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Old 04-19-2021, 11:03 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
7,517 posts, read 9,858,726 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArmyBrat619 View Post
No trends point to Augusta eclipsing 1million. In fact if you look at the census trends of the core county (Richmond) of the Augusta MSA, the population has remained pretty much the same for the past 25 years hovering around 200,000k. Columbia County is seeing some real growth but the MSA has a long way to go before even coming close to 1 million. Augusta is not the next Raleigh or Greenville despite how some desperately wish it was
You're right that it is no Greeneville or Raleigh, but those are areas that are at that point now or larger in the case Raleigh.

There is some truth to what you say. In 2019 the Augusta metro area is estimated at 608k people. If that is accurate and it maintains current growth rate, compared to the 2010 census, it will hit 1 million people in just under 50 years.

Now the growth rate between 2000 and 2010, when the economy was better and we weren't dealing with the Great Recession fall out for longer periods of time, the growth rate was a bit higher.

If the growth rate picks up up with the improving economy, they could achieve it in a little over 40 years. We will have more data to look at when the 2020 census results comes out.

My guess is we are looking at 2065-2070, unless something tips the scales to higher or slower growth (ie. private cyber security industry incubates in Augusta, health-science industry growth, base reduction, etc...).

Still, I think Augusta is the next region in Georgia to hit 1 million when it does happen and 25% of that will be in South Carolina.
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Old 04-19-2021, 11:40 PM
 
170 posts, read 129,547 times
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Every time one of these comes up it’s hilarious to watch people look for little things to attack other second tier communities. Each of Georgia’s second tier cities have unique things happening that are moving them forward. I did notice a lot of talk of MSA vs CSA population here. I reside in Columbus but drive across this state weekly. Something I have not seen mentioned is the fact that Auburn(Lee County) may lose its MSA status along with 144 other cities nationwide due to not having a population over 100,000. Not to say that would result in Lee County becoming part of Columbus’ MSA but it’s a possibility. There is a strong interaction between Columbus and Lee County primarily in southern areas of the county like Smiths, Salem, and Lake Harding but even some interaction exists between Opelika-Auburn and Columbus. It will be interesting to see what develops with this. Also remember Columbus’ MSA added two counties in 2018 so there are signs of some increased regional interaction there. I was in Savannah two weeks ago and as always the cities charm stands out and puts it in a category all its own. I was looking at the growth and development in Pooler and strongly impressed. Haven’t been to Augusta in a few months but I feel the city has benefited greatly from its university and medical sector also it’s proximity between Atlanta and Columbia on I-20 set the city up for greater growth. I cannot forget Macon, I see a lot of positives with the city the growth along the northern parts of the city are impressive especially along Riverside Drive. It was concerning driving through Macon’s west side area of Eisenhower Pkwy and Macon Mall area. The growth has left many vacant store fronts in that area while other areas of the city boom. The growth in nearby Warner Robins has been impressive and I feel will help the Macon region excel even more in the future. Macon also has a hidden gem like Columbus it is becoming a hub for movies. These two cities still fall behind Atlanta and Savannah, but are gaining popularity for films and movies. As long as this industry continues to grow in Georgia I think Macon and Columbus may have a few things up their sleeves.
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Old 04-20-2021, 01:23 AM
 
Location: Atlanta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Columbus1999 View Post
I did notice a lot of talk of MSA vs CSA population here. I reside in Columbus but drive across this state weekly. Something I have not seen mentioned is the fact that Auburn(Lee County) may lose its MSA status along with 144 other cities nationwide due to not having a population over 100,000. Not to say that would result in Lee County becoming part of Columbus’ MSA but it’s a possibility. There is a strong interaction between Columbus and Lee County primarily in southern areas of the county like Smiths, Salem, and Lake Harding but even some interaction exists between Opelika-Auburn and Columbus.
The proposed recommended change on the definition of an MSA has no impact on whether Lee County would be included with the Columbus MSA or not if it isn't included in the larger neighboring MSA.

Basically, the commuting threshold it must hit to do that would've included Lee County in the Columbus MSA either way. The definition that adds the county to the larger MSA isn't dependent on the definition of whether Lee County could be its own MSA or not.

If the rule change does go through, Lee County will still be labeled a Micropolitan area and the micropolitan area would still be included with the Columbus CSA in the sameway the metropolitan area would.

The 100,000 population threshold is not for the core city, it is for the urban area. In 2010 the Auburn urban area held 74k people, mostly in Auburn and Opelika's city limits. Those two cities have brown collectively 17k people between 2010 and 2019. While I don't think the UA will make the 100,000 threshold, it is possible. It should be around 90,000 people, but depending how the new residents grew into the area causing the urban area boundaries to shift it could cause some existing residents that were outside the UA before to be included in the UA post-2020 census.

Per 2010 data Lee County has 15% of its commuters commuting into the core counties of the Columbus MSA. They have to hit a threshold of 25% for inclusion to the Columbus MSA (refer to post #44 in this thread).


While it is on my list of things to watch, I wouldn't get too hopeful. That would be a big change and data shows the cities of Auburn and Opelika, further north away from Columbus are causing much of Lee County's growth too. It probably would counteract some of the growth in Columbus commuters from Smith's Station over the last 10 years. For every new Columbus commuter you get, you have more new commuters further north staying in Lee County.

I'd mark this as possible, but not likely. A contender in 2030 and 2040... I suspect Lee County will be listed as a Micropolitan area if the new rules go through, but in 2030 the Auburn Urban Area could easily grow past 100,000. This won't be released until 2023.
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Old 04-20-2021, 07:39 PM
 
37,231 posts, read 37,969,814 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cwkimbro View Post
You're right that it is no Greeneville or Raleigh, but those are areas that are at that point now or larger in the case Raleigh.

There is some truth to what you say. In 2019 the Augusta metro area is estimated at 608k people. If that is accurate and it maintains current growth rate, compared to the 2010 census, it will hit 1 million people in just under 50 years.

Now the growth rate between 2000 and 2010, when the economy was better and we weren't dealing with the Great Recession fall out for longer periods of time, the growth rate was a bit higher.

If the growth rate picks up up with the improving economy, they could achieve it in a little over 40 years. We will have more data to look at when the 2020 census results comes out.

My guess is we are looking at 2065-2070, unless something tips the scales to higher or slower growth (ie. private cyber security industry incubates in Augusta, health-science industry growth, base reduction, etc...).

Still, I think Augusta is the next region in Georgia to hit 1 million when it does happen and 25% of that will be in South Carolina.
It also doesn't seem likely that any counties will be added to the Augusta MSA anytime soon either. The most likely candidates on the SC side would probably be Barnwell and McCormick counties, but they have quite small populations, a little over 30K combined, and wouldn't do much at all to get the metro to the 1M mark any quicker.
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Old 04-20-2021, 08:32 PM
 
43 posts, read 62,856 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cwkimbro View Post
The proposed recommended change on the definition of an MSA has no impact on whether Lee County would be included with the Columbus MSA or not if it isn't included in the larger neighboring MSA.

Basically, the commuting threshold it must hit to do that would've included Lee County in the Columbus MSA either way. The definition that adds the county to the larger MSA isn't dependent on the definition of whether Lee County could be its own MSA or not.

If the rule change does go through, Lee County will still be labeled a Micropolitan area and the micropolitan area would still be included with the Columbus CSA in the sameway the metropolitan area would.

The 100,000 population threshold is not for the core city, it is for the urban area. In 2010 the Auburn urban area held 74k people, mostly in Auburn and Opelika's city limits. Those two cities have brown collectively 17k people between 2010 and 2019. While I don't think the UA will make the 100,000 threshold, it is possible. It should be around 90,000 people, but depending how the new residents grew into the area causing the urban area boundaries to shift it could cause some existing residents that were outside the UA before to be included in the UA post-2020 census.

Per 2010 data Lee County has 15% of its commuters commuting into the core counties of the Columbus MSA. They have to hit a threshold of 25% for inclusion to the Columbus MSA (refer to post #44 in this thread).


While it is on my list of things to watch, I wouldn't get too hopeful. That would be a big change and data shows the cities of Auburn and Opelika, further north away from Columbus are causing much of Lee County's growth too. It probably would counteract some of the growth in Columbus commuters from Smith's Station over the last 10 years. For every new Columbus commuter you get, you have more new commuters further north staying in Lee County.

I'd mark this as possible, but not likely. A contender in 2030 and 2040... I suspect Lee County will be listed as a Micropolitan area if the new rules go through, but in 2030 the Auburn Urban Area could easily grow past 100,000. This won't be released until 2023.
Curious as to the numbers commuting from Columbus up to the I-85 auto industry corridor from Auburn to West Point and those employed by the University. I wouldn't be surprised that there is chance it's a wash with the Auburn to Columbus commuters. Auburn seems pretty self contained IMO - other than game days.

The other thing is Lee County is a bigger county than most any in Georgia - Georgia counties are small. That distance supports the two different areas - the Columbus area(Smiths Station) and Auburn-Opelika and keeps them apart mostly.
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Old 04-20-2021, 08:35 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
7,517 posts, read 9,858,726 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
It also doesn't seem likely that any counties will be added to the Augusta MSA anytime soon either. The most likely candidates on the SC side would probably be Barnwell and McCormick counties, but they have quite small populations, a little over 30K combined, and wouldn't do much at all to get the metro to the 1M mark any quicker.
Good point.

My money is on McCormick County in 2030-40.

The Extent of growth of Columbia County is at the county line at the river, they have a bridge across the river, they have river front and lake front properties, and most importantly... such a small population it won't take much growth in the east end of the county to have 25% of their commuters going into Columbia County in the future.

3,000-4,000 eastern exurban residents would do it.

But that is only +9k if it is added without future growth jumping out of Columbia County.
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Old 04-20-2021, 09:03 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
7,517 posts, read 9,858,726 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoPioneers View Post
Curious as to the numbers commuting from Columbus up to the I-85 auto industry corridor from Auburn to West Point and those employed by the University. I wouldn't be surprised that there is chance it's a wash with the Auburn to Columbus commuters. Auburn seems pretty self contained IMO - other than game days.

The other thing is Lee County is a bigger county than most any in Georgia - Georgia counties are small. That distance supports the two different areas - the Columbus area(Smiths Station) and Auburn-Opelika and keeps them apart mostly.
I don't have the 2010 numbers for that and would have to pull them back up and research it.

I find it unlikely for a couple reasons. The operational definition for MSA inclusion would work against it. The commuter flows is in the wrong direction.

The MSA definition examines the number of commuters from the outlying county to the core counties of the larger MSA online. (outflow must be 25% of commuters)

The CSA definition looks at both inflow and outflow of commuters added together of the outlying county/statistical area. (inflow and outflow added together must add up to 15%)

The CSA definition assumes they are two separate economic centers with commuters between them, whereas the MSA definition assumes there is one dominant economic center drawing in a large amount of commuters into a central region.

In this case it is the large Kia plant employing thousands that is causing people to drive to outlying county from populated places, not people from the outlying county with the factory going to the core of neighboring statistical areas.

My guess is there is likely commuter flows to justify placing Lagrange into a CSA with Auburn and Columbus, except there is one big barrier to that, Atlanta and the Southwestern suburbs. LaGrange is already in the Atlanta CSA.

There are likely some commuters from LaGrange into Newnan, Peachtree City, Fairburn, and possibly the Airport area. At the same time there are going to be some people working at Kia and living in Coweta/Newnan.

So in 2023 when the 2020 core statistical definitions are releasted, what we would need to watch for is if LaGrange is ever shifted into the Columbus CSA if increase commuting patterns to Auburn and Columbus overtake the Atlanta area.
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Old 04-20-2021, 09:44 PM
 
43 posts, read 62,856 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cwkimbro View Post
I don't have the 2010 numbers for that and would have to pull them back up and research it.

I find it unlikely for a couple reasons. The operational definition for MSA inclusion would work against it. The commuter flows is in the wrong direction.

The MSA definition examines the number of commuters from the outlying county to the core counties of the larger MSA online. (outflow must be 25% of commuters)

The CSA definition looks at both inflow and outflow of commuters added together of the outlying county/statistical area. (inflow and outflow added together must add up to 15%)

The CSA definition assumes they are two separate economic centers with commuters between them, whereas the MSA definition assumes there is one dominant economic center drawing in a large amount of commuters into a central region.

In this case it is the large Kia plant employing thousands that is causing people to drive to outlying county from populated places, not people from the outlying county with the factory going to the core of neighboring statistical areas.

My guess is there is likely commuter flows to justify placing Lagrange into a CSA with Auburn and Columbus, except there is one big barrier to that, Atlanta and the Southwestern suburbs. LaGrange is already in the Atlanta CSA.

There are likely some commuters from LaGrange into Newnan, Peachtree City, Fairburn, and possibly the Airport area. At the same time there are going to be some people working at Kia and living in Coweta/Newnan.

So in 2023 when the 2020 core statistical definitions are releasted, what we would need to watch for is if LaGrange is ever shifted into the Columbus CSA if increase commuting patterns to Auburn and Columbus overtake the Atlanta area.

Not so much interested in the CSA designation - I'm just thinking a lot of people commute from the Columbus area to the jobs at AU and along I-85 and all the car factories than go from Auburn into Columbus.

In my opinion LaGrange and Auburn are really distinct entities from Columbus - I never feel like they belong together.
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Old 04-20-2021, 11:10 PM
 
Location: Atlanta
7,517 posts, read 9,858,726 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoPioneers View Post
Not so much interested in the CSA designation - I'm just thinking a lot of people commute from the Columbus area to the jobs at AU and along I-85 and all the car factories than go from Auburn into Columbus.

In my opinion LaGrange and Auburn are really distinct entities from Columbus - I never feel like they belong together.
Yea MSA ain't gonna happen.

The catch with Lee County and Columbus is all about census metro statistical areas delineating by county. I agree Auburn is distinct from from Columbus, but so is Smiths Station. Smiths Station is functionally a suburb of Columbus, but they are drawn into the same county borders as Auburn and the analysis happens at the county level.


Here is some raw data to analyze for LaGrange, from the Census ACS 2011-2015 commuter flows....

It seems like the economic pull is definitely from Atlanta. It narrowly is in the Atlanta CSA.


Commuters from Lee County, AL (total commuters 67,937):

Chambers Co, AL: 1467
Troup Co, GA: 1069
LaGrange Total: 2536 (3.7%)

Lee Co, AL: 45,450 (66.9%)

(others included in previous post in thread)


Commuters to Lee County, AL (Total commuters 56,537):

Chambers Co, AL: 3146
Troup Co, GA: 371
LaGrange Total: 3517 (6.2%)

Lee Co, AL: 45450 (80.3%)

(Other counties included in previous post in thread)


Commuters to Troup County (Total Commuters 37,070):

Troup Co: 22499
Chambers Co, AL: 3677
LaGrange Total: 26176 (70.6%)

Coweta Co: 1694
Clayton Co: 88
Fayette Co: 185
Dekalb Co: 129
Fulton Co: 371
Gwinnett Co: 280
Cobb Co: 44
Carroll Co: 233
Atlanta other: 54
Meriwether Co: 1264
Atlanta Total: 4342 (11.7%)

Meriwether Co: 1264 (In Atlanta MSA; Not a core county)

Muscogee Co: 1023
Harris Co: 1240
Columbus Total: 2263 (6.1%)

Lee Co, AL: 1069 (2.9%)


Commuters From Troup County (Total Commuters 27,776):

Troup County 22499
Chambers Co, AL 688
Total LaGrange: 23187 (83.5%)

Coweta Co: 973
Clayton Co: 118
Fayette Co: 148
Dekalb Co: 25
Fulton Co: 652
Gwinnett Co: 45
Cobb Co: 124
Carroll Co: 139
Atlanta other: 81
Atlanta Total: 2305 (8.3%)

Meriwether Co: 398 (In Atlanta MSA, but not a core county)

Muscogee Co: 475
Harris Co: 453
Columbus Total: 928 (3.3%)

Lee Co, AL: 371 (1.3%)


CSA for Atlanta: 8.3%+11.7% = 20% Pass

CSA for Auburn: 1.3%+2.9% = 4.2% Fail

CSA for Columbus: 3.3%+6.1% = 9.4% Fail

CSA for LaGrange from Auburn: 6.2%+3.7%= 9.9% Fail (Needs 15%)

MSA for Any: Fail

Honestly, with these numbers you're not even going to get LaGrange into CSA status with Auburn or Columbus (assuming Atlanta wasn't involved). I don't see 5-9 years of growth changing that gap.
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Old 04-21-2021, 08:16 AM
 
43 posts, read 62,856 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cwkimbro View Post
Yea MSA ain't gonna happen.

The catch with Lee County and Columbus is all about census metro statistical areas delineating by county. I agree Auburn is distinct from from Columbus, but so is Smiths Station. Smiths Station is functionally a suburb of Columbus, but they are drawn into the same county borders as Auburn and the analysis happens at the county level.


Here is some raw data to analyze for LaGrange, from the Census ACS 2011-2015 commuter flows....

It seems like the economic pull is definitely from Atlanta. It narrowly is in the Atlanta CSA.


Commuters from Lee County, AL (total commuters 67,937):

Chambers Co, AL: 1467
Troup Co, GA: 1069
LaGrange Total: 2536 (3.7%)

Lee Co, AL: 45,450 (66.9%)

(others included in previous post in thread)


Commuters to Lee County, AL (Total commuters 56,537):

Chambers Co, AL: 3146
Troup Co, GA: 371
LaGrange Total: 3517 (6.2%)

Lee Co, AL: 45450 (80.3%)

(Other counties included in previous post in thread)


Commuters to Troup County (Total Commuters 37,070):

Troup Co: 22499
Chambers Co, AL: 3677
LaGrange Total: 26176 (70.6%)

Coweta Co: 1694
Clayton Co: 88
Fayette Co: 185
Dekalb Co: 129
Fulton Co: 371
Gwinnett Co: 280
Cobb Co: 44
Carroll Co: 233
Atlanta other: 54
Meriwether Co: 1264
Atlanta Total: 4342 (11.7%)

Meriwether Co: 1264 (In Atlanta MSA; Not a core county)

Muscogee Co: 1023
Harris Co: 1240
Columbus Total: 2263 (6.1%)

Lee Co, AL: 1069 (2.9%)


Commuters From Troup County (Total Commuters 27,776):

Troup County 22499
Chambers Co, AL 688
Total LaGrange: 23187 (83.5%)

Coweta Co: 973
Clayton Co: 118
Fayette Co: 148
Dekalb Co: 25
Fulton Co: 652
Gwinnett Co: 45
Cobb Co: 124
Carroll Co: 139
Atlanta other: 81
Atlanta Total: 2305 (8.3%)

Meriwether Co: 398 (In Atlanta MSA, but not a core county)

Muscogee Co: 475
Harris Co: 453
Columbus Total: 928 (3.3%)

Lee Co, AL: 371 (1.3%)


CSA for Atlanta: 8.3%+11.7% = 20% Pass

CSA for Auburn: 1.3%+2.9% = 4.2% Fail

CSA for Columbus: 3.3%+6.1% = 9.4% Fail

CSA for LaGrange from Auburn: 6.2%+3.7%= 9.9% Fail (Needs 15%)

MSA for Any: Fail

Honestly, with these numbers you're not even going to get LaGrange into CSA status with Auburn or Columbus (assuming Atlanta wasn't involved). I don't see 5-9 years of growth changing that gap.
In reality those most all the jobs in Harris County that people commute to are in West Point right by the KIA plant off 103 and 18 - not in Columbus. They shouldn't count in "Columbus" commuters.
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