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Old 02-12-2012, 09:40 AM
 
Location: College Point, Queens
539 posts, read 1,041,750 times
Reputation: 365
Very unlikley. Here's how it could happen:

1. Rapid economic improvement
2. Suppressed conservative turnout because of scandal or undesirable Republican nominee
3. Huge Black get-out-the vote effort, like North Carolina's in 2008 (Axelrod got 90 percent of NC's Blacks to the polls in 2008)
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Old 02-13-2012, 12:08 PM
 
Location: Atlanta, GA (Brookhaven)
1,122 posts, read 634,124 times
Reputation: 628
A lot of religious people seem to have missed this part of the Constitution.

Quote:
The Senators and Representatives before mentioned, and the Members of the several State Legislatures, and all executive and judicial Officers, both of the United States and of the several States, shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation, to support this Constitution; but no religious test shall ever be required as a qualification to any office or public trust under the United States.
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Old 02-13-2012, 01:45 PM
 
10,684 posts, read 6,341,693 times
Reputation: 5306
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lola Getz View Post
My comment comes from the perspective of a born-and-bred Georgian who has lived in England since the 1980s, but believe me, I do keep up with what's going on back home!

Anyway, my take on it is that the Republicans will probably once again take Georgia in 2012 because that's the way the state has been mostly trending for a good while. On the other hand, unlike some of you I'm not so sure that will be the case if Romney is the GOP candidate. Why? Because of the distrust that Georgia's fundamentalist Christians have of Mormonism. Using my own very Republican family as an example, my father and stepmother -- who both actually campaigned enthusiastically for George W. Bush in Oglethorpe County and in the Athens area -- would no more vote for a Mormon than they would flap their arms and think that would help them fly. My family is deeply religious and while they're active politically on a grassroots level and are staunch Republicans, when push comes to shove they'd worry that voting for a Mormon would put their immortal souls in peril. I'm not kidding about this either, and I know that "my people" are not unique in feeling this way. I do believe that if Romney is the GOP nominee, a lot of Christian voters will just sit the 2012 election out.

If either Gingrich or Santorum gets the nomination, they'll take Georgia easily, again because of the religion factor. Fundamentalist Christians are a massively powerful voting bloc, but I just don't think they're feeling the love for Mitt Romney. They're always going to put what they feel biblically way ahead of what they think politically.

It will be interesting to see how things play out, to say the least.
Trust me, their animosity towards Obama far outweighs any concerns they might have over Mormonism. The fundamentalist Christians will just hold their noses and pull the lever for Romney if he's the nominee. Their number one goal is to get Obama out of office and replace him with someone with an "R" behind their name. They'll deal with other tangential issues about the candidate later.
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Old 02-13-2012, 02:51 PM
 
Location: The South
767 posts, read 1,292,930 times
Reputation: 664
[quote=Mutiny77;22966448 number one goal is to get Obama out of office and replace him with someone with an "R" behind their name. [/QUOTE]

That someone doesn't even have to have an "R" behind their name."D" will also work.ABBO
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Old 02-13-2012, 03:03 PM
 
Location: North GA Mountains
430 posts, read 431,843 times
Reputation: 283
Default He will win Georgia

when Hell freezes over!
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Old 02-14-2012, 12:56 AM
 
Location: atlanta
2,544 posts, read 1,697,057 times
Reputation: 1357
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
He carried 47-48% of the vote in the 2008 election. Since the state is becoming ever more diverse, do you think Obama might actually win Georgia in 2012?
haha— no. 2008 was the best circumstance possible for obama to win and he still didn't win. 2012 is going to be a tough year for him. we're still 10-15 years away from becoming a "swing state".
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Old 02-14-2012, 12:57 AM
 
Location: atlanta
2,544 posts, read 1,697,057 times
Reputation: 1357
Quote:
Originally Posted by midgeorgiaman View Post
In one word...no. Yes, Obama had a strong showing in GA in 2008, but that was because there were large swaths of non-black urban residents who believed in his "change" (part), but many were basically irate after 8 years of GW. They aren't angry at GW anymore and "change" hasn't really been seen by most...so IMHO, Georgia will vote at least 60 percent Republican regardless of the nominee.
i don't think GA has voted 60% for *any* candidate in well over 20 years.
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Old 02-14-2012, 08:27 AM
 
Location: Marietta, GA
7,681 posts, read 9,713,116 times
Reputation: 3209
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wes927 View Post
Very unlikley. Here's how it could happen:

1. Rapid economic improvement
2. Suppressed conservative turnout because of scandal or undesirable Republican nominee
3. Huge Black get-out-the vote effort, like North Carolina's in 2008 (Axelrod got 90 percent of NC's Blacks to the polls in 2008)
While nothing is completely impossible in politics, I think you're ignoring the factors that I mentioned.

In 2008 (when Obama could not carry Georgia), you had a vigorous get out the vote campaign among minorities and the younger voting population, both of whom don't typically vote. In fact, so much so that the Senate campaign went into a runoff election. Without the push for Obama, many of those newly ignited voters stayed home on runoff day, and Martin lost by 15%. That same push is not evident in 2012.

Back in 2008, Obama had rhetoric of "hope and change" to combat what was some discontent with the war and George W. Bush. The economy was uncertain and that also added to the populist message for those who wanted "hope and change" to come. If you now fast forward to 2012, Georgia has been mired at right around 10% unemployment for about 3 years. "Hope and change" has become the reality of the current situation, with Obama having a record to run on that is a disconnect from what most Georgia voters want. Obama-care, promises of higher taxes, wasted and failed "stimulus" money, record deficits and debt all contribute to a record that is not what a majority of voters of this state want for our country.
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Old 02-14-2012, 12:46 PM
 
3,284 posts, read 2,983,415 times
Reputation: 1476
Quote:
ith Obama having a record to run on that is a disconnect from what most Georgia voters want. Obama-care, promises of higher taxes, wasted and failed "stimulus" money, record deficits and debt all contribute to a record that is not what a majority of voters of this state want for our country.
I corrected a similarly inaccurate comment earlier in this thread.
Since this comment exists, I will correct again:

Quote:
Obama-care, promises of higher taxes
Bob Dole-Willard Romney-Heritage Foundation Care aka Obamacare was excepted under earlier names. GA residents don't have an issue with it until AM radio tells them what to think.

Obama has lowered most Americans' tax burden, not raised it. Only those of the highest incomes which have used the system to pay less than middle and low incomes would see any change and that change is only to ensure that they pay as much as the rest of us, so let's stop the BS, this ain't the AM dial.


Quote:
wasted and failed "stimulus" money
The stimulus worked. That is not debatable. It's a fact. The only problem with it is that it wasn't big enough, but Obama compromised with Republicans who at the end, all voted against improving the economy and keeping police and teachers etc working. In fact, the GOP has obstructed at unprecedented level because their stated goal was for the economy to suffer so that Obama will lose, rather than see an improved economy for Americans. Without any other support, the stimulus money ran its course and despite many months of private sector job growth, local and state gov't keep shedding jobs.

Quote:
record deficits
Most of which he inherited. Naturally when you are in a historic economic mess (created by GOP deregulation) deficit spending becomes necessary. Most economists will confirm that during a recession is not the time to focus on deficits, but in fact to focus on spending to stimulate the economy, which in turn will improve and increase revenues... which lowers the deficit. But of course, a lot of the deficit was the wars and tax cuts for the top few %.

Once revenues are in check and the economy improved, the deficit will go down.

When Obama took office, we were losing 750,000 jobs a MONTH.

Think about that. Naturally, no president can do magic and change that over night. Now we are gaining well above 200,000 jobs per month and that's with gov't jobs decreasing.

So the GA conservative argument doesn't hold up at all regarding Obama's record and in fact demonstrates how much the conservative agenda over the past 30 years has failed.

Naturally, AM radio and Fox's infotainers have their own agenda not based on facts which GA residents largely agree with, so the Confederates will continue to vote the way they do.
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Old 02-14-2012, 03:01 PM
 
Location: College Point, Queens
539 posts, read 1,041,750 times
Reputation: 365
Quote:
Originally Posted by neil0311 View Post
While nothing is completely impossible in politics, I think you're ignoring the factors that I mentioned.

In 2008 (when Obama could not carry Georgia), you had a vigorous get out the vote campaign among minorities and the younger voting population, both of whom don't typically vote. In fact, so much so that the Senate campaign went into a runoff election. Without the push for Obama, many of those newly ignited voters stayed home on runoff day, and Martin lost by 15%. That same push is not evident in 2012.

Back in 2008, Obama had rhetoric of "hope and change" to combat what was some discontent with the war and George W. Bush. The economy was uncertain and that also added to the populist message for those who wanted "hope and change" to come. If you now fast forward to 2012, Georgia has been mired at right around 10% unemployment for about 3 years. "Hope and change" has become the reality of the current situation, with Obama having a record to run on that is a disconnect from what most Georgia voters want. Obama-care, promises of higher taxes, wasted and failed "stimulus" money, record deficits and debt all contribute to a record that is not what a majority of voters of this state want for our country.

Yes, but Obama-Alexrod didn't have a Black Get Out the Vote effort like NC, where they Got NINETY PERCENT of Blacks to the polls in '08. If Obama hit that 90 percent in Georgia--and the other 2 things I mentioned happened--he could get his miracle.
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