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The big demographic story in the US has been the stagnation of the non-Hispanic white population and the growth of everybody else (particularly Asians and Hispanics).
Historically, the US has been defined as a black/white nation with a strict legal and informal racial segregation. This is somewhat of an oversimplification, as the notion of white is somewhat of an modern construction. Historically, northern European protestants (WASPS) were the dominate social force, with immigrants from Southern/Eastern European Catholics/Jews forming a broad underclass. They were never treated as poorly as AAs, But, were viewed as outsiders or even different races from the WASP settlers.
Overtime, immigration was restricted/assimilation encouraged/forced and all the European groups melded together and just became "white." Today it is really hard to argue there is much discrimination against Italians or Poles. Blacks however, remained a distinct social underclass. Subject to all sorts of racism/forced segregation.
Since the late '60s, the country's demographic mix began to change again with large scale immigration from Asia and particularly Latin America.
Now, we are at a point, where social scientists/journalists/etc focus on 4 main groups: whites, Hispanics, blacks, and Asians.
How do you thing our demographic future will evolve:
1) Multi-racial- the US basically becomes a nation of 4 main distinct ethnic groups. These divisions will become entrenched overtime. Given racial differences, Asians and (many) Hispanics will not assimilate the way Italians or Irish did a century ago. Rather, they will be more like AAs and feel common racial/ethnicity identity, distinct from white Americans. Physical difference will always be too big to bridge.
2) Post-racial- Asian and Hispanics will be less defined by immigration and assimilate into the dominate culture. Asians and Hispanics may serve as a gateway to help bridge the historical Black/White divide. Race/ethnicity will lose its saliency overtime. Social class will become more important than race.
3) White/non-white schism- Whites will remain the dominant social group. Asians, Hispanics, and African-Americans will be "persons of color" and feel a common kinship. White vs. minority will be the major social divide.
4) Black/non-black schism- Much as what happened during the last major immigration wave, Asians and Hispanics will assimilate into the dominate culture. Being Mexican or Chinese will be like being Italian or Irish American today, a heritage, but not a distinct sociological ethnicity. Asians and Hispanics will be so tightly integrated with non-Hispanic whites, that any physical racial differences will seem trivial. African-Americans, however, given the legacy of slavery,jim crow, and racism will remain in some sense a distinct racial group. Deep concentrations of poverty and negative racial serotypes will foster a strong common "black identify" and keep them a little more distinctive than other racial groups.
As a biracial person, I sincerely hope that both white and black Americans can get over their racial hangups and insecurities.
And Asians already assimilate for the most part. They, along with African immigrants, understand that assimilation does not mean forgetting your native tongue or culture or where you come from.
And considering relations between Asians, Latinos/Hispanics and blacks aren't too great themselves, I don't exactly see 3 or 4 happening.
And also taking into consideration that both whites AND blacks have this unhealthy and unnatural obsession with race and playing victim (both like to pretend they're oppressed victims of the world), I'm not sure that 2 will ever happen.
The former because their illegal status makes it dangerous for them to assimilate, since they can be deported at any time.
The latter for historical reasons. I'll change my mind once people start calling Barack Obama white, since he is technically as White as he is Black.
Do you think the children of illegal immigrants from Mexico and Central America will not assimilate while the children of those here legally will?
I sometimes wonder if white looking Hispanics will by the 3rd generation just be seen as white people. Seems silly to consider Cameron Diaz or Charlie Sheen as "minorities". While maybe mestizos will be seen as racial minorities?
Since the whole brown mestizo Hispanic vs. white mediterranean Hispanic is more of a spectrum than a hard difference, I wonder if the rise of the multi-racial Hispanic population will just convince people of the whole futility of trying to classify people by "race" based on physical characteristics.
I think socioenomics will really be the key. Right now, Hispanics tend to be less educated, have lower incomes and lower status occupation vs non-Hispanic whites. It is unclear how much of that will fad away as the Hispanic population becomes less dominated by immigrants and is composed of more 2nd/3rd/4th generation.
I do agree, given the deep historical legacy of Black/White divisions it is hard to
imagine the idea of racial identities completely fading away in the next generation or so.
There's a good point you made about African-American communities. But to go even further, one must note that blacks in America are PURELY an American concept born from America herself. Most blacks in the US don't have ''ties'' with their native country. Many can trace their roots back to Ireland or Germany. But blacks can't (because Africa is NOT a country) and this makes it incredibly difficult. American Blacks are something society didn't intend but it happened anyways. This is important because black people can't help they are black. They've been ''along for the ride'' since the beginning.
Along for the ride meaning: slavery at first, then Jim Crown became the new slavery. It's a systematic thing more than anything. Until the system accounts for this, I don't think we'll ever be post racial.
I agree given history and current socio-economic gaps it will be hard to imagine the US being post-racial from a black/white perspective. But, where do you think Asians, Hispanics, Middle Easterns fit in to the mix. They don't have the same racial legacy as African-Americans. Although, there was historical racism against Asians and Latinos, most are descendent of voluntary immigrants who came to the US post-65. The contemporary racism/prejudice against these immigrants is more on the scale of the discrimination faced against South and Eastern Europeans a century ago than it is the dark legacy of Slavery/Jim Crow.
It seems the White-Hispanic and White-Asian gap is smaller than White-Black...and is in many cases a function of immigration. Seems there will be very high integration, among 2nd/3rd generation.
I agree given history and current socio-economic gaps it will be hard to imagine the US being post-racial from a black/white perspective. But, where do you think Asians, Hispanics, Middle Easterns fit in to the mix. They don't have the same racial legacy as African-Americans. Although, there was historical racism against Asians and Latinos, most are descendent of voluntary immigrants who came to the US post-65. The contemporary racism/prejudice against these immigrants is more on the scale of the discrimination faced against South and Eastern Europeans a century ago than it is the dark legacy of Slavery/Jim Crow.
It seems the White-Hispanic and White-Asian gap is smaller than White-Black...and is in many cases a function of immigration. Seems there will be very high integration, among 2nd/3rd generation.
You answered this so beautifully.
I'm African-American, many people don't realize even thought we were ''born in this country with opportunity'' we really were not. An immigrant can ''chose'' what area they want to live in when they move here. Blacks were born in their area (for many the ghetto). If we could look at this way, I can move to richest part of India and become successful but criticize those in the ''poor'' parts.
Voluntary immigrants, even ones treated terribly (like the Irish, Poles, etc.) were able to come to this country with ideals form another and know the rules of the game.
The same goes for a lot of poor white areas. Poor whites are automatically born in a place where they are disadvantaged, but I've seen some foreigners criticize them for not ''pulling up their bootstraps''. Kind of hard when you don't know where the boots are even buried.
I read a book a long time ago - maybe by Marge Piercy? - that said there could be no peace in America until people had interbred so much that everyone looks pale brownish, like Hispanics look now. I think that may be true.
As an older person with completely Western European heritage, I've been noticing lately how many Americans I see on TV and on-line (not actors, but real people) look like some kind of Asian/Hispanic/Whatever it is mix.
And if I'm completely honest, it does bother me a little. How can these new people buy in to the basic premises of what has made America work in the past, if they have no heritage among the original settlers who created this republic? How can they relate to the history of America? I really want to know an answer to this from people who are descended only from late 20th or early 21st century immigrants and are multiracial. What do you understand about the history of America and how does that relate to your life as a citizen today??
What really IS happening, I think, is that multiracial people are beginning to dominate on the coasts and in the south, and this will eventually squeeze to the middle of the country. So probably the last stand (and I don't mean that in a violent or military way) for Western European Americans will take place in the northern middle of the country.
We're quiet and polite, though, so we'll just move up to Canada and then we'll eventally courteously die out.
I read a book a long time ago - maybe by Marge Piercy? - that said there could be no peace in America until people had interbred so much that everyone looks pale brownish, like Hispanics look now. I think that may be true.
As an older person with completely Western European heritage, I've been noticing lately how many Americans I see on TV and on-line (not actors, but real people) look like some kind of Asian/Hispanic/Whatever it is mix.
And if I'm completely honest, it does bother me a little. How can these new people buy in to the basic premises of what has made America work in the past, if they have no heritage among the original settlers who created this republic? How can they relate to the history of America? I really want to know an answer to this from people who are descended only from late 20th or early 21st century immigrants and are multiracial. What do you understand about the history of America and how does that relate to your life as a citizen today??
What really IS happening, I think, is that multiracial people are beginning to dominate on the coasts and in the south, and this will eventually squeeze to the middle of the country. So probably the last stand (and I don't mean that in a violent or military way) for Western European Americans will take place in the northern middle of the country.
We're quiet and polite, though, so we'll just move up to Canada and then we'll eventally courteously die out.
I think your argument is based too much on the idea of genetic lineage. Weren't a lot of these ideas touted out before. Catholics were potentially disloyal because they would take orders from Rome. Italians lacked the protestant work ethic and would nap all day, Eastern Europeans were non-democratic anarchists.
The founding father were basically English protestants, but over time Irish Catholics and later Eastern Europeans all came to be viewed as fully American.
Shouldn't the bigger focus be on embracing the values and ideas that the nation was founded on? Too be American there are certain values you have to adopt: 1) democracy 2) hard work and personal responsibility 3) tolerance toward others 4) treating others equally and avoiding sectarianism 5) accept English as the common and unifying language.
The "multi cultural" camp goes too far with identity politics. They sometimes seem they want to institutionalize racial or ethnic differences for the sake of "diversity."
The talk of the US becoming a diverse county is a little silly. The US has long been a diverse county.
Previously, the country was a "WASP" nation, with non-protest northern Europeans as "ethnic outsiders". Then gradually other groups assimilated and just became "white". Nobody talks much about the Irish vote anymore. Realistically, white was just a catch all for the dominate culture of the US.
Seems the best route forward is for everyone to just view themselves as part of the dominate culture. View ourselves all as Americans who happen to be of Japanese or Italian or African descent. Maybe keep a little of the heritage for family reasons. Obviously, we need to make sure everyone is being treated fairly. But, not view ourselves primarily a white, black, Hispanic, Asian, etc.
The former because their illegal status makes it dangerous for them to assimilate, since they can be deported at any time.
The latter for historical reasons. I'll change my mind once people start calling Barack Obama white, since he is technically as White as he is Black.
Except I don't think even citizen/legal Hispanics are truly assimilating in this country. It is a culture of tribalism. By that I mean many put their ethnic group (especially those here illegally) above the best interests and laws of this country. Also, I notice that they for the most part refuse to make English their primary language of usage.
As for blacks, and I never call them African-Americans, I think they are pretty much assimilated already.
I really couldn't care less about skin color or what or faces will look like in the future. It's all about retaining our identifying culture and language to me.
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