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Old 09-25-2008, 04:16 PM
 
Location: somewhere in the south
403 posts, read 1,073,772 times
Reputation: 252

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1. Home prices are going to keep declining until 2012.
2. People are going to continue losing their homes, with record numbers going up each year. There will be 4-5 million foreclosures in a year around 2011 or 2012.
3. Gas prices are going to shoot up to $5-$7 a gallon.
4. The value of the US dollar is going to collapse.
5. Income will start declining.
6. People are going to eat out less, go on less vacations, and start saving more money.
7. Millions of people are going to lose their jobs.
8. "Tent cities" will start appearing.
9. Wall Street is going to go chaos.
10. People are not going to be able to go to college and get an education and a degree, due to people cutting back on money and colleges getting more expensive.

So, these are the things that I think are going to start happening in the next
1-5 year(s). It's time to stop sugar coating about everything's that's going on, we need to face the true facts and reality. I see a repeat of the 1930s Great Depression. Don't bash me for saying what's probably going to happen and it probably will happen. Any more suggestions or predictions of what could happen is open.
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Old 09-25-2008, 04:24 PM
 
Location: Pennsylvania, USA
5,218 posts, read 2,209,567 times
Reputation: 908
Quote:
Originally Posted by kwflconch View Post
1. Home prices are going to keep declining until 2012.
2. People are going to continue losing their homes, with record numbers going up each year. There will be 4-5 million foreclosures in a year around 2011 or 2012.
3. Gas prices are going to shoot up to $5-$7 a gallon.
4. The value of the US dollar is going to collapse.
5. Income will start declining.
6. People are going to eat out less, go on less vacations, and start saving more money.
7. Millions of people are going to lose their jobs.
8. "Tent cities" will start appearing.
9. Wall Street is going to go chaos.
10. People are not going to be able to go to college and get an education and a degree, due to people cutting back on money and colleges getting more expensive.

So, these are the things that I think are going to start happening in the next
1-5 year(s). It's time to stop sugar coating about everything's that's going on, we need to face the true facts and reality. I see a repeat of the 1930s Great Depression. Don't bash me for saying what's probably going to happen and it probably will happen. Any more suggestions or predictions of what could happen is open.

It's really scary..

I'm glad the house I'l be renting will allow me space to grow my own food!!
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Old 09-26-2008, 12:21 AM
 
2,648 posts, read 3,133,672 times
Reputation: 1819
Quote:
1. Home prices are going to keep declining until 2012.
No Arguement there

Quote:
2. People are going to continue losing their homes, with record numbers going up each year. There will be 4-5 million foreclosures in a year around 2011 or 2012.
Agree w/ 2a., not sure about 2b.

Quote:
3. Gas prices are going to shoot up to $5-$7 a gallon.
I agree Gas will stay high - $3-$5/ Gallon, but as economic activity declines demand for gas will as well & the price will decline. I'd be shocked if we ever paid <$2.50/gallon. But equally surprised if we see prices north of $5.50 in the current economy.

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4. The value of the US dollar is going to collapse.
Done
Quote:

5. Income will start declining.
This is the most obvious outcome. I always thought this was coming. Did people really think we could contimue to pay people $20/hr plus benefits when workers in other countries will do the same work for $3/hour? Globalization will reduce the disparity in international wages & standards of living. Implied in that is that since we are at the top of the heap our standard of living will decline even as others rise. Net Net the world's average standard will rise, but ours declining is inevitable.

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6. People are going to eat out less, go on less vacations, and start saving more money.
About frickin' time!

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7. Millions of people are going to lose their jobs.
Short term there will be a few point rise in unemployment, but I doubt it will be long term or anywhere near as bad the late 70's or early 80's. The demographics of an aging population with boomers pouring over the retirement threshold will keep the rate down.

Quote:
8. "Tent cities" will start appearing.
I doubt that.

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9. Wall Street is going to go chaos.
Serves them right.

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10. People are not going to be able to go to college and get an education and a degree, due to people cutting back on money and colleges getting more expensive.
Our post secondary education system needs a change. It is outrageous that people have to assume mortgage size debt just to get an education. Our colleges & universities need to figure out a way to deliver meaningful educational programs that equip people for careers at a resonable cost. $100k+ to get a history degree? Please.

Quote:
So, these are the things that I think are going to start happening in the next 1-5 year(s). It's time to stop sugar coating about everything's that's going on, we need to face the true facts and reality. I see a repeat of the 1930s Great Depression. Don't bash me for saying what's probably going to happen and it probably will happen. Any more suggestions or predictions of what could happen is open.
Bottom line, I see a steep but survivable drop followed by a long (5-7 year) period of sideways economic growth. We will adapt & overcome. America always has & always will. This could actually be good for us in a "what does not kill you makes you stronger" kind of way. We were getting a bit fat & happy there for a while. Now it is back to reality.
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Old 09-26-2008, 07:53 AM
 
Location: Ohio
10,646 posts, read 5,956,185 times
Reputation: 6053
Quote:
Originally Posted by kwflconch View Post
1. Home prices are going to keep declining until 2012.

2. People are going to continue losing their homes, with record numbers going up each year. There will be 4-5 million foreclosures in a year around 2011 or 2012.
2024

Things related to interest rates are affected by Fiscal Inflation. Cheap credit, but you also have to factor in Supply & Demand. That's why auto prices are not affected, because Supply far and above exceeds demand (hence Rebates plus Cash Back plus Customer Loyalty Bonuses and now new gimmicks like Employee Pricing).

When you have Cost Inflation, there's nothing you can do except stop consuming, which causes a recession. You can force people do reduce consumption by raising interest rates, which the Federal Reserve did in the late 1970s when the rate jumped to 13%. That would shrink the credit pool and drive housing prices down.

Plus as things get worse starting in 2015, you'll have families sharing living space in order to make ends meet and have the extras like cable, internet and cell-phone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kwflconch View Post
3. Gas prices are going to shoot up to $5-$7 a gallon.
Hard to say.

I think Ethanol is dead, because the E85 standard is going to collapse. There are currently 11 plants under construction that have shut down because of no credit.

If you remember back in June, Heartland Ethanol walked away from 7 proposed plants because they couldn't get financing. Those 7 plants were supposed to come on-line in 2011/2012.

Here's the thing, Citigroup is backing 123 plants.

There's 160 now operating or under construction (plus the 11 that have ceased construction).

I would mention that so far, John McCain is the only one calling for a reexamination of the bio-fuels mandate. If we are in a Maunder Minimum, it'll ruin corn and soy crops for ethanol and bio-diesel and leave consumers paying through the nose for fuel and food. Figure around 2012-2015 the growing season north of I-80 is only going to be about 3-4 months and that will gradually shrink to 6-8 weeks within 10 years after that.

If Citigroup collapses or needs a bailout (and even if they don't it's still possible that) most of those 123 ethanol plants will close or cut production, and according to the Renewable Fuels Association, we'd lose about 5 Billion gallons of ethanol production which would drive up the price of gasoline unless Congress eliminates the ethanol mandate altogether.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kwflconch View Post
4. The value of the US dollar is going to collapse.
The US Dollar will not collapse, at least not any time in the next 10 years. If you want to see anything close to the hyper-inflation in the Weimar Republic, the government would have to pump over $1000 Trillion into the economy, and that ain't gonna happen.

In 1921, a standard daily newspaper in Germany cost 30 pfennings. 2 years later it cost 70 Million marks. That's an increase of 23 Billion%. Your average German was earning about 12 Billion marks per day in wages.

If the US doesn't invade Iran to get control of Central Asia, or otherwise can't get control of Central Asia, you can worry about the US Dollar collapsing in about 12-15 years, when $1 = 0.24 Euros.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kwflconch View Post
5. Income will start declining.
6. People are going to eat out less, go on less vacations, and start saving more money.
Incomes won't decline, rather prices will continually increase. That's the difference between Cost Inflation and other forms of inflation like Wage Inflation or Monetary Inflation.

When Cost Inflation occurs, prices continually rise will wages remain stagnant. Sure, people claim they get raises, but price increases outstrip the wages.

The other day downtown at lunch some secretaries at a law firm apparently got their salary reviews, and while they all got raises, they were commenting that the price of parking and a few other things had just increased. So not only did the price increases negate their pay raise, they'll be paying additional costs out of pocket to park.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kwflconch View Post
7. Millions of people are going to lose their jobs.
That's one way to stop Cost Inflation. 50 Million permanent lost jobs when all is said and done. It'll take a long time to get there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kwflconch View Post
8. "Tent cities" will start appearing.
Not likely, as Americans are too vain. They'll end up sharing space (they already do in some markets but for different reasons mainly housing costs).

Americans aren't just going to give up their cable/satellite, cell-phones and internet. They'll share space. Two families can rent a house/apartment or take a mortgage together on a house or condo (again they already do that in some markets because of housing costs) and two adults can take the one bedroom, the other two can take the 2nd bedroom and the 2-3 kids can share the 3rd bedroom. There are Millions of people walking around the US today who shared a bedroom with 2 or 3 siblings so we know it isn't a death sentence, and besides, Americans could learn to use a little humility.

Now they can share cable/satellite, internet and cell-phone family plans and save money, plus they'd save on day-care expenses since none are needed.

53% of American families have two-wage earners now, but that will drop to 10%-13% and I can't realistically see more than 3%-5%. The government would have to restructure the tax brackets to severely penalize two income families as a matter of good public policy. It wouldn't be fair if the Butt-hole family had two wage earners while you and your spouse collect ultraviolet rays. One of them can give up their job so that you or your spouse can work.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kwflconch View Post
9. Wall Street is going to go chaos.
Probably not.

If you look at the Great Depression, when the economy was declining, the stock market was soaring. When the economy rebounded (it did several times) the stock market collapsed.

When the economy started to rebound in 1938 for the final time, they were actually running out of workers to hire, yet that was the worst market crash in history, right there between 1938 and 1942.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kwflconch View Post
10. People are not going to be able to go to college and get an education and a degree, due to people cutting back on money and colleges getting more expensive.
College costs are increasing for the same reason public education costs are increasing: IT.

We spent $Millions to wire the campus with co-ax then $Millions more to re-wired with ether net, and now we're spending $Millions more wiring with fiber optics so the can have the goddam internet in the stadium. That stuff ain't cheap and it ain't cheap to maintain either.

Same with public schools. Yeah, Saint Gates gives free computers to the schools because he's ramming it up their asses with a $30 Million annual IT contract, and the students are dumber than ever.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kwflconch View Post
I see a repeat of the 1930s Great Depression.
The US got out of that because of WW II. If it hadn't been for that, it could have lasted past 1945 into the early 1950s.

I only mention that because after the Allied success in North Africa, the Brits, Free French and Bulgarians begged the US to invade the Balkans.

The Bulgarians were willing to help by providing intelligence plus troops to tie down the Germans. Two Romanian army groups were out of the country and the 3rd was scattered about with a small German group. All it would have taken was a pincher move from Vindin across the Dunarea and Vama Veche, and they could drive up the middle to Ploiesti while another group does an amphibious landing and encircles Bucharesti.

Instead, the US insisted on invading Italy even though the Italians were already surrendering and it offered nothing to shorten the war.

If they would have captured the oil fields, the war would have ended in 6-12 months, but it seems the US wanted to prolong the war for economic reasons.
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Old 09-27-2008, 10:30 PM
 
72 posts, read 149,740 times
Reputation: 38
Wow, that seems scary, I wonder why there aren't more comments about this.
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