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It will be a question of cost. Some people live in the suburbs because they want a large yard, but others live there because they get more for their money. In some suburbs, and especially exurbs, you can live an pseudo upper-middle-class lifestyle on a working-class income.
Fuel prices would have to become astronomical before it becomes cheaper to live in the city.
No, but you may see a healthier balance between suburbs and cities though. Most families will continue to generally prefer the suburbs over the city to raise kids in for the schools, space, and safety. The young and childless will prefer the cities though for the most part.
I think some people need to realize this site is not representative of America in the least and it seems to skew some people's perceptions with regards to the appeal of cities.
It will be a question of cost. Some people live in the suburbs because they want a large yard, but others live there because they get more for their money. In some suburbs, and especially exurbs, you can live an pseudo upper-middle-class lifestyle on a working-class income.
Fuel prices would have to become astronomical before it becomes cheaper to live in the city.
That depends on the city. I know Youngstown is probably an extreme example, but if I had chosen to live in the suburbs, I wouldn't be living nearly as well as I am in the city. I would have had to pay at least twice as much to get an equivalent house.
I feel yes and no. Urban suburbs like Norwood (Cincinnati Ohio) and Dormont(Pittsburgh Pa.) are going to become more and more desirable ( they are already) while on the other hand , the suburbs built in the 1950s and 1960s will continue to see significant decline such as Penn Hills ( Pittsburgh Pa.) and Ford Hts ( Chicago.Ill.) Meanwhile as far as the bigger cities themselves are concerned ,alot of the inner areas are going to see continued gentrification as the newer outer city neighborhoods will continue to see decline. Reason being in many of those areas the housing ( which in many cases was built in the 50s and 60s) is not very appealing in the first place and I would not say it is aging gracefully. Some examples of that are the Oxford Circle/Castor Gardens neighborhoods in northeast Philadelphia and the Northland area and parts of the southeast side of Columbus Ohio.
If house costs $150k in the suburbs and $300k in the city that's a difference of roughly ~$1050 a month in housing costs (and a $150k gap between suburban housing and urban housing is quite low compared to reality IMO). How much would gas have to be to make up for that? If you commute, say, 50 miles a day (round trip) and don't have any commuting costs (somewhat unrealistic) if you work in the city, that's around 1100 miles a month for commuting. If you drive a car that gets 30 miles per gallon, gas would need to cost $29 a gallon to make up that difference. Sure, I'm ignoring maintenance costs, insurance costs, etc., but most urbanites still own cars so I don't really think you can just ditch a car because you move to the city. Most cities have pretty incomplete transit options, even in the core.
I think young people will move to the cities and they will become quite popular. But cities are a really long way from being reasonable places for children. Condos are just not a great option for raising children, but are great for childless couples or empty nesters. Exburban areas will be the ones that attract poor people eventually, and the inner ring suburbs (or outlying city neighborhoods) will become the most desirable housing for people in their 30s and beyond. While those houses are still a little smaller, they have yards, they are good for children, are often fairly historic and the housing stock is generally strong. These areas are also quite walkable in many cases and "feel" like city neighborhoods in a lot of ways. Plus they are close to city cores and public transportation probably serves them already in some capacity, and can be (relatively) easily extended to those areas.
Still, if you have young people and empty nesters moving to city cores (who will generally have lower income esp if some of these empty nesters are retired) and middle aged people moving to outlying city neighborhoods and inner ring suburbs, you probably accomplish the same thing, and then push out the poor people to housing further from the city. I really think the SFR that are close to city cores will have high values in the long term (think 25 years out and longer, since a lot of gentrification needs to happen).
No, for people to leave the 'burbs and move into the city, cities need to build affordable housing. Where I live [Norfolk], a house in the 'burbs a 3br/2bth would cost 400,000. A house in the core of the city would cost 600,000-1mil.. If those prices in the core would drop down to suburb levels I think cities would see their populations increase dramatically while the suburbs decreased.
If house costs $150k in the suburbs and $300k in the city that's a difference of roughly ~$1050 a month in housing costs (and a $150k gap between suburban housing and urban housing is quite low compared to reality IMO). How much would gas have to be to make up for that? If you commute, say, 50 miles a day (round trip) and don't have any commuting costs (somewhat unrealistic) if you work in the city, that's around 1100 miles a month for commuting. If you drive a car that gets 30 miles per gallon, gas would need to cost $29 a gallon to make up that difference. Sure, I'm ignoring maintenance costs, insurance costs, etc., but most urbanites still own cars so I don't really think you can just ditch a car because you move to the city. Most cities have pretty incomplete transit options, even in the core.
I think young people will move to the cities and they will become quite popular. But cities are a really long way from being reasonable places for children. Condos are just not a great option for raising children, but are great for childless couples or empty nesters. Exburban areas will be the ones that attract poor people eventually, and the inner ring suburbs (or outlying city neighborhoods) will become the most desirable housing. While those houses are still a little smaller, they have yards, they are good for children, are often fairly historic and the housing stock is generally strong. These areas are also quite walkable in many cases and "feel" like city neighborhoods in a lot of ways. Plus they are close to city cores and public transportation probably serves them already in some capacity, and can be (relatively) easily extended to those areas.
I agree with the second half of your post. But just how common is that kind of price difference between city and suburb that you describe in the first half? Maybe, living in the rust belt, I'm spoiled?
I agree with the second half of your post. But just how common is that kind of price difference between city and suburb that you describe in the first half? Maybe, living in the rust belt, I'm spoiled?
I thought all cities have that price difference between city and suburbs
Maybe it's just a rust belt thing? Until I started reading these forums, I thought it was always cheaper to live in the city. (with the exception of big cities like NYC, Chicago, and LA)
Around here, in NE Ohio, the most expensive houses are out in the suburbs/exurbs. There may be houses in the cities that are comparable in price to these McMansions, but the city house/property will probably be better than the suburban house in every way except size of yard, and quality of schools.
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