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Old 09-26-2018, 01:48 PM
 
Location: Floyd Co, VA
3,413 posts, read 5,105,046 times
Reputation: 7213

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Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketSci View Post
Apparently many posters thought it would never happen, but are we already there? A few things have changed since the thread started:

- the boomers are dying or retiring
- wages have barely budged but are increasing
- the immigrant labor pool (legal and illegal) has been constrained
- the US birthrate has fallen every year since 2010
- unemployment rate is at the lowest level since 1969

I guess the question is what now?
I don't know but one thing that can not be imported from China or anywhere else for that matter is elder care. With boomers now ranging in age from 72 down to 54 there will be an increasing need for care as that cohort ages but lives longer than prior generations. I don't know, in general, what the wage outlook is for this type of work but in my rural area it's generally no more than $10.00 an hour for a home health aide where some assistance is needed but not a great deal of skilled nursing duties.
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Old 09-26-2018, 03:19 PM
 
Location: Fort Payne Alabama
1,184 posts, read 1,569,752 times
Reputation: 2269
Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketSci View Post
Today new graduates may exceed retirees, but by 2020 the trend will be reversed. Boomers will all leave the labor force eventually (one way or another).

Also, regarding labor shortages, here is a recent article which states that there currently is a skilled labor shortage in the US:

Skilled labor shortage is hurdle for manufacturers | Rochester Business Journal New York business news and information



Welder: Starting wage $12/hr or $24k/year
Electrician: Starting wage $14/hr or $29k/year
Carpenter: Starting wage $12/hr or $24k/year
At these wages for a skilled trade, no wonder there is a labor shortage.
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Old 09-27-2018, 08:30 AM
 
Location: Mars City
5,091 posts, read 2,104,984 times
Reputation: 7497
That's less than 2 years away. No issue whatsoever.

Calm down Chicken Littles.
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Old 10-01-2018, 09:54 AM
 
2,110 posts, read 3,844,346 times
Reputation: 2584
Quote:
Originally Posted by Memphis1979 View Post
Things have dumbed down so much that you don't need skilled workers.

Even electrical work has become "Red wire into red port, blue wire into blue port, turn breaker on" It requires no real thinking.
I wonder what people think i do.

Just push a few buttons on the keyboard and you have a program!
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Old 10-04-2018, 12:40 PM
 
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, originally from SF Bay Area
29,500 posts, read 54,038,247 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreggT View Post
At these wages for a skilled trade, no wonder there is a labor shortage.
That data is from 2010, before the end of the recession when unemployment was still high. Pay in those jobs has gone up a lot since then with the demand. Even fast food is starting at $15 now here, and skilled labor is paying double those 2011 figures.



I am seeing a lot of retirements lately in our professional positions, but most seem to be waiting until age 70-72. I suspect that much of the reason is the high cost of medicare supplemental/advantage plans compared to employer provided premiums. The greatest number of boomer births was was 1957-61. I would expect the peak shortage to be delayed by a few years, maybe 2027 when those start to turn 70.
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