Will Obama Win Georgia? (resident, growth, time)

[Georgiafrog]

While I don't care for many of Obama's policies, the weakness of the Republican pool is pretty concerning. I think that if people did not always vote along party lines then Obama would have as much chance as anyone. I agree with the previous poster who stated that Georgia will become something of a swing state within the next few elections, but probably not yet.

I am sick of voting for the lesser of two evils. Here's to campaign finance reform!

[clancg2003]

Ok, I'm tired of all these biased answers, I'll admit everyone has their bias, but this is overwhelming. I'll go ahead and admit I'm a liberal, but unlike all the posts I've seen so far, I'll back my stuff up with numbers instead of just it won't happen or it will happen.

Could Obama win Georgia in 2012?
Short answer: Yes he could.


Will Obama win Georgia in 2012?
I'll be honest based on the attitudes I'm seeing, if the election were held today, he'd lose it by probably about 6% or so. However there is potential if the Democratic party of Georgia can stick to their guns and get everyone out to vote. There is also potential if the Democrats would change their damn attitudes and start acting like winners. All I ever here is that this state votes Republican regardless, and that is a losing attitude. Quit being defeated, and start getting involved. The numbers I've seen show that Georgia is a 'timid' Democratic state. This means that there is enough support here for a victory, but the organization is simply not enough and as a result, Georgia Democrats are severely under performing, as evidenced by the general attitude in this state. This cost them a victory in 2008, a massive sweep in 2010, and they will lose again in 2012 if they don't start to take a stand.


You have power than you think. The following is a small rough draft of an of a post that I am going to make on the Democratic Party of Georgia's Facebook page very soon.






So how could Obama win Georgia in 2012? Well before I answer this, let me provide some numbers. All of these are according to Gallup and are for 2011. I also omitted D.C. because technically it isn't a state, and we all know how it leans politically. And statistically speaking, there is very little evidence that these states will become competitive pending a miracle, despite the fact that some overly confident pundits predicted that they might: TX, SC, MT, WV, ME, ND, SD, WI, AZ

Obama approval

National: 44.4% approve 47.3% disapprove (Net: -2.9%)
Highest: Hawaii 56.1% approve 32.6% disapprove (Net: +23.5%)
Lowest: Utah 28.6% approve 62.8% disapprove (Net: -34.2%)

Georgia: 44.6% approve 47.8% disapprove (Net: -3.2%)

Virginia: 44.5% approve 49.0% disapprove (Net: -4.5%)
North Carolina: 43.7% approve 48.5% disapprove (Net: -4.8%)
New Mexico 41.7% approve 51.2% disapprove (Net: -9.5%)
New Hampshire 38.7% approve 54.4% disapprove (Net: -15.7%)
Indiana 40.1% approve 52.2% disapprove (Net: -12.1%)
Florida 43.6% approve 47.8% disapprove (Net: -4.2%)
Ohio 42.1% approve 50.2% disapprove (Net: -8.1%)
Nevada 41.3% approve 50.6% disapprove (Net: -9.3%)
Colorado 40.4% approve 52.2% disapprove (Net: -11.8%)
Missouri 38.6% approve 53.0% disapprove (Net: -14.4%)
Oregon 44.5% approve 47.1% disapprove (Net: -2.6)

Pennsylvania 45.0% approve 47.8% disapprove (Net -2.8%)
Iowa 45.6% approve 45.9% disapprove (Net -0.3%)
Michigan 48.1% approve 44.2% disapprove (Net +3.9%)

Interesting: Missisippi Approve: 42.0% Disapprove: 50.6% (Net -8.6%)

Take note of these things:

1) Obama's approval for 2011 is HIGHER in Georgia than the national average
2) Obama's disapproval for 2011 is HIGHER in Georgia than the national average
3) Obama's approval is HIGHER in Georgia than all the states on the list except Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Michigan.
4) Obama's disapproval is LOWER in Georgia than all the states listed except Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. His disapproval is tied with Florida and Pennsylvania.
5) Obama's net disapproval in Georgia is lower than all the states listed except Oregon, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Michigan
6) Obama's approval is underwater in every state listed, in fact his approval is underwater in all but about 10 states listed in Gallup.
7*) Mississippi is another state that is considered to be extremely conservative, yet Obama's approval is surprisingly high at 42%.


From these numbers it appears that Obama is in a fairly good position in Georgia despite being underwater. However, do not jump to conclusions just yet. There are more numbers to be crunched. Here is the Democratic/leans Democratic vs. Republican/leans Republican

National: 40% R, 43.7% D (Net: D + 3.7%)
Highest Republican/Lean: Utah 59.5% R, 25.6% D (Net: R +33.9%)
Highest Democrat/Lean: Hawaii 39.3% R, 45.9% D (Net: D +22.8%)

Georgia: 44% R, 40.6% D (Net: R + 3.6%)

Indiana: 44.2% R, 39% D (Net: R + 5.2%)
Missouri: 42.8% R, 40.5% D (Net: R + 2.3%)
New Hampshire: 44.2% R, 40.6% D (Net: R + 3.6%)

North Carolina: 42.1% R, 43% D (Net: D + 0.9%)
Florida: 40.4% R, 42.2% D (Net: D +1.8%)
Virginia: 41.4% R, 42.3% R (Net: R + 0.9%)
Colorado: 44.3% R, 41.3% D (Net: R + 3%)
Nevada: 41.3% R, 43% D (Net: D + 1.7%)
Ohio: 41.2% R, 42.5% D (Net: D + 1.3%)
New Mexico: 39.4% R, 44.9% D (Net: D + 5.5%)
Pennsylvania: 41.3% R, 46.1% D (Net: D + 4.8%)
Iowa: 39.6% R, 43.5% D (Net: D + 3.9%)

Mississippi: 46.4% R, 40.3% D (Net: R + 6.1%)


Take note of these things


1) In Georgia, the number of people who identify as Democrat is at a low 40.6%. However there is still more people who identify as Democrat than in Missouri, Indiana and there is a tie with New Hampshire.
2) There is more people who identify as Republican in Colorado than in Georgia (THIS should be VERY INTERESTING, join if you want to find out why .)
3) The net Republican amount is lower in Georgia than Indiana and is tied with New Hampshire.
4) Most states listed have a lower net difference than Georgia, have more people who identify as Democrat, and have less people who identify as Republican.


These numbers do not look as good, but there's hope and I'll explain why on the facebook page, so get involved already!


There are more detailed stats that I have crunched and they look fairly good for Democrats, but like I said, get involved if you want to see them. Perhaps I'll post them here if I see enough people joining and getting involved.


And of course numbers do not necessarily tell the whole story, check out this:


West Virginia: 39.3% R, 45.9% (Net: D + 6.6)
Kentucky: 41.1% R, 46.2% D (Net: D + 5.1)
Arkansas: 41.8% R, 41.6% D (Net: R + 0.2)


Anyways I'm going to cut my post off here and say this: The numbers indicate that there's lots more people who approve of Obama in Georgia than in most states (This was true in 2008,09,and 10), yet they are too afraid to go out and vote. They also indicate that the Democratic party of Georgia needs to convince these people that they CAN win if they work hard enough and organize. They are not in nearly as bad of a position as they think. Georgia COULD go blue in 2012 but this defeatist attitude must change. Fellow Democrats, let's get to work!


(Subscribe to The Democratic Party of Georgia on facebook for a more detailed look later.)

[atltechdude]

I can see Georgia becoming more of a swing state, but it's not that yet. The major cities are really the only areas where I think you would see a majority vote for Obama.

There is no way Obama will win it this year.

[Saintmarks]

If gas hits $5 a gallon this summer (which is repeatedly being said) this will tank any modest gains the economy has seen in the past few months. As has been said in previous elections "It's all about the economy" mindset will prevail and whoever has the (R) behind his name will take not only GA handily but many purple states will get redder, demographic shifts or not. AAs are suffering more than anyone in this economy and are not on the bandwagon en masse this time around.

[cope1989]

Originally Posted by Saintmarks

If gas hits $5 a gallon this summer (which is repeatedly being said) this will tank any modest gains the economy has seen in the past few months. As has been said in previous elections "It's all about the economy" mindset will prevail and whoever has the (R) behind his name will take not only GA handily but many purple states will get redder, demographic shifts or not. AAs are suffering more than anyone in this economy and are not on the bandwagon en masse this time around.

I'm not sure that high gas prices will hurt the economy as much as you say.

Will high oil prices hurt the recovery—or help it? - The Washington Post

And anyone who thinks that black people are going to be "so-so" about Obama in 2012 doesn't know the black community in America. You don't just turn on the first black president just like that. Most African Americans I've spoken to are like everyone else in that they feel like we're still struggling as a nation and Obama has had some setbacks, but if anything it seems to embolden then to support him and GOTV because they know he's going to need all the help he can get.

The Republican party has been trying for a long time to win a chunk of the black vote, instead of being relegated to 5-10 percent. I think a lot of repubs are really hoping that a disappointing first term for Obama will make a lot of blacks say "oh, I guess he wasn't as great as I thought" and they'll magically start shifting to the GOP. It doesn't work like that, especially with the long history of Republicans using dog whistle politics to get out the prejudiced white vote. In this campaign alone in the GOP primary, I've heard the terms welfare, food stamp president and racism, more than I'd care to admit.

It goes back to Nixon's southern strategy, then Reagan's creation of the evil Welfare Queen, who has the power to completely drain the Government's coffers with her lazy handout attitude. Then you have the Willie Horton ad, the creation of Lee Atwater, and finally the whisperings of Obama being a) muslim, b)not a citizen, c)a black radical, d)hitler, or e) all of the above.

African Americans see this, and they're not about to cozy up to the GOP after decades of many in the party undermining them. It's just wishful thinking of Republican operatives.

I'm sorry SaintMarks, I don't mean to direct all of this at you, I just got on a roll and..you know how it is.

[Saintmarks]

Originally Posted by cope1989

I'm not sure that high gas prices will hurt the economy as much as you say.

Will high oil prices hurt the recovery—or help it? - The Washington Post

And anyone who thinks that black people are going to be "so-so" about Obama in 2012 doesn't know the black community in America. You don't just turn on the first black president just like that. Most African Americans I've spoken to are like everyone else in that they feel like we're still struggling as a nation and Obama has had some setbacks, but if anything it seems to embolden then to support him and GOTV because they know he's going to need all the help he can get.

The Republican party has been trying for a long time to win a chunk of the black vote, instead of being relegated to 5-10 percent. I think a lot of repubs are really hoping that a disappointing first term for Obama will make a lot of blacks say "oh, I guess he wasn't as great as I thought" and they'll magically start shifting to the GOP. It doesn't work like that, especially with the long history of Republicans using dog whistle politics to get out the prejudiced white vote. In this campaign alone in the GOP primary, I've heard the terms welfare, food stamp president and racism, more than I'd care to admit.

It goes back to Nixon's southern strategy, then Reagan's creation of the evil Welfare Queen, who has the power to completely drain the Government's coffers with her lazy handout attitude. Then you have the Willie Horton ad, the creation of Lee Atwater, and finally the whisperings of Obama being a) muslim, b)not a citizen, c)a black radical, d)hitler, or e) all of the above.

African Americans see this, and they're not about to cozy up to the GOP after decades of many in the party undermining them. It's just wishful thinking of Republican operatives.

I'm sorry SaintMarks, I don't mean to direct all of this at you, I just got on a roll and..you know how it is.

I don't think this will make AAs in great droves vote GOP, but the marginal ones who aren't regular voters will be less inclined to vote, making the phenomenal AA turnout in 2008 hard to repeat. Without this core vote, Obama is vulnerable in many swing states. Don't see NC or VA going blue this time around. More blue collar swing states like Ohio and PA are in play too. Could be an electoral landside for the opposition.

$5 a gallon gas is a new painful threshold we have not seen, it will stall the economy as the price of EVERYTHING will go up, business will find it harder to make a profit, more layoffs, more job losses. My point: the economy will trump other issues, the party in power gets ousted in times like this no matter what the demographic makeup of a state or community. Like a previous poster said, national elections are swung by that 10% to 15% in the middle that don't have allegiances to one party or the other.

[neil0311]

Originally Posted by clancg2003

Ok, I'm tired of all these biased answers, I'll admit everyone has their bias, but this is overwhelming. I'll go ahead and admit I'm a liberal, but unlike all the posts I've seen so far, I'll back my stuff up with numbers instead of just it won't happen or it will happen.

Could Obama win Georgia in 2012?
Short answer: Yes he could.

I prefer to go with facts and reality, rather than my own opinion based view. My perception is that you're going with your own biases and wishful thinking.

Georgia doesn't register party affiliation the way many states do, so there is no way to count the "registered Republicans" against Democrats or Independents, but if you look at the voter preferences over the last 15 years, Republicans have been dominant and trending more and more in that direction. There is currently not a single statewide constitutional office held by a Democrat in this state.

Look at the statewide elections over the last 15 years. Again, look at Obama running in 2008. If with all the tailwinds he had, where he had no record to run on and only rhetoric, he couldn't win Georgia in 2008, he just plain has no realistic shot in 2012. George Bush is gone, "hope and change" is a fraud, and people see his real record.

I also think you will see other traditionally red states where Obama squeaked out wins in 2008 (like NC and VA) get past the hype that was 2008 and back to the reality that is 2012. Georgia never bought the hype to begin with.

[Mutiny77]

Originally Posted by neil0311

I also think you will see other traditionally red states where Obama squeaked out wins in 2008 (like NC and VA) get past the hype that was 2008 and back to the reality that is 2012. Georgia never bought the hype to begin with.

I actually think NC and VA going blue in 2008 was, in part, a result of demographic and cultural shifts in those states, namely NoVA in Virginia and Charlotte/the Triangle in NC. Like Georgia, both states have large Black populations, but unlike Georgia, they are more balanced in terms of the distribution of their major metros which tipped the scales for them. NC and VA have become newcomers to the swing states category, IMO.

[neil0311]

Originally Posted by Mutiny77

I actually think NC and VA going blue in 2008 was, in part, a result of demographic and cultural shifts in those states, namely NoVA in Virginia and Charlotte/the Triangle in NC. Like Georgia, both states have large Black populations, but unlike Georgia, they are more balanced in terms of the distribution of their major metros which tipped the scales for them. NC and VA have become newcomers to the swing states category, IMO.

North Carolina elected a Republican legislative majority in both houses for the first time since Reconstruction in 2010. Cultural shift? Doesn't jibe with the facts.

GOP takes the General Assembly - Elections - NewsObserver.com

[atltechdude]

Originally Posted by neil0311

I also think you will see other traditionally red states where Obama squeaked out wins in 2008 (like NC and VA) get past the hype that was 2008 and back to the reality that is 2012. Georgia never bought the hype to begin with.

True the hype will be gone. But if Santorum is the nominee, a lot of states are likely going to stay blue anyway.