Are crime figures adjusted for climate? (how much, home, neighborhoods)
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Hearing about how much time northerners spend indoors due to snowstorms and freezing weather has made me wonder if the crime index figures referred to on this site take weather into consideration.
We can pretty much go out and about 24/7 here, while that doesn't seem to be the case in colder climates. Do crime stats compare apples to apples when the reality is more like apples to oranges?
Sounds like another one of those Florida ways to bash the Yankees. Hey, they ain't counting all their crime.
Weather probably does have an effect on certain types of crime. Like fewer cars get stolen in Big Snow Blizzards. Outdoor type crime is affected by the weather in the winter months but indoor crime probably goes up enough to compensate. Full moon brings out a lot of weird stuff in all seasons.
Winter can actually increase certain types of crime. In Boston they only try to steal your coat (even if you are wearing it, called coat-jacking) in the winter, unless they still have some room under their arm in a summer B/E. In summer they have to be content with just your watch and money, car if you happen to be driving one.
Crime stats in Florida are probably lower than they should be because criminals know the pickings are there 24/7/365 both inside and outside and do not live up to their full professional potential. Unlike squirrels they feel no need to store up nuts, loot, money for a long winter.
Some places big winter storms bring more crime because they know it is more difficult to be seen or caught when all the snow is flying. Plus gunshots are a lot more muffled. Easy to wear coats with hoods on them for making withdrawls from banks, gas stations or the nearest 7-11. Cops in Florida have it much more easy, they only have to drive in sand on some calls.
Very common crime in the various neighborhoods of Boston. If you read the local neighborhood newspapers, like for West Roxbury, Hyde Park, Dorchester, etc your typical police reports say juvenile walking west 11 am on Bumheart Ave was confronted by two black males, a knife was shone, taken was juvenile black leather jacket and hat. Moral do not go out better dressed than the other guys.
On occasion they might even do him for a pizza or some other food. Just about anything is fair game, including lunch money.
In a small town the newspapers might reflect the total crime in the area. In larger cities the major newspapers never do. Even fairly large drug busts don't get reported. Especially in a place like Boston where the level of crime by the very young, even as low as 8 or 9 years old was totally hushed up. The cops just took them home to momma. Lot of it was going on.
So, yes the crime stats might be way off the mark in various places but weather is probably a very minor factor in the equation.
Florida seemed to have its own brand of some of the same things. Old local punks like maybe in their 30's driving around and drinking at night then trying to smash a beer bottle in each driveway on a particular street. Never saw any of that activity in the local newspapers either. Maybe the Florida crime stats need to be jacked way up to reflect the real situation by those old enough to go to jail.
I just had a thought reading thru these posts -- yep, another Floridian here. (And we're not bashing "Yankees". Just inquisitive minds...)
In your opinon, is there more domestic violence during hot, miserable summers or during the winter when everybody's cooped up together so much of the time?
(And yes, we have our fair share of domestic violence too.)
I have read that there is more crime in hot weather, FL TN NANA. Tempers rise with the thermometer. But being housebound due to snow probably contributes to increases in domestic violence and child abuse.
Right after I started this thread I saw on tv that some criminals come down for the winter....
And, FWIW, I am a yankee...Verona, NJ. Born in Montclair.
Southern crime data should be adjusted for sweating
Yeah, hot weather is probably more crime due to emotions than in cold weather.
After all if you just shoveled 12 inches of wet snow out of the driveway you ain't interested in any type of crime, not even wife / kid beating. Just want some hot soup and a place to lay down.
I liked that one episode on the TV show COPS in Chicago during one of those heat spells. Big black guy was naked and in some barber shop, sweating like a pig and a dozen cops couldn't get him down. Too slippery to hold on too, nothing to grab.
So are the Florida crime stats adjusted for slippery folks who get away and are not counted? Seems to me they sweat at least nine months of the year to say the North's three months of the year. Should have to have a sweat ratio index compensator for the relevent mean data spread of the Maxwell - Boltzman distributions showing factors in a 3 dimensional vector for ratio curve fittings. To git your apples to apples mind you.
One can argue Southern crime is very under reported based on many criterion. If the northern criminals are going south for the winter there is probably no home state responsibility in a statistical sense. There sure were some weird imports in that Sebring area. Perp's wanted in 10 other states and they just wanted a nice winter break and had to get pulled over for speeding in a school zone. That and the drugs they had on them, with maybe a bit of loot from the last B/E. But hey they belong to whoever catches them. Statistical wise.
Unfortunately, it's pretty common around here (the DC area). There's been at least 10 cases I know of where people (mostly teenagers) have been robbed, and sometimes shot, for their Northface jackets.
I too have read that crime is markedly higher in the warmer months than it is in the Winter with the exception of December when there is traditionally a spike in burglaries, car break-ins, shoplifting and robberies, all due to the holiday season with people carrying large amounts of cash, and hording lots of presents in their home and car.
Crime stats should not be adjusted for weather or climate. Stats tell us how likely it is a crime will occur. If there's a 1:2000 chance I'll get mugged in Orlando vs. a 1:20000 chance in Anchorage, that's all that's relevant from the perspective of probability. Why it occurs (too cold to go out, less criminals in town, etc.) is a separate topic.
I have also heard that crime is much higher in warmer months + around Christmas.
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