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View Poll Results: Abrams or Kemp?
Abrams 88 61.97%
Kemp 54 38.03%
Voters: 142. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-02-2018, 11:38 AM
 
815 posts, read 701,545 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Otakumaster View Post
Any poll updates?

How is it looking?
https://politics.myajc.com/news/stat...nN0vltRCOduRI/

The last AJC poll had Abrams up by statistically insignificant hair. 46.9% to Kemp's 46.7 with a margin of error of 3%.

However, the really good news for Abrams is that this poll assumes that white voters will make up 63.5% of the vote. Current early voter numbers have whites making up barely 58% of the vote. Also good is that Abrams is polling at 27% among whites. She only needs 25% to win without a runoff.
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Old 11-02-2018, 11:44 AM
 
4,120 posts, read 6,575,727 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Otakumaster View Post
Any poll updates?

How is it looking?

If your Abrams your very happy with the raw numbers from early voting...

Based upon the most recent AJC poll & using the voting data breakdown by race.

Total early votes are 1,830,076....

Per the poll whites are breaking 67-27 for Kemp & Blacks 90-4 for Abrams. All numbers are rounded.

1,060,591 whites have voted early which would give Kemp 710k votes & Abrams 287k.

548,450 Blacks have voted early which would give Kemp 22k votes & Abrams 494k.

This would give Abrams roughly a 49k vote lead just based upon these two demographics.

There would still be 220k votes under Hispanic/Asian/other or about 13% of the vote.
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Old 11-02-2018, 11:53 AM
 
72 posts, read 69,848 times
Reputation: 150
I am going to go out on a limb and make some bold predictions based on my assessment of the data and some assumptions based on polls and previous elections. See the screenshot below of my estimated breakdown of the early vote which will likely end at 2M at the end of today with another roughly 1.5M to 2.2M to vote on Election Day (Yes, presidential turnout levels). I predict that Abrams will win without a runoff and GA-6 and GA-7 will flip from Republican to Democratic if turnout on Election Day is largely similar to already casted votes.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/7...922/7UFjRm.png

If these numbers bear out, Georgia will make national news for such a seismic and dramatic political reversal. Headlines will be "Stacey Abrams becomes first black woman to govern a US state" and "Lucy McBath becomes first black woman to represent Georgia in Congress".

On a personal note, I am an avid supporter of Abrams, so I may be a bit biased and optimistic about her chances. LOL. I waited 5 hours for tickets to the Obama/Abrams rally tonight and sadly got none, but there is A LOT of energy on the Democratic side based on anecdotal evidence. I believe Abrams strong GOTV efforts across all 159 counties is pulling Georgia into battleground territory sooner than many predicted.

Last edited by n3w5_junk13; 11-02-2018 at 12:10 PM.. Reason: Addition
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Old 11-02-2018, 12:06 PM
 
4,120 posts, read 6,575,727 times
Reputation: 2289
Quote:
Originally Posted by n3w5_junk13 View Post
I am going to go out on a limb and make some bold predictions based on my assessment of the data and some assumptions based on polls and previous elections. See the screenshot below of my estimated breakdown of the early vote which will likely end at 2M at the end of today with another roughly 1.5M to 2.2M to vote on Election Day (Yes, presidential turnout levels). I predict that Abrams will win without a runoff and GA-6 and GA-7 will flip from Republican to Democratic if turnout on Election Day is largely similar to already casted votes.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/7...922/7UFjRm.png

If these numbers bear out, Georgia will make national news for such a seismic and dramatic political reversal. Headlines will be "Stacey Abrams becomes first black woman to govern a US state" and "Lucy McBath becomes first black woman to represent Georgia in Congress".
better than my estimates above... I salute you.

This may be why Kemp has taken such a hard turn to the right in order to turn out his base.


The down ballot chaos will be also be very interesting as a lot of local races will be upsets also. In my area Buddy Carter may be nervous as Chatham county has a very large African American community.
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Old 11-02-2018, 12:43 PM
 
815 posts, read 701,545 times
Reputation: 1301
Quote:
Originally Posted by n3w5_junk13 View Post
I am going to go out on a limb and make some bold predictions based on my assessment of the data and some assumptions based on polls and previous elections. See the screenshot below of my estimated breakdown of the early vote which will likely end at 2M at the end of today with another roughly 1.5M to 2.2M to vote on Election Day (Yes, presidential turnout levels). I predict that Abrams will win without a runoff and GA-6 and GA-7 will flip from Republican to Democratic if turnout on Election Day is largely similar to already casted votes.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/7...922/7UFjRm.png

If these numbers bear out, Georgia will make national news for such a seismic and dramatic political reversal. Headlines will be "Stacey Abrams becomes first black woman to govern a US state" and "Lucy McBath becomes first black woman to represent Georgia in Congress".

On a personal note, I am an avid supporter of Abrams, so I may be a bit biased and optimistic about her chances. LOL. I waited 5 hours for tickets to the Obama/Abrams rally tonight and sadly got none, but there is A LOT of energy on the Democratic side based on anecdotal evidence. I believe Abrams strong GOTV efforts across all 159 counties is pulling Georgia into battleground territory sooner than many predicted.
I'm right there with you. The only reason I don't come out and say it is because like you, I am also an Abrams supporter.

Sorry you didn't score the tix for tonight. I had thought about trying to get some but I kinda knew I wouldn't have had a chance.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bellhead View Post
better than my estimates above... I salute you.

This may be why Kemp has taken such a hard turn to the right in order to turn out his base.


The down ballot chaos will be also be very interesting as a lot of local races will be upsets also. In my area Buddy Carter may be nervous as Chatham county has a very large African American community.

Yes, that is exactly why Kemp has gone hard right and why he's campaigning with Trump. He had been trying hard to play to center but now he realizes it's a battle of the bases.

I think down ballot will be really interesting. In the primaries, there was a steeper drop off among Republicans but back then Republicans had not been as energized as Democrats.
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Old 11-02-2018, 03:00 PM
 
Location: Ono Island, Orange Beach, AL
10,733 posts, read 13,273,321 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMO45 View Post
All those 40 plus voters though seems ominous for Democrats. It’s hard to believe many of those 1.2 mill or so over 50 are voting democrat
Oh, some of us old geezers can be pretty darn progressive.
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Old 11-02-2018, 04:08 PM
 
10,333 posts, read 11,328,356 times
Reputation: 7694
Georgia political website GeorgiaPol.com put a post up at 4:34pm on Friday reporting that Georgia Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Ted Metz put up a post on his Facebook page on Friday afternoon offering to drop out of the gubernatorial race in exchange for payment of his medical bills.

Quote:
A post on the Facebook page of Ted Metz, libertarian candidate for Georgia governor, appeared late Friday offering to drop out of the closely-contested race in exchange for payment of his medical bills.
"Libertarian Candidate for Governor Appears to Offer to Drop Out for Medical Bill Payments" (GeorgiaPol.com)
https://www.georgiapol.com/2018/11/0...lw7NGF0gA9TlO8
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Old 11-02-2018, 04:30 PM
 
815 posts, read 701,545 times
Reputation: 1301
Quote:
Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll View Post
Georgia political website GeorgiaPol.com put a post up at 4:34pm on Friday reporting that Georgia Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Ted Metz put up a post on his Facebook page on Friday afternoon offering to drop out of the gubernatorial race in exchange for payment of his medical bills.



"Libertarian Candidate for Governor Appears to Offer to Drop Out for Medical Bill Payments" (GeorgiaPol.com)
https://www.georgiapol.com/2018/11/0...lw7NGF0gA9TlO8
LOL. This is one of the weirdest stunts I’ve seen a politician pull. I kind of see the point he’s trying to make, I think, but still...

I really would like to see more third party candidates to give voters more choice but this guy is getting on my last nerve.
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Old 11-02-2018, 04:42 PM
 
Location: Ono Island, Orange Beach, AL
10,733 posts, read 13,273,321 times
Reputation: 7158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll View Post
Georgia political website GeorgiaPol.com put a post up at 4:34pm on Friday reporting that Georgia Libertarian gubernatorial candidate Ted Metz put up a post on his Facebook page on Friday afternoon offering to drop out of the gubernatorial race in exchange for payment of his medical bills.



"Libertarian Candidate for Governor Appears to Offer to Drop Out for Medical Bill Payments" (GeorgiaPol.com)
https://www.georgiapol.com/2018/11/0...lw7NGF0gA9TlO8
Do what?????????????????
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Old 11-02-2018, 05:32 PM
 
Location: St Simons Island, GA
23,319 posts, read 43,781,735 times
Reputation: 16453
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnsleyPark View Post
Oh, some of us old geezers can be pretty darn progressive.
No kidding. Yet we still have to endure the over-the-top ageism displayed on this forum on a weekly basis.
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