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Old 10-01-2008, 01:29 AM
 
Location: Sacramento, CA
1,196 posts, read 4,345,219 times
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I can't believe that LA/SD and the Bay area were left out.
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Old 10-01-2008, 01:45 AM
 
Location: southern california
55,744 posts, read 74,738,506 times
Reputation: 48278
growth will depend on safety. has not been problem thus far as the rich could avoid conflict by mobility. if they are forced to live in high crime areas the law must change. self defense must be decriminalized (set back the clock 50 years) and personal injury suits must be banned if injury occurs in the commission of a crime.
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Old 10-01-2008, 06:45 AM
 
Location: Jersey City
6,490 posts, read 16,188,466 times
Reputation: 5646
Quote:
Originally Posted by oilpainter View Post
You children do realize this is for statistical purposes and has no real value in a real world of core attributes and cultures associated with the intrinsic identities of each city.... it means nothing. Especially when you cross state lines.... but we've been through this folly before. 'Mega' and 'BosWash' are the terms of a child
State lines don't have much influence in folks' decisions to find a suitable suburb for themeselves to commute from. But like you said, we've been through this many times.
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Old 10-01-2008, 10:54 AM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland/ Piedmont, CA
32,405 posts, read 55,275,168 times
Reputation: 15495
Quote:
Originally Posted by popalnet View Post
I think what's going to keep SF Bay from expanding is the cost of living. The SF bay CSA hasn't grown much in the last 10 years or more because of this.

I remember when the SF CSA was bigger than the DC/Baltimore CSA. But, in 2006 the CSA of DC was 8.2 mill and the SF Bay CSA was 7.2 mill: Largest Metropolitan Areas

I've even read that the 2008 CSA estimate of DC metro was close to 9 mill thanks to the ecomonic boom in that area caused by the Iraq/Afghanistan wars. Apparently a lot of the money spent on the war has gone to companies headquartered in the DC metro area. However, I can't seem to find that link to post as a citation. That's why 6 of the top 10 highest income counties are in the DC metro: Highest-income counties in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If the cost of living wasn't so high in the SF Bay Area, then it would be a top contender.
Incorrect.

Washington-Baltimore has always been larger than the Bay Area. Washington surpassed the Bay Area when it was combined with Baltimore in 2001. Prior, the Bay Area was larger.

Some people are unaware of what's occurring in Northern California. This notion of interdependence among Metro Areas is actually greater here-far greater in fact, then Chicago/Milwaukee and NY/ Philadelphia.

By 2050, The 100-mile radius around San Francisco is going to be home to 24 Million people and the Bay Area will be the principal job center so what that means is eventual consolidations that will create the 3rd largest metropolitan entity in the US.
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Old 10-01-2008, 12:15 PM
 
11,194 posts, read 22,419,385 times
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^so.....you're saying something like 14 million people are going to move to the Bay area? Have fun with that!
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Old 10-01-2008, 12:29 PM
 
367 posts, read 1,178,627 times
Reputation: 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by 18Montclair View Post
Incorrect.

Washington-Baltimore has always been larger than the Bay Area. Washington surpassed the Bay Area when it was combined with Baltimore in 2001. Prior, the Bay Area was larger.

Some people are unaware of what's occurring in Northern California. This notion of interdependence among Metro Areas is actually greater here-far greater in fact, then Chicago/Milwaukee and NY/ Philadelphia.

By 2050, The 100-mile radius around San Francisco is going to be home to 24 Million people and the Bay Area will be the principal job center so what that means is eventual consolidations that will create the 3rd largest metropolitan entity in the US.
I guess I got the MSA versus CSA confused. Even then the SF Bay metro is growing very slow because of cost of living.

In response to your other comment - Even if the CSA of SF Bay is going to encompass a 100 mile radius around SF by 2050 - even then there is no way it will add another 17 million to its existing 7 million population. How on earth is it possible to add 17 mill in 40 years?
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Old 10-01-2008, 12:47 PM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland/ Piedmont, CA
32,405 posts, read 55,275,168 times
Reputation: 15495
Quote:
Originally Posted by popalnet View Post

I remember when the SF CSA was bigger than the DC/Baltimore CSA. But, in 2006 the CSA of DC was 8.2 mill and the SF Bay CSA was 7.2 mill: Largest Metropolitan Areas
Incorrect. The SF CSA was never bigger than DC-Baltimore. In 2001, when CMSAs were replaced by CSAs, Washington and Baltimore were combined and together are larger than the SF CSA.

Quote:
If the cost of living wasn't so high in the SF Bay Area, then it would be a top contender.
What the numbers for the SF CSA dont reveal is the number 1 destination of people leaving The Bay Area-The Central Valley. 85% of households leaving the 11-county Bay CSA move to the surrounding Metros and nearly 200,000 people now commute from the hinterlands into the Bay Area. More commuters flow into the Bay Area from outside than anywhere else.

The Nothern California MegaRegion extends across this vast territory



Here are some numbers
Northern California Mega Region
Total Population 14 Million
Core Population 11 Million

2050 Estimates
Total Population 24 Million
Core Population 19 Million

By 2050, if we follow the same guidelines used to define Metro Areas today, San Francisco will absorb the surrounding 12-16 counties and have a total population greater than 20 Million.

Here is midday traffic near the Border of the Bay Area and San Joaquin County. During commute times, this is the site of Northern California's worst traffic, often backing up for 20-40 miles sometimes all the way into Stockton.
http://www.ibabuzz.com/transportation/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/eb%20580%20-%20Kathleen%20Turley%20-%20staff.jpg (broken link)


By 2050 if trends continue, LA will be first, NY will be 2nd and SF will probably be 3rd.
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Old 10-01-2008, 12:48 PM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland/ Piedmont, CA
32,405 posts, read 55,275,168 times
Reputation: 15495
Quote:
Originally Posted by popalnet View Post
I guess I got the MSA versus CSA confused. Even then the SF Bay metro is growing very slow because of cost of living.

In response to your other comment - Even if the CSA of SF Bay is going to encompass a 100 mile radius around SF by 2050 - even then there is no way it will add another 17 million to its existing 7 million population. How on earth is it possible to add 17 mill in 40 years?

Im not talking about the Bay Area-but the counties that surround us along with the Bay Area will constitute a massive megalopolis larger than LA and SD combined today.
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Old 10-01-2008, 12:51 PM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland/ Piedmont, CA
32,405 posts, read 55,275,168 times
Reputation: 15495
We sometimes call this area "MegaloNorCal"..

California State Population Projections, 2050
2050 Population Projections by The California State Department of Finance

California 2000 34,043,198
California 2010 39,246,767
California 2020 43,851,741
California 2030 48,110,671
California 2040 51,598,596
California 2050 54,777,700

Counties and Metros, 2050

Los Angeles 11,423,198
Orange 3,702,641
Riverside 4,305,161
San Bernardino 3,289,254
Ventura 1,071,905
LA Metro 23,792,159

Alameda 2,315,045
Contra Costa 1,848,177
Marin 225,127
Napa 221,466
San Benito 105,032
San Francisco 706,192
San Mateo 826,342
Santa Clara 2,325,538
Santa Cruz 293,350
Solano 830,830
Sonoma 796,792
SF Metro 10,493,891

San Diego County(SD Metro) 4,506,099

El Dorado 282,331
Placer 657,385
Sacramento 2,856,427
Yolo 407,691
Sacramento Metro 4,293,834

Fresno 1,658,281
Madera 302,859
Fresno Metro 1,961,140

San Joaquin County(Stockton Metro) 1,707,599
Kern County( Bakersfield Metro) 1,549,594
Stanislaus County(Modesto Metro) 941,562
Merced County(Merced Metro) 625,313
Monterey County(Salinas Metro) 654,847

2050
Total Southern California 31,356,294
Total Northern California 23,421,406

Los Angeles-Orange County CBSA 15,125,839
Riverside-San Bernardino CBSA 7,594,415
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont CBSA 5,920,883

MegaloNorCal 18,717,046(San Francisco-Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto-Salinas)

If the state's estimates hold true, then the state's northern megalopolis will surpass the LA Basin in percentage growth and numeric growth. Something that hasnt occured since-uh, 1900?(LOL)

Total MegaloNorCal 2000 10,360,255
Total MegaloNorCal 2050 18,717,046
2000-2050 Net Change +8,356,791
2000-2050 Growth +80.6%

Total LA Metro Area 2000 16,444,350
Total LA Metro Area 2050 23,792,159
2000-2050 Net Change +7,347,809
2000-2050 Growth +44.6%




http://www.dof.ca.gov/html/Demograp/...lease_5-04.pdf (broken link)
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Old 10-01-2008, 01:06 PM
 
367 posts, read 1,178,627 times
Reputation: 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by 18Montclair View Post
Incorrect. The SF CSA was never bigger than DC-Baltimore. In 2001, when CMSAs were replaced by CSAs, Washington and Baltimore were combined and together are larger than the SF CSA.



What the numbers for the SF CSA dont reveal is the number 1 destination of people leaving The Bay Area-The Central Valley. 85% of households leaving the 11-county Bay CSA move to the surrounding Metros and nearly 200,000 people now commute from the hinterlands into the Bay Area. More commuters flow into the Bay Area from outside than anywhere else.

The Nothern California MegaRegion extends across this vast territory



Here are some numbers
Northern California Mega Region
Total Population 14 Million
Core Population 11 Million

2050 Estimates
Total Population 24 Million
Core Population 19 Million

By 2050, if we follow the same guidelines used to define Metro Areas today, San Francisco will absorb the surrounding 12-16 counties and have a total population greater than 20 Million.

Here is midday traffic near the Border of the Bay Area and San Joaquin County. During commute times, this is the site of Northern California's worst traffic, often backing up for 20-40 miles sometimes all the way into Stockton.



By 2050 if trends continue, LA will be first, NY will be 2nd and SF will probably be 3rd.
That's a huge area. If that's the case then Boston, NYC, Philly, Baltimore, and DC will be the largest metro in the world.

And the pic of the traffic isn't that bad - it looks like there are nice gaps in between cars. DC beltway traffic during non-rush is worst than that.
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