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Old 11-30-2009, 08:19 PM
 
3,284 posts, read 2,865,240 times
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I don't think these projections are correct at all. These formulas have obviously been quantified pre-recession. I just don't see all these Florida cities (among others) gaining such huge chunks of population in the next 15 years like this shows. There is no local industry, demand, nor young local populations to support these projections.

As you all can probably see, it cleary adjusts to the previous ten years of certain midwest industry decline because these formulas were calculated pre-recession.

I would wait another 3-5 years before I would give merit to any of these types of projections.

My opinion of course...
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Old 11-30-2009, 08:53 PM
 
Location: Somewhere in the universe
2,161 posts, read 3,987,359 times
Reputation: 1434
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jays1983 View Post
I don't think these projections are correct at all. These formulas have obviously been quantified pre-recession. I just don't see all these Florida cities (among others) gaining such huge chunks of population in the next 15 years like this shows. There is no local industry, demand, nor young local populations to support these projections.

As you all can probably see, it cleary adjusts to the previous ten years of certain midwest industry decline because these formulas were calculated pre-recession.

I would wait another 3-5 years before I would give merit to any of these types of projections.

My opinion of course...
That's what I was thinking...
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Old 12-01-2009, 10:24 AM
 
Location: Germantown, MD
1,359 posts, read 3,275,927 times
Reputation: 569
Good thread. The overall theme of the projections seems to be the rapid growth of the large cities in the Southwest and "New South" cities in the Southeast, at the expense of realtively flat growth in the industrial Northeast and upper Midwest. Obviously there are some exeptions such as Norfolk and Baltimore, which will have flat and high growth respectively.

So, if all else is held equal for the next 15 years, the projections would be very accurate. However, that's not likely to happen looking at history, unexpected events can have a very, very large impact on growth. During World War II (an unpredictable event) the population of the Northeast skyrocketed as people, blacks especially, moved from the South to work in factories in big industrial cities such as Detroit, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. Just this past year or two the recession has murdered home prices in "high growth" places such as Phoenix and Las Vegas. Then again the projection only looks forward 20 years, but you never know...
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Old 12-01-2009, 11:33 AM
 
Location: DC
529 posts, read 1,022,652 times
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Another thing to consider: if the recession gets so bad that entire cities are cut off from public supplies, i.e. water, then they will have to rely on local natural resources to survive. That doesn't bode well for cities like Vegas & Phoenix. Or is this just sounding like conspiracy theory now? I'm just thinking out loud. unexpected events.
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Old 12-01-2009, 03:05 PM
 
3,284 posts, read 2,865,240 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by toredyvik View Post
Another thing to consider: if the recession gets so bad that entire cities are cut off from public supplies, i.e. water, then they will have to rely on local natural resources to survive. That doesn't bode well for cities like Vegas & Phoenix. Or is this just sounding like conspiracy theory now? I'm just thinking out loud. unexpected events.
Lol, if things get that bad all cities will have those problems. Municipalities will no longer be able to purify water, pump sewage, provide electricity, etc.

Survival of the fittest; go buy some guns.
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Old 12-01-2009, 06:50 PM
 
737 posts, read 1,040,082 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kuato View Post
Interesting numbers, but I am sure we would all giggle a bit about them if presented again by 2025. My opinions:


1. Tampa Bay's growth is WAY overstated. You simply cannot suck many more lower middle-class residents out of the Midwest and place them in that nexus of underemployment and housing overcapacity at such a rate for the next 15 years. Stick a fork in the demographics of Florida (except perhaps Pensacola).

2. Phoenix as well - but replace "Midwest" with "people fleeing Southern California" and "New Yorkers who couldn't make it in New York". Oops - that last statement really just applies to Scotsdale, and is not my own.

3. Austin metro will surpass San Antonio metro as predicted - definitely by 2025, if not earlier. It will be interesting to see how San Antonio being Texas' "4th city" will pan out, especially on this forum.

4. Dallas nipping on the heels of Chicago's population? 50/50 shot on that one.

5. Detroit will continue the sad decline and become the Glasgow of America - which means that it will have a fairly good shopping mall built over the ruins of one-time industrial might. And a heroin problem. We are half-way there.
Isn't San Antonio already considered by most the "4th" behind DFW, Houston and Austin despite the population difference?
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Old 12-01-2009, 07:33 PM
 
3,284 posts, read 2,865,240 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CityPerson09 View Post
Isn't San Antonio already considered by most the "4th" behind DFW, Houston and Austin despite the population difference?
Yeah, if you're one of the many who buy into the Austin hype.
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Old 04-09-2010, 12:36 AM
am2
 
Location: Charlotte, NC
413 posts, read 744,981 times
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I doubt Atlanta will grow by that much (7.8) million by 2025. Maybe like 6.2 mil.
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Old 04-09-2010, 10:24 AM
 
Location: Washington, DC
638 posts, read 821,334 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EastBay-NowDCarea View Post
Since the CSA metro population is more appropriate for the DC metro area, that means with Baltimore combined it will potentially overtake Chicago for third place in CSA terms with over 10 mill.
Not hardly. Considering the current population that Bizjournals gave Chicago in 2025 10,233,137 is still larger than the CSA of Baltimore and DC the same year 9,582,299 (Chicago would still be up by nearly 700,000 people). Another factor one has to remember however is the pending change by the census bureau in calculating Chicago’s CSA. Due to increased economic links and travel the Milwaukee area will be included in the Chicago area soon. That combined CSA in 2025 would be 11,850,906 people, leaving DC in the dust.
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Old 04-12-2010, 10:00 PM
 
Location: Cedar Park, TX
580 posts, read 940,432 times
Reputation: 389
Damn, Philly's gonna slip by 5 places!
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