Gubernatorial Race 2018 (Atlanta, Evans: bankruptcy, income tax, beach)

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

The Cook Political Report has just downgraded the GOP's chances in the GA Governor's race to "Lean Republican" with Kemp's victory, and notes there is "great potential for the contest to land in Toss Up."

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analys...ublican-column

Abrams has the money advantage: "As of June 30, she had raised $6 million for the cycle and had $1.5 million in the bank. By contrast, Kemp has raised $5.1 million for the cycle and had a cash-on-hand total of $442,000 as of July 18."

Most of Abrams money will be from outside the state. She will run into the same issues with that that Jon Ossoff did. I expect this to be a closely contested race. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[oobanks]

Originally Posted by CaliDreaming01

The Cook Political Report has just downgraded the GOP's chances in the GA Governor's race to "Lean Republican" with Kemp's victory, and notes there is "great potential for the contest to land in Toss Up."

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analys...ublican-column

Abrams has the money advantage: "As of June 30, she had raised $6 million for the cycle and had $1.5 million in the bank. By contrast, Kemp has raised $5.1 million for the cycle and had a cash-on-hand total of $442,000 as of July 18."

Hope she starts to put that Money to work! What I'm not understanding is why hasn't she starting campaigning as of yet. She has had a head start even before she knew who her contender would be, she had the head start advantage against the entire republican establishment in Georgia and didn't use it. I haven't seen many of her campaign ads at all... Make no mistake about it, she's going to have to fight hard to win this in Georgia, it's not going to be a Cake walk as many may seem to believe! Republicans run this state big time

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Most of Abrams money will be from outside the state. She will run into the same issues with that that Jon Ossoff did. I expect this to be a closely contested race. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Both candidates will have all the money they need. I'm pretty sure Abrams' base doesn't care where her money comes from. Not sure about GOP voters thoughts on the issue.

I think this will be a totally different race than Ossoff's for three reasons. 1) Ossoff was a centrist and Abrams is a progressive. 2) Ossoff used most of his cash for TV campaign ads, while Abrams is using most of her for voter registration and get out the vote efforts. 3) Ossoff was counting on moderate GOP women to put him over the top. Abrams is counting on minority voters.

I do think it will be interesting. No Democrat has ever used this strategy in a statewide election.

[n3w5_junk13]

Originally Posted by oobanks

Hope she starts to put that Money to work! What I'm not understanding is why hasn't she starting campaigning as of yet. She has had a head start even before she knew who her contender would be, she had the head start advantage against the entire republican establishment in Georgia and didn't use it. I haven't seen many of her campaign ads at all... Make no mistake about it, she's going to have to fight hard to win this in Georgia, it's not going to be a Cake walk as many may seem to believe! Republicans run this state big time

She has started to campaign. She was just in my neighborhood, West End, meeting folks and telling her story. I specifically asked her the question of how she will win where other candidates like Nunn and Carter failed. She had what I thought was a very thoughtful answer to the question. She spoke about her focus on GOTV efforts rather than relying as heavily on campaign ads as former Democratic nominees in specific numeric terms. We can expect to see campaign ads from her, but she will invest a lot more into face-to-face contacts, as she says that they have proven to be more of an effective investment.

[n3w5_junk13]

Originally Posted by n3w5_junk13

She has started to campaign. She was just in my neighborhood, West End, meeting folks and telling her story. I specifically asked her the question of how she will win where other candidates like Nunn and Carter failed. She had what I thought was a very thoughtful answer to the question. She spoke about her focus on GOTV efforts rather than relying as heavily on campaign ads as former Democratic nominees in specific numeric terms. We can expect to see campaign ads from her, but she will invest a lot more into face-to-face contacts, as she says that they have proven to be more of an effective investment.

And I'd like to add, based on the jump in turnout numbers we saw in the primary, I have a hunch that she is right.

[JPD]

Originally Posted by oobanks

Hope she starts to put that Money to work! What I'm not understanding is why hasn't she starting campaigning as of yet. She has had a head start even before she knew who her contender would be, she had the head start advantage against the entire republican establishment in Georgia and didn't use it. I haven't seen many of her campaign ads at all... Make no mistake about it, she's going to have to fight hard to win this in Georgia, it's not going to be a Cake walk as many may seem to believe! Republicans run this state big time

It's the norm not to spend money on TV while a runoff is underway. Why spend money on TV ads when you can let the candidates in the runoff tear each other apart and do your work for you? Now that the runoff is over, it's time to buy TV ads. It's unfortunate that Cagle basically didn't even mount a campaign against Kemp. He left Abrams with virtually no ammo to pick up and run with.

[oobanks]

Originally Posted by n3w5_junk13

She has started to campaign. She was just in my neighborhood, West End, meeting folks and telling her story. I specifically asked her the question of how she will win where other candidates like Nunn and Carter failed. She had what I thought was a very thoughtful answer to the question. She spoke about her focus on GOTV efforts rather than relying as heavily on campaign ads as former Democratic nominees in specific numeric terms. We can expect to see campaign ads from her, but she will invest a lot more into face-to-face contacts, as she says that they have proven to be more of an effective investment.

That's all good an well, but truth be told, she has to go out to the Sticks, not to mention Appeal to Women voters Big Time! Every body isn't going to vote for her but if she has a strategy she can win this... It's no need to campaign in the West End really, she already has that vote for the most part, just get them to the polls. She needs to turn those that may be sitting on the sideline republicans or that are disappointed in some of Trump decisions!

[oobanks]

Originally Posted by JPD

It's the norm not to spend money on TV while a runoff is underway. Why spend money on TV ads when you can let the candidates in the runoff tear each other apart and do your work for you? Now that the runoff is over, it's time to buy TV ads. It's unfortunate that Cagle basically didn't even mount a campaign against Kemp. He left Abrams with virtually no ammo to pick up and run with.

Guess you have a point!

[n3w5_junk13]

Originally Posted by oobanks

That's all good an well, but truth be told, she has to go out to the Sticks, not to mention Appeal to Women voters Big Time! Every body isn't going to vote for her but if she has a strategy she can win this... It's no need to campaign in the West End really, she already has that vote for the most part, just get them to the polls. She needs to turn those that may be sitting on the sideline republicans or that are disappointed in some of Trump decisions!

I'd encourage you to follow her on Twitter and Instagram. You'd see that not only has she visited West End, but has traversed all over the state from Appalachia to the agricultural southeast portion of the state to the coastal plains. I specifically mentioned my community as an area she has campaigned as one example.

[CaliDreaming01]

Originally Posted by BELMO45

I have some concern that the lessons the GOP got in Bama, Virginia, and PA in the special elections due to people sitting home will end up helping them in November. The Democrats didn’t have that advantage in 1994 or 2010 or 2014. This is really the first example we’ve seen where a party has had warning shots fired over the course of two years leading up to a mid term election. Also the GOP tends to never do as poorly in any mid term contests with their party in the White House as the Democratic Party usually does. They lose seats and also often lose some Gubernatorial contests but it’s usuallt not a blood bath as it frequently seems to be on the other side

If they have learned lessons, they didn't show it in the primary runoff. Turnout was down among Republicans compared to the last GOP primary runoff in 2014. The 2014 primary runoff wasn't nowhere near as nasty as the 2018, so I think turnout will remain depressed for Republicans. How much? No telling!

Originally Posted by oobanks

Hope she starts to put that Money to work! What I'm not understanding is why hasn't she starting campaigning as of yet. She has had a head start even before she knew who her contender would be, she had the head start advantage against the entire republican establishment in Georgia and didn't use it. I haven't seen many of her campaign ads at all... Make no mistake about it, she's going to have to fight hard to win this in Georgia, it's not going to be a Cake walk as many may seem to believe! Republicans run this state big time

Yes, remember, Abrams is spending her money courting her base. These are people of color and white Millennials. These are not the people who are going to be reached through TV ads. Kemp will spend money on ads because his base--older white Republicans--are the ones who are best targeted that way. There is no point for Abrams to spend her money a lot of money on ads because the people she'd reach will never vote for her.

So just because you don't see any ads doesn't mean Abrams isn't campaigning. She is just going after those folks who no one usually bothers with. Those are the folks who are being bombarded with texts, knocks on doors, telephone calls, etc. You can see evidence of this in the primary election results. Abrams outperformed her primary numbers by 20 points.

Originally Posted by n3w5_junk13

She has started to campaign. She was just in my neighborhood, West End, meeting folks and telling her story. I specifically asked her the question of how she will win where other candidates like Nunn and Carter failed. She had what I thought was a very thoughtful answer to the question. She spoke about her focus on GOTV efforts rather than relying as heavily on campaign ads as former Democratic nominees in specific numeric terms. We can expect to see campaign ads from her, but she will invest a lot more into face-to-face contacts, as she says that they have proven to be more of an effective investment.

Wow very interesting. I think it's important for her to convince Democratic voters that she can win this thing. I hear she is a very charismatic in person. Door-to-door is probably very effective for her.