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Old 07-23-2015, 07:43 PM
 
24,885 posts, read 11,599,261 times
Reputation: 11617

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Costaexpress View Post
There will be jobs to design, maintain, repair, and improve these vehicles. There will be probably amenities for these vehicles, crew required for these amenities, apps, customer service, information systems, etc.
LOL.

Ahhh foolish human. You really should just start welcoming your new AI overlords now

OK a serious answer. No. If anything the number of people required to design vehicles is going down. While initially the increased software for them went up, we're fast entering the electric vehicle era. And those have FAR far less moving parts. Teslas R&D group is surprisingly small.

Maintain and repair? I've seen early discussions about automating completely the tearing down and rebuilding vehicles with no human intervention. The idea being to literally not require any repair work done by humans.

The software side is true. But people aren't getting any smarter, and we cant find enough engineers already.

Lets be honest, the vast majority of humans are not cut out for writing complex code.

Human employments going to take some serious hits over the next decade.

I recently needed a MRI, and a bunch of other medical tests. In all honesty I'd rather have a computer reviewing the data then a human. We're still sticking with humans, but shouldnt.

The Future of Health Care: Hacking, Hospitals, Technology and More - WSJ

Go read that, point 1 talks about monitoring your elderly parent-their estimate is in 15 years. I worked on a early version of that.....4 years ago. It monitored where in the room they were, if they left, how often they peed, and we were rolling out something to do cognitive tests, diabetes monitoring, blood pressure, etc etc.

4 years ago.

Its getting cheaper and FAR more capable these days. The ability to do all of that is here NOW. The cost? maybe 4-5 years before its so affordable that it makes basic economic sense. Right now its used in some of the more high end retirement communities.
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Old 07-23-2015, 07:57 PM
 
2,485 posts, read 1,763,791 times
Reputation: 2140
Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
LOL.

Ahhh foolish human. You really should just start welcoming your new AI overlords now

OK a serious answer. No. If anything the number of people required to design vehicles is going down. While initially the increased software for them went up, we're fast entering the electric vehicle era. And those have FAR far less moving parts. Teslas R&D group is surprisingly small.

Maintain and repair? I've seen early discussions about automating completely the tearing down and rebuilding vehicles with no human intervention. The idea being to literally not require any repair work done by humans.

The software side is true. But people aren't getting any smarter, and we cant find enough engineers already.

Lets be honest, the vast majority of humans are not cut out for writing complex code.

Human employments going to take some serious hits over the next decade.

I recently needed a MRI, and a bunch of other medical tests. In all honesty I'd rather have a computer reviewing the data then a human. We're still sticking with humans, but shouldnt.

The Future of Health Care: Hacking, Hospitals, Technology and More - WSJ

Go read that, point 1 talks about monitoring your elderly parent-their estimate is in 15 years. I worked on a early version of that.....4 years ago. It monitored where in the room they were, if they left, how often they peed, and we were rolling out something to do cognitive tests, diabetes monitoring, blood pressure, etc etc.

4 years ago.

Its getting cheaper and FAR more capable these days. The ability to do all of that is here NOW. The cost? maybe 4-5 years before its so affordable that it makes basic economic sense. Right now its used in some of the more high end retirement communities.
You call me a foolish human? Civil debate?
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Old 07-23-2015, 08:39 PM
 
Location: NC Piedmont
3,806 posts, read 2,636,330 times
Reputation: 6005
Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
If anything the number of people required to design vehicles is going down. While initially the increased software for them went up, we're fast entering the electric vehicle era. And those have FAR far less moving parts. Teslas R&D group is surprisingly small.

Maintain and repair? I've seen early discussions about automating completely the tearing down and rebuilding vehicles with no human intervention. The idea being to literally not require any repair work done by humans.

The software side is true. But people aren't getting any smarter, and we cant find enough engineers already.

Lets be honest, the vast majority of humans are not cut out for writing complex code.

Human employments going to take some serious hits over the next decade.
I read an article a while back (might have been WSJ) about the business casualties of automated cars. Many are not obvious. Once they are all automated, there are no moving violations written. Many counties and cities would lay off lots of traffic cops. They don't run into each other. Body shops go out of business. They can be lightly built, requiring far less steel. After an initial amazing run of a few years of awesome sales for the auto makers, sales go off a cliff. Cars don't wreck and maintenance is always performed as specified. Cars get serviced immediately on any malfunction. They will last a long time. They can run at highway speeds almost bumper to bumper and they allow lane changes without being encumbered with ego. Roads would be able to handle much more traffic than they currently do (like 2 to 5 times as much). There would likely be no major highway expansions for several years; road crews would be laid off. Not sure how the minimum wage got into this tangent, but there is a new day coming where there will not be enough work to go around and we will have to pay a lot of people to do nothing or let them starve. I am a basic wage proponent; I don't see how we ever get to this with unbridled capitalism.
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Old 07-23-2015, 09:28 PM
 
Location: Washington state
4,679 posts, read 2,296,137 times
Reputation: 13633
I'm quoting another post on this same subject:

"You may want to actually read the history of the Federal Minimum Wage under the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938. A minimum wage was established FOR THE PURPOSE of providing full-time workers a wage high enough to make a decent living. As FDR said, "“By living wages, I mean more than a bare subsistence level — I mean the wages of a decent living.” It was NOT passed as a bare minimum for low skilled laborers to struggle so they would "work harder for better pay." Nor was it established as an entry-level pay level for high school kids, physically and mentally disabled. It was passed into law so those people who entered the work force at the very least meet a decent - but modest - standard of living. Period."


The example I always give is that in 1975, we had a good economy and I was making minimum wage, $2 an hour. I was working full time and renting a 1 bedroom apartment for $125 per month and could fully support myself.

Today a 1 bedroom apartment is 8 times or more what I rented for then. Is minimum wage 8 times as more? No, it's not. If it was, we'd be paying $16 per hour for minimum wage. Will someone please explain to me why we were able to pay people a living wage in 1975 and why we can't do it today.
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Old 07-23-2015, 09:29 PM
 
Location: Lake Grove
2,753 posts, read 1,794,108 times
Reputation: 4439
Why not raise it to $30 an hr then? Where do we draw the line? After all, it's unfair that the cashier at Wendy's can't afford the same clothes/car/home/jewelry/vacations that a more skilled or brighter person can. Especially if they have the right connections.
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Old 07-23-2015, 09:57 PM
 
Location: Portland, OR
424 posts, read 266,864 times
Reputation: 679
Beyond great idea, in the 60s - 80s the minimum wage was the equivalent of about $15 dollars an hour today. And look at how much better the economy was and how so fewer people were on government assistance or homeless.
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Old 07-23-2015, 09:59 PM
 
48,886 posts, read 39,370,650 times
Reputation: 30546
Quote:
Originally Posted by rodentraiser View Post
I'm quoting another post on this same subject:

"You may want to actually read the history of the Federal Minimum Wage under the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938. A minimum wage was established FOR THE PURPOSE of providing full-time workers a wage high enough to make a decent living. As FDR said, "“By living wages, I mean more than a bare subsistence level — I mean the wages of a decent living.” It was NOT passed as a bare minimum for low skilled laborers to struggle so they would "work harder for better pay." Nor was it established as an entry-level pay level for high school kids, physically and mentally disabled. It was passed into law so those people who entered the work force at the very least meet a decent - but modest - standard of living. Period."


The example I always give is that in 1975, we had a good economy and I was making minimum wage, $2 an hour. I was working full time and renting a 1 bedroom apartment for $125 per month and could fully support myself.

Today a 1 bedroom apartment is 8 times or more what I rented for then. Is minimum wage 8 times as more? No, it's not. If it was, we'd be paying $16 per hour for minimum wage. Will someone please explain to me why we were able to pay people a living wage in 1975 and why we can't do it today.
It's because:

1) You live in an area that has had a cost of living surge. Many parts of the US you could still rent a 1 bedroom apt. for $500 which is less than what the min wage has increased.

2) What changed is that the abnormal period post-war when anybody could make good money is gone. Between jobs off-shoring and and 6-million illegals suppressing the wages in the blue collar labor market how are you confused?

P.S. The argument that illegals don't suppress blue collar wages is so offensively ignorant that making it is just insane.
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Old 07-23-2015, 10:01 PM
 
48,886 posts, read 39,370,650 times
Reputation: 30546
Quote:
Originally Posted by RipCityBassWorks View Post
Beyond great idea, in the 60s - 80s the minimum wage was the equivalent of about $15 dollars an hour today. And look at how much better the economy was and how so fewer people were on government assistance or homeless.
You mean before most of the rest of the world industrialized and started competing with us without pesky things like benefits, human rights and environmental controls?
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Old 07-23-2015, 10:07 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
5,242 posts, read 3,393,710 times
Reputation: 8783
With regard to automation taking people's jobs, we actually DO have historical precedent to illuminate what might happen.

Ie: the English enclosure movement - for a landowner, sheep became more valuable than people so you fenced your land in, put sheep on it, kicked most of the people out - they were not your problem anymore. The poorer classes means of subsistence - common use of the fields, was now gone. Society continued, but there were a lot of riots and social problems, particularly in the urban slums that the poor people were forced into. Eventually England passed a series of "poor laws" that provided these people's basic needs which was less expensive than the military and security costs of dealing with regular riots and uprisings.

The same thing won't happen today because now, we have democracy - meaning the political system responds before the string gets pulled so tight that it snaps. So IF automation takes too many jobs - you'll see the politics of the country reflect the backlash and change policy before things get bad enough for riots. If there ARE riots - then the political system reacts more quickly. If you read FDR's reasoning for the New Deal, he talked a lot about wanting to avoid riots. Small problems are easier to deal with than big problems.

The $15 minimum wage movement is a reaction to the general problems of cost of living inflation and wage stagnation. If it was raised to $10.10 a couple years ago the calls for $15 would be falling on deaf ears today. If we don't respond and the problems continue, the pressure will increase. There is no stopping this - birds gotta sing, fish gotta swim and people have to live. We're going to get a minimum wage increase sooner or later and the longer it gets delayed - the more extreme the movement for it is going to get and they'll start talking about more than just minimum wage - they'll start talking about more socialist-style programs.
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Old 07-23-2015, 10:24 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
5,242 posts, read 3,393,710 times
Reputation: 8783
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
It's because:

1) You live in an area that has had a cost of living surge. Many parts of the US you could still rent a 1 bedroom apt. for $500 which is less than what the min wage has increased.

2) What changed is that the abnormal period post-war when anybody could make good money is gone. Between jobs off-shoring and and 6-million illegals suppressing the wages in the blue collar labor market how are you confused?

P.S. The argument that illegals don't suppress blue collar wages is so offensively ignorant that making it is just insane.
It should also be noted that immigration ground to a halt because of the Great Depression and there wasn't much immigration between 1945 and 1970 and what immigration did occur was overshadowed by the much larger boom in natural increase that occurred during that period.

There were also deportations of immigrants during the Great Depression because a lot of people blamed them for taking jobs and holding down wages. Hundreds of thousands were repatriated. It did nothing to resolve the depression. If we kicked out every single illegal immigrant AND their children it would not solve the wage problem we're having.

http://www.gilderlehrman.org/history...eat-depression
http://www.uscis.gov/history-and-gen...-repatriations
http://epcc.libguides.com/content.ph...55&sid=2573137

The 1945-1973 period was unique in American history for a number of reasons, one of which is that there was not much immigration during that time. The default condition for the U.S. for most of its history is a lot of immigration - and the existing residents complaining about it. What we're getting now is proportionally much less than the late 19th, early 20th century, but it's more than the post WWII period.

Last edited by redguard57; 07-23-2015 at 10:33 PM..
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