heard that occuring too. Also wasn't a big reason for younger people leaving was too that ones with college degrees couldn't find job in their particular field since the job market didn't have as many jobs for people with higher education? I am curious is weather or not similar demographic issues occur in other places. I can see in St. Louis area this is occuring to a lesser degree and happened later. I am just seeing over time the ironic situation of areas having not enough workers in particular fields due to demographic shift.

Also wasn't some industries and/or cities have their manufacturing job declines at different times? I would think that plays a part into how far along transition is. (that and how sharp a decline it was too)
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Old 06-08-2010, 08:06 PM
 
Location: The canyon (with my pistols and knife)
13,217 posts, read 17,945,732 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by imperialmog View Post
Now is there the phenomenon of people who left returning years later since I have heard that occuring too. Also wasn't a big reason for younger people leaving was too that ones with college degrees couldn't find job in their particular field since the job market didn't have as many jobs for people with higher education? I am curious is weather or not similar demographic issues occur in other places. I can see in St. Louis area this is occuring to a lesser degree and happened later. I am just seeing over time the ironic situation of areas having not enough workers in particular fields due to demographic shift.

Also wasn't some industries and/or cities have their manufacturing job declines at different times? I would think that plays a part into how far along transition is. (that and how sharp a decline it was too)
The job situation largely depends on the type of job. Because metro Pittsburgh's population has been decreasing, that acts as a drag on the creation of population-dependent jobs -- jobs like bankers, accountants, teachers and retail workers, among others. On the other hand, the rate of population-independent job growth -- jobs like research scientists, engineers and web designers, among others -- has been nearly twice the national average.

The bad news is, about 70 percent of all jobs created in the U.S. are population-dependent, and this is why Pittsburgh's overall job growth is below the national average in spite of its well-above-average rate of population-independent job growth.

The good news is, population-independent jobs are more likely to be highly-skilled, require a graduate or professional degree, and have higher average salaries. This is why Pittsburgh is getting smarter in spite of getting smaller, and also why it's a leader in income growth in spite of being a laggard in overall job growth.
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