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Old 05-08-2014, 08:27 PM
 
2,485 posts, read 1,769,223 times
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Prediction:
Future immigration into the United States will be primarily low income, low skill level immigrants. Highly skilled immigrants may come to our tech centers but many of their jobs will be overseas. Rich people will want to immigrate to the west, but high taxation will discourage them.

emigration out of the United States will accelerate. Foreign skilled labor will find more opportunities in emerging economies like China, India, and Brazil. Americans will also go overseas to find opportunities. Asian Americans in particular are well prepared to start a career in Asia.

China has the largest consumer market and soon the largest middle class. That's where things will be happening. It would make sense to design, make, and sell things all there.

The less buying power Americans have and the less Americans buy, then the less leverage Americans will have in the world. With the sharp increase of poverty, the United States will not be able to keep its promises. The decline of the American global system is inevitable. Welcome to the new third world. Learn Mandarin Chinese. Find international opportunities.
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Old 05-08-2014, 09:25 PM
 
Location: TOVCCA
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No American is going to move to any foreign country that doesn't have free speech, sexual liberty, the right to own firearms, an open system of law and court proceedings, or gender equality for women. This is not happening in Asia.
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Old 05-08-2014, 09:50 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nightlysparrow View Post
No American is going to move to any foreign country that doesn't have free speech, sexual liberty, the right to own firearms, an open system of law and court proceedings, or gender equality for women. This is not happening in Asia.
No one is saying that Americans have to. It's people's own choices. But economic opportunities are not the same thing as free speech. Economics is economics. I think Asian Americans have a better prospect because of their connections with Asia and language advantages. Language itself would prevent most Americans from going to Asia.

But the stuff you mention should also be taken with a grain of salt. Free speech is under attack by both the left and the right. The court system has loads of problems and this country doesn't have a clean record of that. Increasingly, Americans are becoming ugly in fighting one another. When things go worse,there is no guarantee that this country will remain calm, or that the courts will be just, etc. all that is dependent somewhat on the moods of the public. When the public is angry, there will be no shortage of tears and crimes.
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Old 05-09-2014, 07:33 AM
 
Location: Whereever we have our RV parked
8,092 posts, read 7,096,342 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nightlysparrow View Post
No American is going to move to any foreign country that doesn't have free speech, sexual liberty, the right to own firearms, an open system of law and court proceedings, or gender equality for women. This is not happening in Asia.
I'm sorry, but you're just totally in error. Just because you value these things, doesn't mean everyone does. Eg: Lots of American citizens have gone to Australia and Mexico, both with far more restrictive gun rights. More Americans are leaving every year and the numbers giving up their citizenship are higher than ever. The OP's observations are right on target. We are headed in exactly the direction he suggests, a shrinking middle class, and a booming lower class, all fueled by our generous social welfare system and open immigration policies.

Last edited by Oldhag1; 05-09-2014 at 10:00 AM.. Reason: Fixed formatting
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Old 05-09-2014, 01:36 PM
 
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OP, this has already been the case over the past decade. My sister finished her masters (worked for a bit) and moved to Europe. I am in the process of doing the same.

USA future looks very bleak. We have already witnessed the social collapse and next is economical.
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Old 05-09-2014, 03:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goodbye_hello View Post
OP, this has already been the case over the past decade. My sister finished her masters (worked for a bit) and moved to Europe. I am in the process of doing the same.

USA future looks very bleak. We have already witnessed the social collapse and next is economical.
Elaborate on the "social collapse". We are in an economic decline. It's been declining for decades.

I saw reports that say that Chinese immigrants are less interested in coming to the United States. A lot of high skill immigrants also can't find satisfactory work like the way they could before.
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Old 05-09-2014, 07:30 PM
 
204 posts, read 245,327 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Costaexpress View Post
Elaborate on the "social collapse". We are in an economic decline. It's been declining for decades.

I saw reports that say that Chinese immigrants are less interested in coming to the United States. A lot of high skill immigrants also can't find satisfactory work like the way they could before.
USA is the globes capital for decadence. Kerry openly stated to a group of German students last year "Americans have the right to be stupid". The young generation doesn't believe or stand for anything.
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Old 05-09-2014, 09:58 PM
 
Location: TOVCCA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Costaexpress View Post
I saw reports that say that Chinese immigrants are less interested in coming to the United States. A lot of high skill immigrants also can't find satisfactory work like the way they could before.
You keep pushing for China. Civil rights or economics aside, they can't even breathe the air in Bejing now. Even "highly skilled" people need oxygen, and want their children to grow up without serious lung damage.

Not to mention, a forum discussion like this one would probably be "restricted." Serious business people need to know they have fair legal recourse in the courts, don't have to pay bribes to get things done (an even bigger issue in Latin America) and can use an open Internet.
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Old 05-09-2014, 11:27 PM
 
271 posts, read 294,385 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Costaexpress View Post
Prediction:
Future immigration into the United States will be primarily low income, low skill level immigrants. Highly skilled immigrants may come to our tech centers but many of their jobs will be overseas. Rich people will want to immigrate to the west, but high taxation will discourage them.

emigration out of the United States will accelerate. Foreign skilled labor will find more opportunities in emerging economies like China, India, and Brazil. Americans will also go overseas to find opportunities. Asian Americans in particular are well prepared to start a career in Asia.

China has the largest consumer market and soon the largest middle class. That's where things will be happening. It would make sense to design, make, and sell things all there.

The less buying power Americans have and the less Americans buy, then the less leverage Americans will have in the world. With the sharp increase of poverty, the United States will not be able to keep its promises. The decline of the American global system is inevitable. Welcome to the new third world. Learn Mandarin Chinese. Find international opportunities.
United States will actually become something similar to Brazil in the future so I do not think Americans need to move. When it comes to China, Brazil and India these countries are still third world countries. China is doing some great social progress but there is a very long way until they will reach something similar to a Western standard.

USA has according to IMF a GDP (nominal) per capita set at 53,101 US dollar. USA rank top ten in the world behind a few European countries, Qatar, Macau, Australia (Western) and Singapore. China has a GDP per capita set at 6,747 US dollar. The difference between China and USA is enormous. China is actually has just a slightly higher GDP per capita than Peru, South Africa and Iraq. Brazil is better off but the HDI-index is just extreme. India has a GDP of 1,504 just slightly higher than Laos, Yemen and Pakistan. It is one of the poorest nations on earth. India, China and Brazil have of course a high GDP but that is because of their extra-ordinary large population. China is moving fast right now. They have an extremely rapid economic growth. It is 5-10 percent a year. In 2014 their economic growth has just been 7.4 percent which is the lowest in 12 years.

File:China india gdp.jpg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

As you can see in the chart above India cannot compete with China. India has an educated upper middle class and a very rich elite but most of the people are very poor and see little net-gain. Just as Brazil their HDI index is just way off. In China things are different. China has an literacy rate of 95,1 percent comparing to 74,4 percent in India.

China will have larger GDP (nominal) than United States by 2020 or latest at 2030 and only when we measure them equally with the same inflation and Real GDP growth. Currently (2012) – China has about half of the US GDP but an growth of 5-6 percent it will just take a few years more until that is difference is covered.

Chinese and American GDP forecasts: Catching the eagle | The Economist

The New super-power will be China with a GDP at least one times the GDP of the USA within twenty years. But what does that mean for China? Well, they would have a GDP per capita in the size of Poland or maybe Russia. The economical quality of life in China would be considered to be much lower than in United States even when China becomes the next super-power within twenty-thirty years.

If Americans thing they will be welcome to China they will be all wrong. The Chinese do not want some massive white immigration to China. China is an ethno-nationalist country were Han-Chinese is on top and below them the ethnic minorities in China, which are of course racially very similar to the Han-Chinese with just a few exception. What will be interesting is when China starts to flex their muscles. They are already doing a great deal to improve their navy. They are building four aircraft carriers and planning at least 5+ of them. They will have fifth generation fighters produced and designed by the Chinese.

So – now when we know that China will be a first world nation within at least 50 years and the USA will be something similar to Brazil or Mexico. I wonder – what will become with Americans?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nightlysparrow View Post
You keep pushing for China. Civil rights or economics aside, they can't even breathe the air in Bejing now. Even "highly skilled" people need oxygen, and want their children to grow up without serious lung damage.

Not to mention, a forum discussion like this one would probably be "restricted." Serious business people need to know they have fair legal recourse in the courts, don't have to pay bribes to get things done (an even bigger issue in Latin America) and can use an open Internet.
Corruption in China is high but it is going down rapidly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bribe_Payers_Index

Hong Kong (part of China) has actually lower corruption than United States. Hong Kong is in part with Belgium ranked at 15 in the world. China ranks at place 80 in the world in the corruption index. They have lower corruption than Greece, Russia and just slightly lower than Bulgaria.

http://www.transparency.org/cpi2013/results

When people earn more money in China the corruption will go down.

Last edited by Sconesforme; 05-09-2014 at 11:37 PM..
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Old 05-10-2014, 12:07 AM
 
2,485 posts, read 1,769,223 times
Reputation: 2140
Quote:
Originally Posted by goodbye_hello View Post
OP, this has already been the case over the past decade. My sister finished her masters (worked for a bit) and moved to Europe. I am in the process of doing the same.

USA future looks very bleak. We have already witnessed the social collapse and next is economical.
There are several other trends possible. 25 to 35 years from today. Young people will want to drastically reduce older people's pensions. There is simply not enough money to pay this nation's bills. The nation will be deeply divided. People who have means will increasingly live in gated communities or essentially gated ones.

Most baby boomers have passed away and not much of their money is left behind. The service sector will face an enormous problem of low demand and consumption once boomers are gone.
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