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Old 01-28-2009, 09:07 PM
 
Location: Teaneck, NJ
1,576 posts, read 5,138,955 times
Reputation: 683

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better or worse
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Old 01-28-2009, 09:13 PM
 
Location: West Cobb County, GA (Atlanta metro)
9,188 posts, read 30,242,745 times
Reputation: 5131
All financial "experts" (at least those being interviewed on TV) have said 2009 will get worse, and in 2010 we'll begin to see an upturn.

It's one of those, "You can't just suddenly stop a snowball going down a mountain" things. The snowball was already rolling near full speed, and even with a change in Administration in DC, and even if they come up with some good ideas to turn things around, the snowball's gotta hit bottom before it'll melt and things can dig out of the snow. (dang that sounded pretty good).
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Old 01-28-2009, 09:20 PM
 
4,465 posts, read 7,021,188 times
Reputation: 796
My guess is about like last year. The watered-down stimulus package will help, some. But until we re-industralize we are just postponing our end as a society rather than avoiding it.
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Old 01-28-2009, 09:25 PM
 
Location: IN
20,853 posts, read 35,976,422 times
Reputation: 13304
The stock market has been going up the past several days, though. Hopefully a bottom has been reached there for the time being.
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Old 01-28-2009, 09:26 PM
 
28,905 posts, read 46,757,067 times
Reputation: 46033
I think 1Q is going to be both scary and crappy. 2Q we'll have hit bottom, and will remain there. 3Q, people will get tired of floundering and will start taking risks and making things happen. 4Q, we'll start seeing some moderate growth.
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Old 01-28-2009, 09:55 PM
 
Location: West Cobb County, GA (Atlanta metro)
9,188 posts, read 30,242,745 times
Reputation: 5131
Funny enough, I've actually heard a couple of financial gurus say that when this is all over, "The American way of life will be drastically different than it has been for the last few decades". They say in their opinion, it will be positive overall, but very different, and SOME folks will have a hard time with the adjustment.

Of course, the U.S. is a vastly large area and there is no actual SET "American way of life". In each region and even cities, you'll find different ways of life. Some of them are very laid back and Mayberryish, and others the complete opposite. We still have small town American places left, with a lot of Wal-mart culture now mixing in.

A more localized expert used Atlanta as a poster child for more obvious changes once the County pulls out of the hole. Atlanta has for many years been growing faster than most places in North America. It has a higher concentration of cookie cutter shopping center strip malls than anywhere else in North America. Shopping here is actually considered a HOBBY by many people. Developers could build a strip mall and within weeks it would be completely filled by the same chain stores that exist only a few miles away in yet another strip mall. They could build subdivisions of cheaply made homes that would sell out before they were even finished building phase 1. Well, today, we now have whole subdivisions of unsold homes. Entire shopping centers are sitting EMPTY. Yep - things are changing.

Example (photo below): This shopping center is one of MANY throughout our metro area. It's up the road from me. The banks allowed the developer to borrow money to build it with NO tenants signed up beforehand. He built it - poof - no tenants as small business people here are now holding off plans to open stores. This center has been sitting completely empty for nearly a year now and he's being sued by subcontractors he hasn't paid. This scenario is being duplicated throughout many areas of Atlanta's metro:


The theory by the time this is all over, is that we will shop less, save more, eat out less, cook in more, travel shorter distances for vacations, and basically, become Europeans. LOL. That's overdue and good to some - bad to others. But it'll be interesting to see how folks handle the "transition" during the next year or so while it happens (and it won't be pretty in some areas of the economy).
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Old 01-29-2009, 08:08 PM
 
Location: Santa Fe, NM
125 posts, read 402,244 times
Reputation: 52
The stimulus package will provide a temporary boost. Then back to detererioration.

You have to keep in mind: we are only in the second year of the biggest correction in the financial markets in 100 years.

A "normal" recession lasts on average three to five years. By all measures, we are not in anything normal, which means we should expect much poorer performance.

Those are my thoughts as a former commodity trader

Quote:
Originally Posted by Newarkbomb View Post
better or worse
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Old 01-30-2009, 06:38 AM
 
Location: Little Rock, AR
138 posts, read 325,669 times
Reputation: 89
Quote:
Originally Posted by atlantagreg30127 View Post
Funny enough, I've actually heard a couple of financial gurus say that when this is all over, "The American way of life will be drastically different than it has been for the last few decades". They say in their opinion, it will be positive overall, but very different, and SOME folks will have a hard time with the adjustment.

Of course, the U.S. is a vastly large area and there is no actual SET "American way of life". In each region and even cities, you'll find different ways of life. Some of them are very laid back and Mayberryish, and others the complete opposite. We still have small town American places left, with a lot of Wal-mart culture now mixing in.

A more localized expert used Atlanta as a poster child for more obvious changes once the County pulls out of the hole. Atlanta has for many years been growing faster than most places in North America. It has a higher concentration of cookie cutter shopping center strip malls than anywhere else in North America. Shopping here is actually considered a HOBBY by many people. Developers could build a strip mall and within weeks it would be completely filled by the same chain stores that exist only a few miles away in yet another strip mall. They could build subdivisions of cheaply made homes that would sell out before they were even finished building phase 1. Well, today, we now have whole subdivisions of unsold homes. Entire shopping centers are sitting EMPTY. Yep - things are changing.

Example (photo below): This shopping center is one of MANY throughout our metro area. It's up the road from me. The banks allowed the developer to borrow money to build it with NO tenants signed up beforehand. He built it - poof - no tenants as small business people here are now holding off plans to open stores. This center has been sitting completely empty for nearly a year now and he's being sued by subcontractors he hasn't paid. This scenario is being duplicated throughout many areas of Atlanta's metro:


The theory by the time this is all over, is that we will shop less, save more, eat out less, cook in more, travel shorter distances for vacations, and basically, become Europeans. LOL. That's overdue and good to some - bad to others. But it'll be interesting to see how folks handle the "transition" during the next year or so while it happens (and it won't be pretty in some areas of the economy).
Here in Little Rock, they built a huge "upscale lifestyle center" out on the edge of town that was supposed to have tenants that are "new" to LR that most larger cities have but this market has been lacking. Some of the initial signed tenants were Macy's (the first in the state), Dillard's, Cheesecake Factory, an Apple store (another first), an IMAX theater, several restaurants, and many mid-range to upper end clothing stores. Some floods delayed construction last spring into the fall, and by the time the center was completed, the stock market had crashed, and EVERY ONE of the tenants that had initially signed on pulled out but the IMAX theater, an ice cream parlor, and some teen clothing store. Aside from that, we have a brand new "upscale lifestyle center" just sitting empty and it will probably stay that way for the next few years. With no other tenants, I will be surprised if the ice cream shop and the teen clothing store are able to hold on.

While I have mixed opinions on cookie cutter development such as this, I was looking dang forward to that Apple store.

As for when this will improve, it depends on who you ask. Some say things will turn around by Q4 of this year, others say this is permanent and there won't be a recovery.
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Old 01-30-2009, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Greater PDX
1,018 posts, read 3,728,212 times
Reputation: 941
2009 will be a bloodbath - many people are still in denial about just how bad the situation is. The stimulus will serve to line the pockets of those who helped bring about the collapse, as well as politically popular people. Is a check for $500-$1000 really going to balance out your increased house payment due to your ARM? And in light of job insecurities etc. are you really going to blow it all on stuff you don't really need?

By midyear the media and politicos will finally start thinking of the word Depression, even if they are reluctant to speak it out loud.
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Old 01-31-2009, 07:45 AM
 
1,246 posts, read 2,989,708 times
Reputation: 1829
Everyone is going to lose their jobs, and we are all going to have to eat each other.

It's true.
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