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View Poll Results: Abrams or Kemp?
Abrams 88 61.97%
Kemp 54 38.03%
Voters: 142. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-05-2018, 08:40 AM
 
10,331 posts, read 11,316,903 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JayHey View Post
That is quite the outlier from other very recent polls. I wonder if tralfagar's other recent polls have deviated so far from the average.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll View Post
The results of new polls for other closely watched high-profile races with national implications that Trafalgar has released seem to all be consistent with other recent polls that Trafalgar and other polling organizations have done.

So this poll very well could be an outlier from other polling that has been done that has consistently showed this race as a near-statistical tie.

On the other hand, this poll potentially also could indicate that the race has broken decisively in favor of the Republican candidate as has often been the case during the past 3 gubernatorial election cycles that the GOP has dominated Georgia politics.

It's just that this poll potentially could be reflecting much later in this election cycle the typical break towards the GOP that has previously happened earlier in the previous 3 gubernatorial election cycles of GOP dominance.

Although, a sudden 12-point GOP lead this late in an election cycle where the polls have consistently shown a statistical tie since polling on this race began does seem like a lot for a state where the GOP only won the 2014 gubernatorial race by 8 points and the 2016 presidential race by 5 points.
The margins of gubernatorial and presidential races in Georgia since 2006 when the GOP had their largest margin-of-victory since taking control of Georgia state government back in 2002 has looked something like this:

2006: R+20 (GOP gubernatorial victory: Perdue wins re-election 58-38 over Taylor)
2008: R+5 (GOP presidential victory: McCain wins GA 52-47 over Obama)
2010: R+10 (GOP gubernatorial victory: Deal wins 53-43 over Barnes)
2012: R+8 (GOP presidential victory: Romney wins GA 53-45 over Obama)
2014: R+8 (GOP gubernatorial victory: Deal wins re-election 53-45 over Carter)
2016: R+5 (GOP presidential victory: Trump wins GA 50-45 over Clinton)

Even with minimal spending and organization by the Democrats, the GOP margin-of-victory in gubernatorial and presidential races appears to have been steadily trending downward since maxing out at 20 points in the gubernatorial race in 2006.

With demographics growing more favorable towards a Democratic Party that has been raising and spending more on organization since bottoming out at near-zero available funds in early 2013, and in what has been a competitive environment all year, a sudden 12-point GOP polling margin seems like a lot.
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Old 11-05-2018, 08:45 AM
 
815 posts, read 700,833 times
Reputation: 1301
Um, no....

That Trafalgar poll...
...has Abrams getting only 17.5% of the white vote with only 0.5 leaning
her way
...has Abrams getting only 67.5% of the black vote with another 9.9 leaning
her way
...has Kemp getting 71.5% of all people who identified as "Other".

Do we seriously believe 25% of blacks are voting for Kemp after Oprah and Obama were *just* here campaigning?

These poll results are kind of like the first pancake you throw on the griddle. I can never figure out exactly why it doesn't turn out right, but still I toss it out and start over again.
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Old 11-05-2018, 08:49 AM
 
3,067 posts, read 1,274,191 times
Reputation: 1747
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01 View Post
Um, no....

That Trafalgar poll...
...has Abrams getting only 17.5% of the white vote with only 0.5 leaning
her way
...has Abrams getting only 67.5% of the black vote with another 9.9 leaning
her way
...has Kemp getting 71.5% of all people who identified as "Other".

Do we seriously believe 25% of blacks are voting for Kemp after Oprah and Obama were *just* here campaigning?

These poll results are kind of like the first pancake you throw on the griddle. I can never figure out exactly why it doesn't turn out right, but still I toss it out and start over again.
More blacks will vote for Kemp than you think. It won’t be 25% but it may be 12-15 which is high considering historical numbers.
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Old 11-05-2018, 08:56 AM
 
815 posts, read 700,833 times
Reputation: 1301
Oh, yeah, and this poll has Kemp winning women by higher margins than he's winning among men. about 56 for Kemp versus 38% for Abrams.

Honestly, this poll seems to be what would happen if you had someone trying to figure out what kind of support Kemp would need among the various demographics to pull off a win given the early vote results.
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Old 11-05-2018, 08:59 AM
 
815 posts, read 700,833 times
Reputation: 1301
Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMO45 View Post
More blacks will vote for Kemp than you think. It won’t be 25% but it may be 12-15 which is high considering historical numbers.
15% is pushing it but would at least be in the realm of reason and sanity. But 25%???? Come on....
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Old 11-05-2018, 09:08 AM
 
815 posts, read 700,833 times
Reputation: 1301
Quote:
Originally Posted by citidata18 View Post
The Trafalgar Group was founded and is led by notorious GOP Consultant Robert Cahaly, who frequently makes rounds only on Fox News and other far-right media outlets. He was also arrested and sued for making illegal robocalls during the 2010 midterm elections in South Carolina.

GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls"
Now it all makes sense...
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Old 11-05-2018, 09:36 AM
 
Location: Ono Island, Orange Beach, AL
10,730 posts, read 13,265,218 times
Reputation: 7150
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01 View Post
Now it all makes sense...
Yup. You would think this guy would be sounding alarm bells to get the GOP folks out to vote rather than implying that the GOP is way ahead thus leading to voter apathy.

Last edited by AnsleyPark; 11-05-2018 at 10:16 AM..
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Old 11-05-2018, 09:54 AM
 
3,067 posts, read 1,274,191 times
Reputation: 1747
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnsleyPark View Post
Yup. You would this guy would be sounding alarm bells to get the GOP folks out to vote rather than implying that the GOP is way ahead thus leading to voter apathy.
I’m not sure polls have any sort of overwhelming impact on people voting or not. In general it’s probably more educated folks who look at polls and they probably aren’t going to be fooled one way or another by them.
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Old 11-05-2018, 10:17 AM
 
Location: Ono Island, Orange Beach, AL
10,730 posts, read 13,265,218 times
Reputation: 7150
Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMO45 View Post
I’m not sure polls have any sort of overwhelming impact on people voting or not. In general it’s probably more educated folks who look at polls and they probably aren’t going to be fooled one way or another by them.
Good point!
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Old 11-05-2018, 10:37 AM
 
10,331 posts, read 11,316,903 times
Reputation: 7684
Quote:
Originally Posted by citidata18 View Post
The Trafalgar Group was founded and is led by notorious GOP Consultant Robert Cahaly, who frequently makes rounds only on Fox News and other far-right media outlets. He was also arrested and sued for making illegal robocalls during the 2010 midterm elections in South Carolina.

GOP consultant arrested for illegal "robocalls"
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01 View Post
Now it all makes sense...
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnsleyPark View Post
Yup. You would think this guy would be sounding alarm bells to get the GOP folks out to vote rather than implying that the GOP is way ahead thus leading to voter apathy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMO45 View Post
I’m not sure polls have any sort of overwhelming impact on people voting or not. In general it’s probably more educated folks who look at polls and they probably aren’t going to be fooled one way or another by them.
A lot conservatives and people on the right who saw the results of the poll seemed to be very skeptical that the race suddenly had broken Kemp's way after months of polling indicating that the race was at a statistical tie and after the early polling numbers appeared to be very favorable for Abrams and the Democrats.

Also, the results of this poll are inconsistent with all of the other polls that Trafalgar had done on other high-profile races around the country.

This poll looks like it is some sort of really strange outlier from almost all other polls, including Trafalgar's own other polls.
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