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Old 10-27-2015, 12:34 PM
 
444 posts, read 817,024 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
Sorry, this thread originally ended in Automotive somehow. Fixing that.

I was reading on population growth and here's what I do not understand.

1. Current USA mortality rate is approximately 2.6 million people a year.
FastStats - Deaths and Mortality

2. Current USA population growth is roughly 0.7% a year which adds up to about 2.2 million and declining
US Population Growth Rate by Year

3. Current USA population is roughly 320 million people.

Even at a glance, USA population is declining in its numbers, as mortality is higher than growth.




Then how did it happen that USA is on the list of the 10 fastest population growth countries in the world, along with say Nigeria?

(1) India 467 million projected population increase
(2) Nigeria 231 million
(3) Pakistan 101 million
(4) Tanzania 93 million
(5) United States 93 million
(6) DR Congo 83 million
(7) Ethiopia 62 million
(8) Philippines 62 million
(9) Uganda 61 million
(10) Kenya 56 million

10 Countries With the Largest Projected Population Growth: American Exceptionalism*|*Howard Steven Friedman
I'm sure 1 million new immigrants every year probably helps.

https://data.oecd.org/migration/perm...nt-inflows.htm

And this isn't including BRC babies and/or DREAMERS.
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Old 10-27-2015, 01:05 PM
 
Location: Virginia
6,186 posts, read 3,551,802 times
Reputation: 8864
Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
And it's not immigration, not enough:

Annual Limits for Immigrant Visas

  • The annual limit for total number of legal immigrants is 675,000. This is the maximum allotment of visa numbers per year, covering both foreign nationals who receive immigrant visas at consular offices abroad, and those who adjust status within the United States.
    • 675,000 is a "flexible" cap, with certain categories of immigrants exempted from the limit (for example, immediate relatives of U.S. Citizens and certain special immigrants)
    • The annual limit is divided into three main categories: family sponsored, employment-based, and diversity visa
    • 675,000 = 480,000 + 140,000 + 55,000 (see below)
    Visa Bulletin: Immigrant Visa Annual Limits and Caps
I don't think these numbers are accurate. Does this site use the federal government as a source for the 675k cap? Are they including refugees and asylees? Are they including minors and other relatives brought over? Because in 2013 we added just under a million legal immigrants, according to the Congressional Research Service https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42866.pdf.
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Old 10-27-2015, 02:21 PM
 
Location: Chattanooga, TN
3,045 posts, read 5,198,974 times
Reputation: 5149
Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
[snip]2. Current USA population growth is roughly 0.7% a year which adds up to about 2.2 million and declining
US Population Growth Rate by Year

3. Current USA population is roughly 320 million people.
[snip]
(5) United States 93 million
[snip]
10 Countries With the Largest Projected Population Growth: American Exceptionalism*|*Howard Steven Friedman
Notnamed already identified the problem:
Quote:
Originally Posted by notnamed View Post
Ukrkoz, the population growth figure is not the birth rate. It is already the answer to your question. Birth rate - death rate. You seem to just be misunderstanding the term.
You assumed that "USA population growth" at the above link was the birth rate, but it's the total (net) population growth. From the link: "US population growth rate per year. Annual percentage increase in US Resident population."

320,000,000 x 0.007 = 2,240,000 net population increase per year. The deaths per year has already been subtracted from that number.

Next, the 93million in the HuffPo article is the total projected growth over 40 years (2010 to 2050). This number assumes that the 2.24mil annual increase from the Census bureau stays fairly consistent, which will not happen. The numbers in that article are totally bogus.

You are right in that the current birth rate in the USA is less than 2.1/woman. The current population increase is due to the statistical anomaly of the Baby Boom from the last century. Currently there are more women of child-bearing age than there would normally be assuming a steady population, plus the recent huge advances in elder care that is greatly extending average life span.

Even though the birth rate is currently less than 2.0/female, the higher-than-normal relative percentage of child-bearing women plus lower-than-normal death rate means the population is still slowly climbing. Within a few decades this will reverse. Fewer babies are being born, so when they reach child-bearing age there will be fewer of them. And elder-care is leveling out, so that increase will stop. Even with immigration, if current trends continue the population of the USA will start to decline fairly soon.
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Old 10-27-2015, 02:31 PM
 
8,353 posts, read 7,297,424 times
Reputation: 8610
Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
1. Current USA mortality rate is approximately 2.6 million people a year.
FastStats - Deaths and Mortality

2. Current USA population growth is roughly 0.7% a year which adds up to about 2.2 million and declining
US Population Growth Rate by Year
2.6 million deaths per year, per the CDC link in the first item.

3.93 million births per year, per the CDC.

That's a net increase of 1.33 million in U.S. population in 2013, ignoring immigration.

U.S. Population at the end of 2012 was 312.8 mllion and at the end of 2013 was 315.1 million, a difference of 2.3 million, which is a 0.7% increase.

From the numbers, it appears that there were about a million people who immigrated into the U.S. in 2013.
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Old 10-27-2015, 02:31 PM
 
Location: World
4,204 posts, read 4,656,880 times
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Immigration is not only about giving Citizenships to immigrants of other countries. It is also about people living on different Visas in the USA. Immigrants tend to be of young age and when they have children or call their parents, spouses, that also add up in the population. A Foreign Graduate Student at any University in the USA will end up getting a job in H-1B Visa, bringing wife, parents and having 2-3 children in the USA. Thus Population gets increased by 8 people.
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Old 11-01-2015, 07:20 AM
 
1,589 posts, read 1,174,993 times
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Population is the number of persons living -- often defined as domiciled -- in a particular place. Citizenship has nothing to do with it. Born and died within the borders are one thing, but after that it can get murky.

Net international migration for the United States includes the international migration of both native and foreign-born populations. Specifically, it includes: (a) the net international migration of the foreign born, (b) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, (c) the net migration of natives to and from the United States, and (d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas. Net international migration for Puerto Rico includes the migration of native and foreign-born populations between the United States and Puerto Rico.

Moderator cut: Charged Language

Last edited by Jeo123; 11-06-2015 at 09:55 AM..
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Old 11-02-2015, 01:41 PM
 
7,357 posts, read 11,677,696 times
Reputation: 8941
Quote:
Originally Posted by ukrkoz View Post
And it's not immigration, not enough:

Annual Limits for Immigrant Visas


  • The annual limit for total number of legal immigrants is 675,000. This is the maximum allotment of visa numbers per year, covering both foreign nationals who receive immigrant visas at consular offices abroad, and those who adjust status within the United States.
    • 675,000 is a "flexible" cap, with certain categories of immigrants exempted from the limit (for example, immediate relatives of U.S. Citizens and certain special immigrants)
    • The annual limit is divided into three main categories: family sponsored, employment-based, and diversity visa
    • 675,000 = 480,000 + 140,000 + 55,000 (see below)
    Visa Bulletin: Immigrant Visa Annual Limits and Caps

You're ignoring how many people ignore the legal limit and move here anyway! And never forget how much govt record-keeping lags behind reality. I don't read those stats and assume I know how many people are in the country!
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Old 11-04-2015, 06:45 AM
 
17,262 posts, read 11,078,289 times
Reputation: 40501
Illegal immigration is huge! Most people in the middle of the country have no idea. One senator recently admitted that the real number is about 30 million illegals here now, not the 11 million usually talked about. These people also have numerous kids which are born US citizens. Do the math.
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Old 11-04-2015, 05:26 PM
 
1,589 posts, read 1,174,993 times
Reputation: 1097
Quote:
Originally Posted by marino760 View Post
Illegal immigration is huge! Most people in the middle of the country have no idea. One senator recently admitted that the real number is about 30 million illegals here now, not the 11 million usually talked about.
More likely, your source is the former Mexican ambassador to the US who claimed on MSNBC back in August that both 30 million and 11.3 million illegals are living in America. He's obviously done his homework to be able to come up with not just one, but two different numbers like that. Very impressive!
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Old 11-05-2015, 04:59 AM
 
3,393 posts, read 5,253,571 times
Reputation: 3031
US does not need anymore people. We'll look like India in a couple of decades.
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