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The "trends" in Texas are no different than they were in most red states in 08. Texas was 56% red.
The only red states with margin of victory over 60% were Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Utah and Alabama.
Texas had essentially the same percentage as Mississippi, Kansas, Nebraska, Tennessee, both Dakotas, West Virginia and Kentucky
Texas had a greater margin of victory than Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Montana and Missouri.
So unless this country becomes a one party country, Texas is safe in the red. All those other states are either as or more likely to become blue as Texas is.
The "trend" in Texas was due more to anger at the Republicans being at an all time high. NC, VA, FL and NV (usually red) went blue this election, many other red states were much closer than they should have been. Despite all that, Texas was still more red than many "red" states were. It's already been proven in the Virginia governor election that this trend won't last.
And even on the very rare chance that Texas ever does go blue, notice I used the term conservative. Most of the blue votes are coming from minorities, not liberals. Texas democrats are conservative, not liberal democrats. Texas is a conservative state, red or blue.
You have to take in the fact that Texas is a much bigger state than those states you named. I'd say Texas is more moderate than straight out conservative. You have four big cities which include about 70-80% of the Texas population. All of those cities went blue; as well as the the RGV area. Cities all the I35 corridor are becoming more progressive and slowly becoming more moderate as we speak; my own city of Waco has a city council made up of lots of democrats.
Houston's about to become the 1st major city with an openly gay mayor who just happens to be democratic. Montrose, houstons "hip" neighborhood/LGBT community was one of the top 10 neighborhoods proving that Houston has a thriving LGBT community.
Correct me if I'm wrong...but that election isn't over yet... isn't there a runoff?
Cities may trend liberal, but the overwhelmingly conservative suburbs in Texas more than make up for the slight majority in the cities. San Antonio and Houston both only had a slight margin of blue......35,000 and 18,000 respectivley......while every single surrounding county in both areas was red by a much greater margin....
Dallas county is blue but is surrounded by solidly red conservative counties that far outnumber the blue margin in Dallas..
Austin is again, another Texas city surrounded by red counties...
El Paso and the RGV are blue, but I wouldn't call them liberal....
Away from the border, the rest of the state is solid red.
The difference between Texas and the swing states are the margin of blue in the cities and the solid red suburbs.
You have to take in the fact that Texas is a much bigger state than those states you named. I'd say Texas is more moderate than straight out conservative. You have four big cities which include about 70-80% of the Texas population. All of those cities went blue; as well as the the RGV area. Cities all the I35 corridor are becoming more progressive and slowly becoming more moderate as we speak; my own city of Waco has a city council made up of lots of democrats.
The metro areas do, not the city limits. DFW and Houston as a metro went red.
San Antonio went blue, but not by a big margin.
Austin did by a large margin, but that's the only one of the big 4 that did.
Yes the RGV is solid blue. But the big city down that way, Corups Christi, stayed red.
Plus Dallas county was the only county in the state north of Austin to go blue.
You left out an important factor on why some areas of Texas are blue: transplants
As more transplants move to Texas in the future, I see Texas getting bluer.
I don't think so. Most of the transplants are going to the metro areas, and only the core cities are blue. The suburbs are solid red and showing no signs of changing.
Transplant does not neccesarily mean blue.
Transplants and immigrants have been flocking to Florida (a state with virtually no native population) for decades, and it is still a swing state. Transplants do not neccesarily vote blue. Texas has a sizeable conservative native population as well.
I'm curious to find out what you all think of Austin. I lived there in the early 90's and have been back quite a few times since then. I feel that Austin has become more "watered down" in recent years and doesn't seem to be as unique as it used to be. Sure, it has some great qualities, but many people swear by Austin and believe it is the "it" town now, when I thought it was the "it" town back then. So, Austin...yeah or nay?
Name 1 city that ever lives up to all the "hype". If anything, cities that get put down, or are that "underrated", are the ones that are "under hyped".
Even a city as great as Nyc, doesn't live up to all the "hype". Certain cities elected officials, along with Hollywood, are great at keeping the myths going though.
I don't think so. Most of the transplants are going to the metro areas, and only the core cities are blue. The suburbs are solid red and showing no signs of changing.
Transplant does not neccesarily mean blue.
Transplants and immigrants have been flocking to Florida (a state with virtually no native population) for decades, and it is still a swing state. Transplants do not neccesarily vote blue. Texas has a sizeable conservative native population as well.
I know that, but people that move to the Sunbelt typically come from blue states. And the immigrants in Texas tend to vote blue as well.
I know that, but people that move to the Sunbelt typically come from blue states. And the immigrants in Texas tend to vote blue as well.
Many of them left the blue states and went to Texas because of the liberalism....
The immigrants are more consistently blue than the transplants, however many of them are coming from Mexico and a heavily Catholic background and can be quite conservative on social issues....
Correct me if I'm wrong...but that election isn't over yet... isn't there a runoff?
Cities may trend liberal, but the overwhelmingly conservative suburbs in Texas more than make up for the slight majority in the cities. San Antonio and Houston both only had a slight margin of blue......35,000 and 18,000 respectivley......while every single surrounding county in both areas was red by a much greater margin....
Dallas county is blue but is surrounded by solidly red conservative counties that far outnumber the blue margin in Dallas..
Austin is again, another Texas city surrounded by red counties...
El Paso and the RGV are blue, but I wouldn't call them liberal....
Away from the border, the rest of the state is solid red.
The difference between Texas and the swing states are the margin of blue in the cities and the solid red suburbs.
Obviously right now Texas is a state owned by the GOP, but I think it is more appropriate to look at the trends of the counties.
Before Obama, Dallas County hadn't voted for a Democrat at the Presidential level since 1964, same with Harris County. The heavily GOP West Texas is declining in population.
I don't think Texas will even be considered a swing state next cycle, but the trends are favoring the Democrats. This is especially seen in the State House where several seats have flipped R->D the past few cycles. In Dallas County three seats, HD-101, 102, 107 flipped in '06 or '08 and HD-105 was barely kept by the GOP candidate by a mere 20 votes.
So if you are outside looking in at the national level Texas looks same 'ole same 'ole, but if you are inside looking out there have been some very positive Democratic trends in heavily populated parts of the state. Looking beyond the Presidential numbers the Dems do have a reason to be cautiously optimistic.
Obviously right now Texas is a state owned by the GOP, but I think it is more appropriate to look at the trends of the counties.
Before Obama, Dallas County hadn't voted for a Democrat at the Presidential level since 1964, same with Harris County. The heavily GOP West Texas is declining in population.
I don't think Texas will even be considered a swing state next cycle, but the trends are favoring the Democrats. This is especially seen in the State House where several seats have flipped R->D the past few cycles. In Dallas County three seats, HD-101, 102, 107 flipped in '06 or '08 and HD-105 was barely kept by the GOP candidate by a mere 20 votes.
So if you are outside looking in at the national level Texas looks same 'ole same 'ole, but if you are inside looking out there have been some very positive Democratic trends in heavily populated parts of the state. Looking beyond the Presidential numbers the Dems do have a reason to be cautiously optimistic.
Oh really? According to the sources I've seen (US Census) Lubbock and Amarillo are gaining quite a bit of population, not as much as the bigger cities, but they are gaining not losing population.
I wouldn't be so sure that these trends are going to last.....
Go to that link and on the right click the "voting shift" tab. It will show the shift in voting by displaying counties as either being more blue or more red.
The only part of the country that is more red than before is a narrow belt extending from Tennesse through Arkansas and into Texas. Only Lousiana, Arkansas, tennessee and Oklahoma were more red than before. Every other state was much bluer than before, including Utah.
Texas is one of only very few states that had a signifcant amount of counties go more red than before. Granted, they are outnumbered by the blue.....but the point is that several exist across the state.
However, the rest of the country outside that little belt was a lot more blue than before. Texas was significanlty less affected than most of the rest of the country was.
This is just to show that the blue trend is national, not a Texas thing. If anything, Texas is below the national average in terms of getting bluer this election.
My point is that this is a national trend, not a Texas trend. So either this country is fast approaching a one party political atmosphere or the trend will dissipate soon.
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