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Old 07-31-2011, 12:57 PM
 
1,039 posts, read 1,050,781 times
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Beginning this year, the first of the 75 million Baby Boomers have begun retiring. It has been predicted by many that starting around 2020 there will be a labor shortage in the US as retirements exceed the addition of new labor into the economy.

Preparing for a Future Labor Shortage - Graziadio Business Review | Graziadio Business Review | Graziadio School of Business and Management | Pepperdine University

U.S. Labor Shortage (http://www.advance-now.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=136&I temid=168 - broken link)

- does the loss of jobs in the current economy mean that fewer workers will be required in 2020 than earlier predicted?
- will a shortage, if it occurs, be only a short-term issues or have longer lasting effects?
- how much of an effect will immigration (legal and illegal) have in increasing, or reducing the labor supply?
- will Boomers not retire as early as other generations, and will this dull the possibility of labor shortages?
- if the health care reform package passed last year survives, will this lessen the need for Boomers to continue working, thus worsen the labor shortage?
- if the health care reform plan is rescinded, will this drive more people into the labor pool to cover the increasing health needs of the old Boomer generation?

Discuss.
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Old 07-31-2011, 02:14 PM
 
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I don't have a crystal ball........but I do know that every product I pick up in any store is made in China....back in the day you could go get a decent job in a MFG plant.....the Baby Boomers which is me still work.....they have to....immigration....the farmers need those folks.....you won't find any American who will work in the fields.....the health care situation....who knows what that brings....anywho.....those are my thoughts....
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Old 07-31-2011, 02:16 PM
 
11,894 posts, read 14,359,727 times
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It sounds optimistic. Yes some Boomers will retire but the crop of young ones graduating exceeds that number. And the Boomers may not retire soon enough to create the necessary openings. Then again I could be wrong. I hope so. Except in specialized areas there is no labor shortage.
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Old 07-31-2011, 03:59 PM
 
1,039 posts, read 1,050,781 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pvande55 View Post
It sounds optimistic. Yes some Boomers will retire but the crop of young ones graduating exceeds that number. And the Boomers may not retire soon enough to create the necessary openings. Then again I could be wrong. I hope so. Except in specialized areas there is no labor shortage.
Today new graduates may exceed retirees, but by 2020 the trend will be reversed. Boomers will all leave the labor force eventually (one way or another).

Also, regarding labor shortages, here is a recent article which states that there currently is a skilled labor shortage in the US:

Skilled labor shortage is hurdle for manufacturers | Rochester Business Journal New York business news and information

Quote:
The 2010 Manpower Talent Shortage Survey revealed that among the most difficult U.S. jobs to fill today are those in the skilled trades, including welders, electricians, carpenters/joiners and related occupations.
Welder: Starting wage $12/hr or $24k/year
Electrician: Starting wage $14/hr or $29k/year
Carpenter: Starting wage $12/hr or $24k/year
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Old 07-31-2011, 05:38 PM
 
Location: Kansas
19,189 posts, read 14,062,995 times
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The starting pay for those Manpower positions seems really low so maybe that is causing the difficulty. As they cut the welfare benefits especially if they drug testing everyone on welfare and people run out of unemployment, that should fill the gap. We have a lot of people avoiding work.
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Old 07-31-2011, 05:42 PM
 
Location: Sango, TN
24,889 posts, read 20,307,565 times
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With an unemployment rate of really 12% or higher, we are going to have a labor shortage?

Makes no sense.
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Old 07-31-2011, 07:07 PM
 
48,519 posts, read 81,013,914 times
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What I thnik we will see comig out of thsi recession and employer increases i healthcare cost is more automation and more repalcing humans with comuters and eqauipment to do labor. That is the only way companies in this country can compete in many areas now days. The shortage is likely to be in very technical fields as it is more and more presently .Unskilled labor force growth is like to continue to be in service area and retail :IMO.
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Old 08-02-2011, 12:20 PM
 
31,385 posts, read 31,051,757 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texdav View Post
That is the only way companies in this country can compete in many areas now days.
It isn't the only way, it is the preferred way.
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Old 08-03-2011, 05:45 PM
 
Location: Lincoln County Road or Armageddon
4,204 posts, read 5,471,444 times
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Being a member of a "skilled trade"(Industrial Electrician) for the last thirty years, I wouldn't recommend it to someone looking for a career. IF there is a looming shortage of skilled workers (I think there is) and employers want to continue to get first rate talent, then employers need to get rid of the mind set that blue collar workers are just disposable commodities-to be used and then abandoned. Loyalty is a two way street. Where I work, I've been told by the HR department that they're quite worried (she actually said they were scared) about loosing skilled trade employees-they aren't particularly impressed with newly hired. The HR officer I talked to said supervisors, directors, asst. directors and the like are a dime a dozen, but talented, experienced skilled trade workers are getting rarer and rarer. I'm in my mid fifties (as are most of my co-workers) and we'll all be retired within five years-this isn't a job you can continue to do forever, it's heavy, hot and dangerous.
That being said,even with the acknowledgement that replacing the skilled workers will be daunting, we're still treated like second rate citizens by management. IF American business is serious about keeping a skilled workforce, they need to forget some of the lessons they were taught while pursuing their MBAs and start treating talented employees with respect. There's a load of difference between what I do and what someone installing light switches does. Or they can continue on their current path and take their chances.
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Old 08-03-2011, 06:00 PM
 
Location: Sango, TN
24,889 posts, read 20,307,565 times
Reputation: 8606
Quote:
Originally Posted by vaughanwilliams View Post
Being a member of a "skilled trade"(Industrial Electrician) for the last thirty years, I wouldn't recommend it to someone looking for a career. IF there is a looming shortage of skilled workers (I think there is) and employers want to continue to get first rate talent, then employers need to get rid of the mind set that blue collar workers are just disposable commodities-to be used and then abandoned. Loyalty is a two way street. Where I work, I've been told by the HR department that they're quite worried (she actually said they were scared) about loosing skilled trade employees-they aren't particularly impressed with newly hired. The HR officer I talked to said supervisors, directors, asst. directors and the like are a dime a dozen, but talented, experienced skilled trade workers are getting rarer and rarer. I'm in my mid fifties (as are most of my co-workers) and we'll all be retired within five years-this isn't a job you can continue to do forever, it's heavy, hot and dangerous.
That being said,even with the acknowledgement that replacing the skilled workers will be daunting, we're still treated like second rate citizens by management. IF American business is serious about keeping a skilled workforce, they need to forget some of the lessons they were taught while pursuing their MBAs and start treating talented employees with respect. There's a load of difference between what I do and what someone installing light switches does. Or they can continue on their current path and take their chances.
Things have dumbed down so much that you don't need skilled workers.

Even electrical work has become "Red wire into red port, blue wire into blue port, turn breaker on" It requires no real thinking.
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