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Old 02-12-2009, 06:49 PM
 
2,758 posts, read 4,921,502 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BDubLR View Post
Exactly. The suburbs aren't going anywhere and long as people have some sort of transportation between their suburban home and their jobs. Suburbia has been engraved into American culture. Rural areas on the otherhand....
I don't like living in rural areas but we really need those ruralist who grow/raise our food. If they crash then I think that there's a great chance that we all can crash or we import like crazy (do more business with South America or some other country if they haven't crashed themselves).
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Old 02-12-2009, 07:05 PM
 
Location: Oak Park, IL
5,522 posts, read 12,283,883 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Summers View Post
I don't like living in rural areas but we really need those ruralist who grow/raise our food. If they crash then I think that there's a great chance that we all can crash or we import like crazy (do more business with South America or some other country if they haven't crashed themselves).
The whole history of the US is a story of increased urbanization as farmers become more and more efficient and fewer and fewer of them are required to grow our food supply. Portions of the rural Great Plains have fewer people now than over 100 years ago when it was frontier. And yet we grow enough food for our country with extra for export.
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Old 02-12-2009, 09:43 PM
 
Location: IN
20,846 posts, read 35,932,344 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sukwoo View Post
The whole history of the US is a story of increased urbanization as farmers become more and more efficient and fewer and fewer of them are required to grow our food supply. Portions of the rural Great Plains have fewer people now than over 100 years ago when it was frontier. And yet we grow enough food for our country with extra for export.
Now we just need a more functional FDA
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Old 02-13-2009, 01:56 PM
 
Location: Greater PDX
1,018 posts, read 3,725,899 times
Reputation: 941
The young-urban-core group living in overpriced condos for the social scene is entirely dependent upon conspicuous consumption. What's so awesome about living next to a coffee shop if you are too strapped for cash to buy your daily latte?

There will always be a solid group of people who WANT to have a backyard. If anything, technology is making it less imperative to live close to work. If gas prices go through the roof, many of the professionals can tele-commute.
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Old 02-13-2009, 02:42 PM
 
1,965 posts, read 5,786,349 times
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Get out your crystal ball-
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Old 02-13-2009, 05:50 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
2,851 posts, read 5,587,031 times
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Interesting article. But I'm not so sure America should be so quick to abandon the development of it's vast underdeveloped areas of land. That has been and still is one of the big advantages America holds over places like Europe and Japan. Why would we not want to take advantage of the extra space we have?

All in all though I think the core of America's problem is not the real estate debacle ( that is just a symptom) But the fact that we consume far more from others than we our selves produce. This is totally nonsensical as America despite popular belief still has more natural resources per capita, greater educational attainment (at the University level) and more human talent than any other major nation. All of this has become underused or not used at all because the powers that be (and to an extent the American consumer) has decided that America is incapable of competing with the rest of the world when it comes to manufacturing.

I think this is a fallacy. Sure it's difficult to impossible to compete with low wage countries such as China, and Mexico but we are losing just as much to high wage countries like Japan and Germany who are still thriving (the recent downturn only recently and temporarily setting them back) in the production of everything from automobile and steel to aircraft and production machinery.

The crash in real estate occurred after so much of Americas talent and resources had been funneled into the real estate and finance sectors. Partially because manufacturing has long been pronounced dead, partially because of an American disinterest in Engineering but also because the U.S. government has done alot to bolster this segment of the economy for good or bad (while like I said having never considered helping in anyway our manufacturing sector which has been left for dead) At every opportunity they have lowered interest rates and given tax breaks to and encouraged home ownership. This caused an inappropriately high spike in construction, financing and sale of homes resulting in overgrowth of the Real Estate and Banking sectors.

Manufacturing is much higher value adding than most of the service jobs that have taken it's place and further more they create an export base for the nation which allows the economy to not be so consumer oriented. Take Hollywood for example, even when American's get a little tired of watching movies it doesn't really hurt Hollywood because it's the worlds largest exporter of movies and can get by off sales to everyone from London to Tokyo. L.A. used to have exports not only from Hollywood but a huge aerospace industry, auto manufacturing, ship building and clothing. Only the ship building and clothing businesses were lost due to cheaper labor abroad. The auto and aerospace sectors shrunk due to the influx of better built goods from high salary paying places such as Japan and the E.U.. Places we should be able to compete with.
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Old 02-15-2009, 11:02 AM
 
1,245 posts, read 2,985,315 times
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I wasn't quite as impressed with this article as others were.

I don't believe that "the knowledge economy" (whatever that means) is going to be as big a part of the world's future as has been commonly believed.

I think we are at the start of decades or even centuries of unraveling. There will be unrest, wars, and a hundred years from now, no more "global economy" but rather smaller regional economies which will depend on manufacturing and farming by humans.

All of these scenarios about a super-clean, push-button future where all Americans go to college and spend their days in offices mining information and doing research conveniently ignore the millions and millions and millions of Americans and others around the globe who are left out of this scenario. Do you think these people are going away? (or that they will merely be a service force of waitresses, janitors and masseuses who don't produce anything?)

I believe the "young urban core" crowd is an endangered species (as others mentioned, their birth rate is pretty low) and that the early 21st century probably represents their historical high point of influence and political relevance, at least for a long time to come. The movers and shakers of the future will be the children of the displaced farmers and factory workers; because the higher education complex will no longer be able to process them; and they won't all be heading to Manhattan or Atlanta, they'll either be staying at home and creating change there, in a desperate atmosphere; or will be migrating into urban areas and causing unrest there.

Last edited by Jeromeville; 02-15-2009 at 11:12 AM..
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Old 02-15-2009, 11:42 AM
 
Location: Oak Park, IL
5,522 posts, read 12,283,883 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeromeville View Post
I wasn't quite as impressed with this article as others were.

I don't believe that "the knowledge economy" (whatever that means) is going to be as big a part of the world's future as has been commonly believed.

I think we are at the start of decades or even centuries of unraveling. There will be unrest, wars, and a hundred years from now, no more "global economy" but rather smaller regional economies which will depend on manufacturing and farming by humans.

All of these scenarios about a super-clean, push-button future where all Americans go to college and spend their days in offices mining information and doing research conveniently ignore the millions and millions and millions of Americans and others around the globe who are left out of this scenario. Do you think these people are going away? (or that they will merely be a service force of waitresses, janitors and masseuses who don't produce anything?)

I believe the "young urban core" crowd is an endangered species (as others mentioned, their birth rate is pretty low) and that the early 21st century probably represents their historical high point of influence and political relevance, at least for a long time to come. The movers and shakers of the future will be the children of the displaced farmers and factory workers; because the higher education complex will no longer be able to process them; and they won't all be heading to Manhattan or Atlanta, they'll either be staying at home and creating change there, in a desperate atmosphere; or will be migrating into urban areas and causing unrest there.
You raise a couple of interesting points. Nobody can predict the future with certainty, so we'll have to wait 100 years a see how things turn out. I will point out, however, that the "young urban core" has always had a relatively low birth rate, and despite this, has grown over the past few decades. This is due to the fact that it grows not through birth, but by recruitment . I know quite a urban granola types who started life as rural evangelicals.
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Old 02-15-2009, 01:10 PM
 
1,245 posts, read 2,985,315 times
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Quote:
This is due to the fact that it grows not through birth, but by recruitment
Quite right, but what's the recruitment process depend on? Higher education. And the complexity and expense of higher education cannot be sustained indefinitely. The system is already groaning under the strain. As more and more recruits are funnelled in to an increasing number of schools, the schools (even community colleges) are becoming prohibitively expensive and extremely bloated. This trend certainly won't reverse itself by throwing more money at it. At some point, it's going to experience a collapse.

In any case, large numbers of "urban core" folk are now in danger of falling out of the middle class precisely because of the high expense of a college education. They're not going to be in any position to run anything.

Meanwhile, reproduction is a fairly cheap and low-tech means of augmenting the numbers of a particular population. :-) And hungry people don't stop thinking and planning.
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Old 02-15-2009, 04:28 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
34,672 posts, read 33,671,635 times
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But he doesn't mention the revolution coming...and I don't mean some green one. Also, the need to be physically where your job is --- I don't see that in the future for a lot of white collar work.
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