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Old 12-28-2009, 01:30 AM
 
Location: Northridge, Los Angeles, CA
2,685 posts, read 6,365,271 times
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I got this idea for this thread while analyzing the geographic concentration of output in New York State and California (http://www.city-data.com/forum/12185928-post470.html). I realized that looking at metro areas, things aren't ceteris paribus (all things are equal) based on population and dominant economic sector. The sad thing is, until governments around the United States act on a more regional, or metropolitan level (in this case), the direct effect of economic output will always go to the state and federal level before serving local needs. When it comes to metropolitan areas that span across more than 1 state, coordination between different local, state, and national jurisdictions is extremely difficult.

Anyways, the question I pose is 'how much does your metropolitan area contribute to your state's economy?' Does your metropolitan area contribute a significant amount of GDP toward your state's economy way out of proportion to its population (gives more than receives), or is it in proportion to how many people are in your state's economy (gives and receives in the right proportion), or is it significantly underrepresented in its economic output relying on other parts of the state to build its infrastructure (receives more than it gives)?

Source for GSP (2008): BEA : Gross Domestic Product by State
List of U.S. states by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Source for metropolitan GMP by MSA (to get CSA GMP, add all the MSA's included in that particular CSA) (2008): News Release: GDP by Metropolitan Area, Accelerated 2008, New 2007, and Revised 2005-2006
http://bea.gov/newsreleases/regional..._metro0909.pdf

Source of state population (2008): Population Estimates (http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.html - broken link)
List of U.S. states and territories by population - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Source of metropolitan area population (2008, by CSA): Table of United States Combined Statistical Areas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://www.census.gov/population/www...2008/List6.txt
Table of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (in case a CSA doesn't exist for you metropolitan area)
NOTE: I always default to the higher level of analysis for a more meaningful statistical result.

I know that it will be harder for metro areas that span across many states because the BEA statistics only analyze metropolitan populations on a MSA level, not on a county by county level, so its to anyone's guess which part of that MSA contributes to which state's economy (IE: NYC's MSA expands into NJ, but it doesn't separate how much of the GDP is in NJ or which part is in NY). The best thing that could be done is making an educated guess of how much effect a multi-state MSA makes into each state's economy.

I'll start [all population estimates from US Census in 2008]:

California
2008 Population: 36,756,666
GSP: $1,846,757,000,000

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA CSA (incl. LA, Riverside, and Oxnard MSAs)
2008 Population: 17,786,419 (48.3% of California's population)
2008 GMP: $866,095,000,000 (46.8% of California's GSP)

San Jose-San Francisco- Oakland, CA CSA (incl. San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Rosa, Vallejo, Santa Cruz, and Napa MSAs)
2008 Population: 7,354,555 (20% of California's population)
2008 GMP: $508,418,000,000 (27.5% of California's GSP)

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA
2008 Population: 3,001,072 (8.1% of California's population)
2008 GMP: $169,325,000 (9.1% of California's GSP)

Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Yuba City, CA-NV CSA (incl. Sacramento and Yuba City MSAs)
2008 Population (in CA): 2,376,145 (6.4% of California's population)
2008 GMP: $98,000,000 (5.3% of California's GSP)

Fresno-Madera, CA CSA (incl. Fresno and Madera MSAs)
2008 Population: 1,057,486 (2.8% of California's population)
2008 GMP: $26,485,000 (1.4% of California's GSP)

In the state of California:
-San Francisco and San Diego produce more for the California economy than their share of the California population (especially San Francisco CSA)
-Los Angeles, Sacramento, and Fresno produce less for the California economy than their share of the California population (especially Fresno)

So what does your state look like?
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Old 12-28-2009, 01:41 AM
 
Location: Colorado
2,561 posts, read 5,025,646 times
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California is the biggest loser, just a little thing called illlegal immigration. New York State does not suffer the same magnitude issue. Colorado is heading slowly down the path California is at now. The Golden State..not as Golden.
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Old 12-28-2009, 10:28 AM
 
Location: Midessa, Texas Home Yangzhou, Jiangsu temporarily
1,505 posts, read 3,848,071 times
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Texas

2008 Population: 24,326,974
GSP: $1,223,511,000,000

Dallas Ft. Worth Arlington

2008 Population: 6,300,006 (25.90% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $379,863,000,000 (31.05% of Texas' GSP)

Houston Sugarland Baytown
2008 Population: 5,728,143 (23.55% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $403,202,000,000 (32.95% of Texas' GSP)

San Antonio
2008 Population: 2,031,445 (8.35% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $80,896,000,000 (6.61% of Texas' GSP)

Austin Round Rock
2008 Population: 1,652,602 (6.79% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $80,077,000,000 (6.54% of Texas' GSP)

El Paso
2008 Population: 742,062 (3.05% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $26,353,000,000 (2.15% of Texas' GSP)

Midland Odessa (my CSA)
2008 Population: 260,435 (1.07% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $17,125,000,000 (1.40% of Texas' GSP)

Last edited by Lucidus; 12-28-2009 at 10:42 AM..
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Old 12-28-2009, 10:50 AM
 
104 posts, read 220,738 times
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Alabama
2008 Population: 4,661,900
GSP: $165,796,000,000

Birmingham-Hoover MSA
Pop: 1,117,608 (24.0%)
GMP: $54,274,000,000 (32.7%)

Mobile MSA
Pop: 406,309 (8.7%)
GMP: $15,074,000,000 (9.1%)

Huntsville MSA
Pop: 395,645 (8.5%)
GMP: $19,274,000,000 (11.6%)

Montgomery MSA
Pop: 365, 924 (7.8%)
GMP: $14,699,000,000 (8.9%)
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Old 12-28-2009, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Northridge, Los Angeles, CA
2,685 posts, read 6,365,271 times
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Thanks for both posters for replying back!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucidus View Post
Texas

2008 Population: 24,326,974
GSP: $1,223,511,000,000

Dallas Ft. Worth Arlington

2008 Population: 6,300,006 (25.90% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $379,863,000,000 (31.05% of Texas' GSP)

Houston Sugarland Baytown
2008 Population: 5,728,143 (23.55% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $403,202,000,000 (32.95% of Texas' GSP)

San Antonio
2008 Population: 2,031,445 (8.35% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $80,896,000,000 (6.61% of Texas' GSP)

Austin Round Rock
2008 Population: 1,652,602 (6.79% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $80,077,000,000 (6.54% of Texas' GSP)

El Paso
2008 Population: 742,062 (3.05% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $26,353,000,000 (2.15% of Texas' GSP)

Midland Odessa (my CSA)
2008 Population: 260,435 (1.07% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $17,125,000,000 (1.40% of Texas' GSP)
I didn't realize how dependent Texas was on Dallas and Houston! I always thought of it being as being a balanced state within the Texas Triangle (with Austin and San Antonio having the third disproportionate share of the TX economy). However, it seems kind of apparent that Texas is dependent on Houston oil money, but it isn't as bad as I thought it would be!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nemean View Post
Alabama
2008 Population: 4,661,900
GSP: $165,796,000,000

Birmingham-Hoover MSA
Pop: 1,117,608 (24.0%)
GMP: $54,274,000,000 (32.7%)

Mobile MSA
Pop: 406,309 (8.7%)
GMP: $15,074,000,000 (9.1%)

Huntsville MSA
Pop: 395,645 (8.5%)
GMP: $19,274,000,000 (11.6%)

Montgomery MSA
Pop: 365, 924 (7.8%)
GMP: $14,699,000,000 (8.9%)
How many people in Alabama live outside MSA areas? I'm guessing there is a lot of rural poverty, but not on the level of the midwest. Thanks for your contribution!
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Old 12-28-2009, 01:58 PM
 
Location: Midessa, Texas Home Yangzhou, Jiangsu temporarily
1,505 posts, read 3,848,071 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lifeshadower View Post

I didn't realize how dependent Texas was on Dallas and Houston! I always thought of it being as being a balanced state within the Texas Triangle (with Austin and San Antonio having the third disproportionate share of the TX economy). However, it seems kind of apparent that Texas is dependent on Houston oil money, but it isn't as bad as I thought it would be!
I think people try and play up the importance of Austin and San Antonio and make it seem like they are cities of the same caliber as Dallas and Houston when clearly that is not the case. For now, Austin and San Antonio are still second tier cities in Texas.
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Old 12-28-2009, 02:46 PM
 
104 posts, read 220,738 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lifeshadower View Post
How many people in Alabama live outside MSA areas? I'm guessing there is a lot of rural poverty, but not on the level of the midwest. Thanks for your contribution!
Actually, a little under 30%, the rest of the metros are rather small though. If you look at the metro map on wikipedia, there is a huge white space between Mobile and the rest of the metros. This is the area known as the Black belt, where there is a good amount of poverty. I think last time I checked, one county had almost 25% unemployment.

Here are the rest of the metros:
Decatur (part of Huntsville's CSA)
Pop: 150,125 (3.2%)
GMP: $5,256,000,000 (3.2%)
Dothan
Pop: 140,961 (3.0%)
GMP: $4,423,000,000 (2.7%)
Tuscaloosa
Pop: 206,765 (4.4%)
GMP: $8,106,000,000 (4.9%)
Auburn-Opelika
Pop: 133,010 (2.9%)
GMP: $3,559,000,000 (2.1%)
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Pop: 143,791 (3.1%)
GMP: $3,919,000,000 (2.4%)
Anniston-Oxford
Pop: 113,419 (2.4%)
GMP: $3,918,000,000 (2.4%)
Gadsden
Pop: 103,303 (2.2%)
GMP: $2,601,000,000 (1.6%)

Columbus, GA
50,085 in Alabama (1.1% of Alabama's population)
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Old 12-29-2009, 02:30 AM
 
Location: Northridge, Los Angeles, CA
2,685 posts, read 6,365,271 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nemean View Post
Actually, a little under 30%, the rest of the metros are rather small though. If you look at the metro map on wikipedia, there is a huge white space between Mobile and the rest of the metros. This is the area known as the Black belt, where there is a good amount of poverty. I think last time I checked, one county had almost 25% unemployment.
Thanks for the information! I would have figured that many of these areas have become somewhat depopulated, especially after the Great Migration of the mid 20th century, leaving less and less of an economic base to work with, with more people to leave due to lack of jobs. However, has the opening of new manufacturing plants helped alleviate some of the problem? I hope so


Alright, I figured out a(n imperfect) way to take into account a multi-state MSA/CSA in accounting for gauging a metropolitan area's affect on the economy by adding all the affected states involved and analyzing them as a whole (unless the area within an adjoining state is too small or >2% of a population within a given state or CSA, making it too insignificant in terms of statistical analysis).

For example:

New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA (incl. New York, Bridgeport, New Haven, Poughkeepsie, Trenton, and Kingston MSA's)

Combined Population of NY, NJ, and CT (Pike County, PA is only 56,337 people): 31,716,324
Combined GSP of NY, NJ, and CT: $1,835,683,000,000

2008 Population of CSA: 22,154,752 (69.9% of the population of the three states combined)
2008 GMP: $1,434,094,000,000 (78.1% of the combined GSP)

Chicago-Naperville, Michigan City, IL-IN-WI CSA (incl. Chicago, Kankakee, Michigan City MSA's)

Combined Population of IL and IN (Kenosha County, WI has only 164,465 people): 19,278,355
Combined GSP of IL and IN: $880,136,000,000

2008 Population of CSA: 9,793,036 (50.7% of the two states combined)
2008 GMP: $527,102,000,000 (59.8% of the combined GSP)

Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV (incl. Washington, Baltimore, and Winchester MSAs)

Combined Population of DC, MD, and VA (Hampshire County, WV has only 20,203 people): 14,002,343
Combined GSP of DC, MD, and VA: $745,198,000,000

2008 Population of CSA: 8,295,397 (59.2% of the combined states)
2008 GMP:$533,542,000,000 (71.6% of the combined GSP)

There's really no surprises here, since all three areas represent a huge chunk of their regions economy and population. However, it is clear that Washington-Baltimore play an almost hegemonic role in their region's economy (especially over Virginia, where NoVa really makes up a disproportionate bulk of economic output) since most of our federal dollars end up in their hands.

However, it is clear from all three analyses that the Northeast urban areas and Chicago generally form a bulk of the economy out of proportion to their population size, leaving many rural areas unemployed and destitute.

I was expecting more activity in this thread, but I guess not If anyone else is interested in the figures for certain areas, I can try to calculate it for you.

Last edited by Lifeshadower; 12-29-2009 at 02:44 AM..
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Old 12-29-2009, 10:37 AM
 
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Interesting thread. But as you demonstarted above, it gets kind of fuzzy when MSAs cross state lines. My MSA (Mpls/St. Paul/Boomington), includes a couple counties in WI. I think I'd have to break it down to the county level to get apples:apples. While we'd know what % of the population is in the WI counties, what share of the GMP would be attributed to the WI counties?
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Old 12-29-2009, 11:20 AM
 
Location: Northridge, Los Angeles, CA
2,685 posts, read 6,365,271 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ben Around View Post
Interesting thread. But as you demonstarted above, it gets kind of fuzzy when MSAs cross state lines. My MSA (Mpls/St. Paul/Boomington), includes a couple counties in WI. I think I'd have to break it down to the county level to get apples:apples. While we'd know what % of the population is in the WI counties, what share of the GMP would be attributed to the WI counties?
I was thinking of that too, but the problem is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis or any other government institution except for the county itself produces any county-by-county GDP statistics. The best thing I could do is increase the sample size, since either way it will show if there is a disparity or not. However, usually when a MSA crosses county lines, it may also show commuting patterns only and not economic activity, which is why I threw out some counties that were extremely small (>2%) in population in terms of their % of the population within the state they reside in AND in terms of the % of population in the MSA/CSA they reside in (Pike County, Kenosha County, and Hampshire County)

Which brings us to another question; what's more important: metropolitan areas or states?

Fortunately, for the Twin Cities area, St. Croix and Pierce County, Wisconsin only make up only 102,155 people, making up less than 1% of both Wisconsin's population AND the Twin Cities area as a whole. Their effect on GMP and WI GSP would be minimal, at best.

Minnesota
2008 Population: 5,220,393
2008 GSP: $254,970,000,000

Minneapolis-St.Paul-St.Cloud, MN-WI CSA (incl. Minneapolis and St.Cloud MSAs)
2008 Population (MN only): 3,460,129 (66.3% of Minnesota's population)
2008 GMP: $201,476,000,000 (79% of Minnesota's GSP)
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