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Old 11-23-2009, 03:49 PM
 
Location: Florida
4,186 posts, read 10,299,394 times
Reputation: 1589

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Orlando is predicted to move from rank 28 to 19 gaining over a million people. I hope this isn't true.
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Old 11-23-2009, 09:28 PM
 
Location: DC
529 posts, read 1,022,908 times
Reputation: 293
I dunno...these predictions seem so linear. And it assumes that the general growth trends of people moving south and west will continue.

I have a feeling that the shift in population may change over the next 20 years. This whole housing crisis has hurt cities like Phoenix and all of Florida way worse than cities in the rust belt for example. And c'mon...will LA really continue to be a popular destination? California is a mess.

I predict that we will see population booms in cities like DC, Baltimore, Chicago, and Pittsburgh, when other cities like LA, Phoenix, San Fran, and Vegas will start losing population.
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Old 11-23-2009, 09:47 PM
 
3,970 posts, read 11,828,812 times
Reputation: 1576
Quote:
Originally Posted by toredyvik View Post
I dunno...these predictions seem so linear. And it assumes that the general growth trends of people moving south and west will continue.

I have a feeling that the shift in population may change over the next 20 years. This whole housing crisis has hurt cities like Phoenix and all of Florida way worse than cities in the rust belt for example. And c'mon...will LA really continue to be a popular destination? California is a mess.

I predict that we will see population booms in cities like DC, Baltimore, Chicago, and Pittsburgh, when other cities like LA, Phoenix, San Fran, and Vegas will start losing population.
I tend to agree. Although I wouldn't say the cities you mention will "boom". I think what is more likely to happen is that the so-called "hot" cities will stabilize, and the so-called "cold" cities (not temp, but pop. growth) will do better than expected. Natural cycle in a downturn.
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Old 11-24-2009, 08:00 AM
 
Location: Fresno
254 posts, read 618,083 times
Reputation: 164
Quote:
Originally Posted by toredyvik View Post
I dunno...these predictions seem so linear. And it assumes that the general growth trends of people moving south and west will continue.

I have a feeling that the shift in population may change over the next 20 years. This whole housing crisis has hurt cities like Phoenix and all of Florida way worse than cities in the rust belt for example. And c'mon...will LA really continue to be a popular destination? California is a mess.

I predict that we will see population booms in cities like DC, Baltimore, Chicago, and Pittsburgh, when other cities like LA, Phoenix, San Fran, and Vegas will start losing population.
Don't know about the other cities, but the Bay Area has seen it's population boom in the last 3-4 years. What is interesting is when the housing bubble was at it's peak, alot of people were buying houses in the surrounding counties, then making the 2 hour commute to the Bay Area to their job.

Now that housing situation imploded, all those surrounding counties are the ones with the highest foreclosure rates, and yet all those people started moving back to the Bay Area to be closer to their job again. Interesting situation...
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Old 11-24-2009, 08:28 AM
 
Location: Somewhere in the universe
2,161 posts, read 3,988,157 times
Reputation: 1434
How accurate is all of this? I hate these long term predictions. Just based on a couple of years they think they can predict the future. Things are already changing now.
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Old 11-24-2009, 07:37 PM
 
Location: metro ATL
8,190 posts, read 12,326,275 times
Reputation: 2698
Quote:
Originally Posted by pw72 View Post
I tend to agree. Although I wouldn't say the cities you mention will "boom". I think what is more likely to happen is that the so-called "hot" cities will stabilize, and the so-called "cold" cities (not temp, but pop. growth) will do better than expected. Natural cycle in a downturn.
I agree. It's pretty hard for old established cities to "boom" since they're already pretty much built out. But I could see a relative boom coming to Pittsburgh which would reverse the declining population and, as you said, cause it to do better than expected in that department. The same could happen for Cleveland and Detroit if they were to take a page out of Pittsburgh's playbook and tailor it towards their specific situations.
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Old 11-24-2009, 09:10 PM
 
Location: Phoenix
5,643 posts, read 7,446,834 times
Reputation: 4317
Quote:
Originally Posted by toredyvik View Post
I dunno...these predictions seem so linear. And it assumes that the general growth trends of people moving south and west will continue.

I have a feeling that the shift in population may change over the next 20 years. This whole housing crisis has hurt cities like Phoenix and all of Florida way worse than cities in the rust belt for example. And c'mon...will LA really continue to be a popular destination? California is a mess.

I predict that we will see population booms in cities like DC, Baltimore, Chicago, and Pittsburgh, when other cities like LA, Phoenix, San Fran, and Vegas will start losing population.


LA, PHX, SF, and Vegas most likely will NOT lose population. They may slow in population gains, but I do not predict population losses anytime soon. In addition, 20 years is also a long time for a city to bounce back, even after a housing crisis. In the meanwhile, the Sunbelt cities will most likely densify.

Lastly, I'm not sure why you needed to pour on the elitist attitude...and c'mon...I'm not sure what the point was calling California a mess.
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Old 11-30-2009, 04:19 PM
 
1,201 posts, read 1,988,036 times
Reputation: 717
memphis continues its steady increase in metro population growth, about 4.7 to 5.1% per year and 5.7% overall since 2000. so much city and regional infrastructure has been revamped or added to the area, and, hopefully, w/ the addition of a third mississippi river bridge in north memphis, the metro/micropolitan areas of jonesboro and blytheville, ar will be merged w/ memphis. a bridge would put both of these cities w/in 25-30 minutes drives of the city of memphis. it would also call for a change in the designated metropolitan formation, and it would result in a definite csa for the greater memphis area, which, along w/ 4 other major metropolitan areas, currently has no designated csa. after inquiry from the u.s. census bureau, a sensible explanation has never been given as to why memphis has no accurate metro and csa designation. several studies show regional memphis w/ a radiant catchment area of over 2.1 million people (60 miles from city center in all directions.) most believe politics prevails---memphis, 8 county metro area, no designated csa; nashville-davidson county, 13 county metro area, 14 or 15 counnty area for csa. they count horses, pigs, and chickens to help them project their numbers. nevertheless, memphis has a great deal going on in its metro...airport, entertainment, logistics and transportation, biotech, energy plant, river port, etc., all these things are coming together.
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Old 11-30-2009, 04:26 PM
 
737 posts, read 1,040,307 times
Reputation: 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by crystalblue View Post
I am curious how some of these areas are going to manage the growth.

Where are Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix going to get the water from?

How about traffic?
I was thinking the same thing about Dallas, there was an article about how Dallas is going to need either new sources of water, or find a way to conserve, by the year 2035. I can't find the article now.

As for traffic... DART in Dallas has plans expanding its light rail several miles over the next years. Green Line up to Carrollton, connecting with the DCTA A-Train to Denton, Blue Line extensions east into to Rowlett and into south Dallas, Orange Line to Irving and DFW airport, the Cotton Belt Communter line which will connect go from the red line in Plano all the way to DFW. There are more extensions of the rail which I probably misses, either way DART has some pretty ambitious plans with it's rail service.

Last edited by CityPerson09; 11-30-2009 at 05:07 PM..
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Old 11-30-2009, 05:02 PM
 
11,879 posts, read 32,908,658 times
Reputation: 8626
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingchef View Post
memphis continues its steady increase in metro population growth, about 4.7 to 5.1% per year and 5.7% overall since 2000. so much city and regional infrastructure has been revamped or added to the area, and, hopefully, w/ the addition of a third mississippi river bridge in north memphis, the metro/micropolitan areas of jonesboro and blytheville, ar will be merged w/ memphis. a bridge would put both of these cities w/in 25-30 minutes drives of the city of memphis. it would also call for a change in the designated metropolitan formation, and it would result in a definite csa for the greater memphis area, which, along w/ 4 other major metropolitan areas, currently has no designated csa. after inquiry from the u.s. census bureau, a sensible explanation has never been given as to why memphis has no accurate metro and csa designation. several studies show regional memphis w/ a radiant catchment area of over 2.1 million people (60 miles from city center in all directions.) most believe politics prevails---memphis, 8 county metro area, no designated csa; nashville-davidson county, 13 county metro area, 14 or 15 counnty area for csa. they count horses, pigs, and chickens to help them project their numbers. nevertheless, memphis has a great deal going on in its metro...airport, entertainment, logistics and transportation, biotech, energy plant, river port, etc., all these things are coming together.
What studies show 2.1 million people within 60 miles of downtown Memphis? That is absolutely ludicrous. At most that would add only about 350,000 people to the current Memphis MSA population. And most of those outlying counties (particularly in eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi) are actually losing population. You'd have to stretch your mythical Memphis CSA all the way to Little Rock to reach a population of 2.1 million.

And how on earth can one drive from Jonesboro or Blytheville to Memphis in 25-30 minutes? A 3rd bridge over the river would do nothing to make it a shorter drive. It's currently over 60 miles to either city from Memphis.

Your fantasy Memphis CSA is just that: a fantasy.
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