Who will replace the United States as World's greatest superpower?

[Compression]

If the US goes down, for whatever combination of circumstances (there is quite a soup brewing already) It will be between China and India.

Mention has been made about "mindset" of those two populations, but our own "mindset" isn't what it once was, either.

China has built it's first indigenous CV to add to the one of Russian origin it bought from Ukraine. They are planning an additional four over the next ten years. They have also launched the first of their super destroyers (Type 055, if memory serves) that can supposedly go one on one with our Burke class ships.

While nobody can match our CV's, if some form of collapse were to occur where we could no longer afford to operate them (all or some) the balance of power could shift quickly.

India also operates CV's, and is planning a nuclear powered type (Vishal), and their current CV's are roughly equal to China's.

If India and Chinese tensions rise to the point of a showdown in the Indian Ocean arena one or the other would likely emerge as the power broker to be dealt with. If such a clash happens sooner than later, it's a toss up. The longer out such a conflict is delayed, China becomes more favored to come out on top.

I'm figuring the mid 2030's as the likely time frame for a new "superpower" to rise to dominance. Given the moves China is making now to consolidate and defend their influence near their home waters, my money is on them.



CN

[craigiri]

Originally Posted by cheekygentlemenn

>
Although the West is a boiling frog, it is still capable of defeating China in a War. And more importantly there are enough red blooded Westeners that still possess a backbone to fight for our position. But this is steadily decreasing with the help of neoliberalism. China can sit back and watch us ruin ourselves

India? Not seeing it. Think their nearing population boom will hurt too.

You think, without large financial and other rewards, that Americans would sign up in droves to die in China? Even recent history shows much differently. Staffing up for tiny regional conflicts required lowering standards, large bonuses and trillions in "outside contractors".

China need not worry about all-out war with the USA...after all, what would we do IF we "won". Enslave them?

They won already. Every day they watch and laugh. 80% of them believe in their country and leaders - while 35% of us do....and they have a LOT more people.

No, 5,000 nukes are not going to save us or get China trembling.

Wall Street and London and Silicon Valley and ALL Capital is committed to China. The last thing our real rulers would want is to slow the gravy train.

[Thoreau424]

China seems best suited for moving to the top. And they've been around so long too. They've got that ol' lasting power. The US is just an infant in comparison, time-wise. The people of China are unified, because that has always been important to them. The US is united in name only.

[MinivanDriver]

Originally Posted by craigiri

I think folks underestimate the Chinese.

You cannot make a generalization, but there is no other country in the world with the specific combinations of:
1. Ability and willingness to WORK. In the end, economics - not military might itself - will rule.
2. Intelligence
3. Numbers
4. Location

The thing about being a "superpower" which we have already seen...is that superpowers are afraid of even the smallest country with a nuke. In fact, superpowers were afraid of N. Korea even before they had a bomb (if they even have a working one now is suspect...deliverable).

So it's the same story of losing in Iraq or Vietnam. How many TRILLIONS of dollars did one man (Bin Laden) and his small group cost us? Much more than we could afford (see our National Debt).

All those "American Allies" are looking at as differently right now and, in the end, self-preservation is their goal.

China actually has policies and does things. Meantime, the USA is largely mired in the past and cutting funds from Energy and Science and other things.

If "super power" means thousands of nukes and spending so much on security that your people are homeless, poor and doing without basics....well, then, we "win". But if it means...as I suspect it does and it will....efficiency, capability and then willingness to go above and beyond the Call of Duty militarily, then we quickly sinking.

Personally, I could case less about being a "super power" unless we are talking about health care, research, environmental improvement, increased efficiency, less waste and more happy and healthy people.

You can't take "super power" to the grocery store and buy food with it.

Note - one small example - the most valuable "hardware startup" of the last few years is a Chinese Company that makes drones - named DJI. No American company can even START to compete, let alone build even a basic working consumer model. Not even close. This technology is VERY important to most every facet of the future and yet we don't have it.

Those in the know have compared DJI to an early Apple. But it's MUCH more than that. Apple didn't invent anything comparable and, especially now, is only involved in evolution (improvement) of their stuff.

Take DJI times 100 or 1,000 or more and that is what is going on in China today.

Sure, we have Silicon Valley and the Boston area. But we don't have as many "hungry" people who are willing to establish multi-generational companies and take big risks to create stuff that doesn't exist yet.

Luckily for us, a S. African immigrant with the name Elon Musk does. Same goes with a Russian immigrant who started Google. We have some mojo....but not the numbers and not the population who are willing to work. Fewer and fewer of these smart people want to come to the US now that we have declared most of them unwelcome.

Is there anyone here who doubts that the average Chinese will work harder, longer and smarter than the average American?

I don't underestimate the Chinese, but I agree with veteran China watchers who contend that the Chinese will get old before they get rich.

First, the gaudy GDP increases have a lot of air pumped into them. Yes, they have had impressive gains. But not nearly what they say they have been. Second, as of 2014, China is now looking at a dwindling working age population. As in, the number of available workers is falling off a cliff, a consequence of the One Couple/One Child policy. According to an article from International Security a couple of years ago, China will lose something like 250,000,000 from its working age population by the age 2050, while the United States will gain 50,000,000.

Here's another good article on the subject: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...-years/480768/

[ipkl07]

China or India