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I got this idea for this thread while analyzing the geographic concentration of output in New York State and California (http://www.city-data.com/forum/12185928-post470.html). I realized that looking at metro areas, things aren't ceteris paribus (all things are equal) based on population and dominant economic sector. The sad thing is, until governments around the United States act on a more regional, or metropolitan level (in this case), the direct effect of economic output will always go to the state and federal level before serving local needs. When it comes to metropolitan areas that span across more than 1 state, coordination between different local, state, and national jurisdictions is extremely difficult.
Anyways, the question I pose is 'how much does your metropolitan area contribute to your state's economy?' Does your metropolitan area contribute a significant amount of GDP toward your state's economy way out of proportion to its population (gives more than receives), or is it in proportion to how many people are in your state's economy (gives and receives in the right proportion), or is it significantly underrepresented in its economic output relying on other parts of the state to build its infrastructure (receives more than it gives)?
I know that it will be harder for metro areas that span across many states because the BEA statistics only analyze metropolitan populations on a MSA level, not on a county by county level, so its to anyone's guess which part of that MSA contributes to which state's economy (IE: NYC's MSA expands into NJ, but it doesn't separate how much of the GDP is in NJ or which part is in NY). The best thing that could be done is making an educated guess of how much effect a multi-state MSA makes into each state's economy.
I'll start [all population estimates from US Census in 2008]:
California
2008 Population: 36,756,666
GSP: $1,846,757,000,000
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA CSA (incl. LA, Riverside, and Oxnard MSAs)
2008 Population: 17,786,419 (48.3% of California's population)
2008 GMP: $866,095,000,000 (46.8% of California's GSP)
San Jose-San Francisco- Oakland, CA CSA (incl. San Francisco, San Jose, Santa Rosa, Vallejo, Santa Cruz, and Napa MSAs)
2008 Population: 7,354,555 (20% of California's population)
2008 GMP: $508,418,000,000 (27.5% of California's GSP)
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA 2008 Population: 3,001,072 (8.1% of California's population)
2008 GMP: $169,325,000 (9.1% of California's GSP)
Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Yuba City, CA-NV CSA (incl. Sacramento and Yuba City MSAs)
2008 Population (in CA): 2,376,145 (6.4% of California's population)
2008 GMP: $98,000,000 (5.3% of California's GSP)
Fresno-Madera, CA CSA (incl. Fresno and Madera MSAs)
2008 Population: 1,057,486 (2.8% of California's population)
2008 GMP: $26,485,000 (1.4% of California's GSP)
In the state of California:
-San Francisco and San Diego produce more for the California economy than their share of the California population (especially San Francisco CSA)
-Los Angeles, Sacramento, and Fresno produce less for the California economy than their share of the California population (especially Fresno)
California is the biggest loser, just a little thing called illlegal immigration. New York State does not suffer the same magnitude issue. Colorado is heading slowly down the path California is at now. The Golden State..not as Golden.
2008 Population: 24,326,974
GSP: $1,223,511,000,000
Dallas Ft. Worth Arlington
2008 Population: 6,300,006 (25.90% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $379,863,000,000 (31.05% of Texas' GSP)
Houston Sugarland Baytown
2008 Population: 5,728,143 (23.55% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $403,202,000,000 (32.95% of Texas' GSP)
San Antonio
2008 Population: 2,031,445 (8.35% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $80,896,000,000 (6.61% of Texas' GSP)
Austin Round Rock
2008 Population: 1,652,602 (6.79% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $80,077,000,000 (6.54% of Texas' GSP)
El Paso
2008 Population: 742,062 (3.05% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $26,353,000,000 (2.15% of Texas' GSP)
Midland Odessa (my CSA)
2008 Population: 260,435 (1.07% of Texas' population)
2008 GMP: $17,125,000,000 (1.40% of Texas' GSP)
I didn't realize how dependent Texas was on Dallas and Houston! I always thought of it being as being a balanced state within the Texas Triangle (with Austin and San Antonio having the third disproportionate share of the TX economy). However, it seems kind of apparent that Texas is dependent on Houston oil money, but it isn't as bad as I thought it would be!
How many people in Alabama live outside MSA areas? I'm guessing there is a lot of rural poverty, but not on the level of the midwest. Thanks for your contribution!
Location: Midessa, Texas Home Yangzhou, Jiangsu temporarily
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lifeshadower
I didn't realize how dependent Texas was on Dallas and Houston! I always thought of it being as being a balanced state within the Texas Triangle (with Austin and San Antonio having the third disproportionate share of the TX economy). However, it seems kind of apparent that Texas is dependent on Houston oil money, but it isn't as bad as I thought it would be!
I think people try and play up the importance of Austin and San Antonio and make it seem like they are cities of the same caliber as Dallas and Houston when clearly that is not the case. For now, Austin and San Antonio are still second tier cities in Texas.
How many people in Alabama live outside MSA areas? I'm guessing there is a lot of rural poverty, but not on the level of the midwest. Thanks for your contribution!
Actually, a little under 30%, the rest of the metros are rather small though. If you look at the metro map on wikipedia, there is a huge white space between Mobile and the rest of the metros. This is the area known as the Black belt, where there is a good amount of poverty. I think last time I checked, one county had almost 25% unemployment.
Actually, a little under 30%, the rest of the metros are rather small though. If you look at the metro map on wikipedia, there is a huge white space between Mobile and the rest of the metros. This is the area known as the Black belt, where there is a good amount of poverty. I think last time I checked, one county had almost 25% unemployment.
Thanks for the information! I would have figured that many of these areas have become somewhat depopulated, especially after the Great Migration of the mid 20th century, leaving less and less of an economic base to work with, with more people to leave due to lack of jobs. However, has the opening of new manufacturing plants helped alleviate some of the problem? I hope so
Alright, I figured out a(n imperfect) way to take into account a multi-state MSA/CSA in accounting for gauging a metropolitan area's affect on the economy by adding all the affected states involved and analyzing them as a whole (unless the area within an adjoining state is too small or >2% of a population within a given state or CSA, making it too insignificant in terms of statistical analysis).
For example:
New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA CSA (incl. New York, Bridgeport, New Haven, Poughkeepsie, Trenton, and Kingston MSA's)
Combined Population of NY, NJ, and CT (Pike County, PA is only 56,337 people): 31,716,324
Combined GSP of NY, NJ, and CT: $1,835,683,000,000
2008 Population of CSA: 22,154,752 (69.9% of the population of the three states combined)
2008 GMP: $1,434,094,000,000 (78.1% of the combined GSP)
Chicago-Naperville, Michigan City, IL-IN-WI CSA (incl. Chicago, Kankakee, Michigan City MSA's)
Combined Population of IL and IN (Kenosha County, WI has only 164,465 people): 19,278,355
Combined GSP of IL and IN: $880,136,000,000
2008 Population of CSA: 9,793,036 (50.7% of the two states combined)
2008 GMP: $527,102,000,000 (59.8% of the combined GSP)
Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV (incl. Washington, Baltimore, and Winchester MSAs)
Combined Population of DC, MD, and VA (Hampshire County, WV has only 20,203 people): 14,002,343
Combined GSP of DC, MD, and VA: $745,198,000,000
2008 Population of CSA: 8,295,397 (59.2% of the combined states)
2008 GMP:$533,542,000,000 (71.6% of the combined GSP)
There's really no surprises here, since all three areas represent a huge chunk of their regions economy and population. However, it is clear that Washington-Baltimore play an almost hegemonic role in their region's economy (especially over Virginia, where NoVa really makes up a disproportionate bulk of economic output) since most of our federal dollars end up in their hands.
However, it is clear from all three analyses that the Northeast urban areas and Chicago generally form a bulk of the economy out of proportion to their population size, leaving many rural areas unemployed and destitute.
I was expecting more activity in this thread, but I guess not If anyone else is interested in the figures for certain areas, I can try to calculate it for you.
Last edited by Lifeshadower; 12-29-2009 at 02:44 AM..
Interesting thread. But as you demonstarted above, it gets kind of fuzzy when MSAs cross state lines. My MSA (Mpls/St. Paul/Boomington), includes a couple counties in WI. I think I'd have to break it down to the county level to get apples:apples. While we'd know what % of the population is in the WI counties, what share of the GMP would be attributed to the WI counties?
Interesting thread. But as you demonstarted above, it gets kind of fuzzy when MSAs cross state lines. My MSA (Mpls/St. Paul/Boomington), includes a couple counties in WI. I think I'd have to break it down to the county level to get apples:apples. While we'd know what % of the population is in the WI counties, what share of the GMP would be attributed to the WI counties?
I was thinking of that too, but the problem is that the Bureau of Economic Analysis or any other government institution except for the county itself produces any county-by-county GDP statistics. The best thing I could do is increase the sample size, since either way it will show if there is a disparity or not. However, usually when a MSA crosses county lines, it may also show commuting patterns only and not economic activity, which is why I threw out some counties that were extremely small (>2%) in population in terms of their % of the population within the state they reside in AND in terms of the % of population in the MSA/CSA they reside in (Pike County, Kenosha County, and Hampshire County)
Which brings us to another question; what's more important: metropolitan areas or states?
Fortunately, for the Twin Cities area, St. Croix and Pierce County, Wisconsin only make up only 102,155 people, making up less than 1% of both Wisconsin's population AND the Twin Cities area as a whole. Their effect on GMP and WI GSP would be minimal, at best.
Minneapolis-St.Paul-St.Cloud, MN-WI CSA (incl. Minneapolis and St.Cloud MSAs)
2008 Population (MN only): 3,460,129 (66.3% of Minnesota's population)
2008 GMP: $201,476,000,000 (79% of Minnesota's GSP)
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If anyone else is interested in the figures for certain areas, I can try to calculate it for you.
