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Old 01-01-2010, 03:07 PM
 
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I think that this is a fascinating topic. Some people think that there is a genetic link to crime, which may be marginally true. However, large fluctuations in crime rates when then mean that peoples DNA has changed radically over the last 10 or 20 years. How plausible is that?

It is true, or at least that is what the statistics read, that violent crime has reduced while unemployment and poverty has increased over these years. That seems rather counter intuitive given the widely held correlation between crime and poverty. What that tells me that the link between crime and poverty does not account for much of the violent crime in America today. In my opinion, violent crime is most profoundly linked to illegal drugs.

Crack cocaine ushered in a new era of violence in America. It is or was the illegal drug that skyrocketed levels of violence in inner-cities. What happened is that Crack cocaine continues to wane as a drug of choice and along with it the violence. Therefore, it could very easily be the case that poverty related crime is on the increase, but that drug related crime is decreasing by more than the poverty crime increase, resulting in an overall reduction. Eventually, however, if poverty continues to increase it will increase at a rate faster than drug violence decline as drug violence will reach an equilibrium level.

I think the era of prohibition is the best case study to understand the root of most of the violence in America.
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Old 01-01-2010, 03:12 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indentured Servant View Post
This is 100% FALSE! Michigan has been in recession since about 2006. If you look at the violent crime rate in Michigan in its larger cities you will see it has declined or stagnated in the aggregate, since 2006.
I picked three medium cities in Michigan at random, and compared 2004 to 2008, for rate of burglaries and robberies:
City . . . . . . .Burglaries . . . . . . . .Robberies
Battle Creek, UP 1334 to 1719, and UP 154 to 192
Grand Rapids UP 1098 to 1993, and UP 286 to 397
Saginaw . . . UP 1819 to 2710 and UP 345 to 555

In all instances, the 2006 rates were intermediate between the ones shown, except Grand Rapids, where burglaries peaked in 2007 and then declined for 2008. The general picture in Detroit and suburbs was a very high peak in crime in 2006-07, and then a partial return toward the pre-2006 values, but still above 2004 crime rates.

Last edited by jtur88; 01-01-2010 at 03:25 PM..
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Old 01-01-2010, 05:14 PM
 
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The question is this….why have you chosen 2004 as the baseline and why have you chosen only burglaries (none violent) and robberies? Moreover, do you understand what “Exponential” means? I understand you likely used it as a “figure is speech”, but it is an embellishment of the data you presented. Furthermore, the few cities you presented hardly represents a microcosm that reflects the general rule.

That said, I don’t have the stats in front of me, but if you take the point when Michigan’s unemployment was about 4.5 percent, which was around 1999 or 2000, I think that would logically be your starting point or baseline for comparison. Moreover, single years can represent aberrations from trends and are really not reliable for this purpose. One has to look at secular trends as opposed to comparing two years, such as 2004 vs 2008 or whatever you provided. I would think that going from 4.5% unemployment to 15.2% unemployment, over 3 times as high, would correlate to a crime rate 3 times as high...however, violent crime is stagnant or declining as a secular trend during that period.
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Old 01-01-2010, 05:34 PM
 
Location: I think my user name clarifies that.
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Originally Posted by 04JETTA View Post
I read on CNN that the reason crime is down is because more people are unemployed therefore thier sitting at home and are able to keep an eye out for a burglar/car thief/whoever
You bring up an interesting possibility - and one I hadn't really thought of.

Even so, it would seem to me that the rise and/or drop in crime is extremely multi-faceted, and can't be pinned on just one factor. Everything from increased police activity to shifting population is likely involved.
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Old 01-01-2010, 05:47 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,668 posts, read 71,653,762 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indentured Servant View Post
The question is this….why have you chosen 2004 as the baseline and why have you chosen only burglaries (none violent) and robberies?.


from 2006 to 2008 is a short sample, and there can be anomalies. I went back well before 2006 in order to show a representative trend over a long enough period that would diminish the effect of anomalies. I used robberies and burglaries that they are the most typical crimes that are associated with the economic circumstances.

If you disagree with the validity of my figures, fine. I disagree with yours (I guess---you didn't offer any). That does not make either of us right.
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Old 01-01-2010, 06:15 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
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I think that a very under studied portion of this is how under employment affects crime.

If people are unemployed they envy their neighbors or are in desperate need of their resources. Around Oregon there has been a number of home invasions and property theft recently, and it's reasonable with very high unemployment and little other options that it would be that way.

If people are under employed, and working hard with multiple endeavors just to survive, then people would be too tired to plan/execute or unable to see the wealth their neighbors have.
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Old 01-01-2010, 10:05 PM
 
1,255 posts, read 2,697,155 times
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Originally Posted by lifelongMOgal View Post
Californina is experiencing an exodus of sorts of illegal immigrants. Some are going back home and some are headed to other states. Given the population and ratio of illegal immigrants in CA prisons to other populations this is likely part of the reason.

Regardless of the state of the economy I do not accept crime. I take personal responsibility for my personal protection and that of my property.
I was thinking the same.

hillman
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Old 01-02-2010, 07:03 AM
 
Location: The Midst of Insanity
3,225 posts, read 6,130,293 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indentured Servant View Post
This is 100% FALSE! Michigan has been in recession since about 2006. If you look at the violent crime rate in Michigan in its larger cities you will see it has declined or stagnated in the aggregate, since 2006.
Yes, you are absolutely right that the numbers themselves in violent crime have decreased-but I wonder how this correlates with the large number of people who have also left the state in these past few years to find work elsewhere. The numbers in crime have decreased, but so has the number of the population.

http://detnews.com/article/20090402/...staggers-state

http://petemurphy.wordpress.com/2009...year-in-a-row/

Last edited by annika08; 01-02-2010 at 07:25 AM..
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Old 01-02-2010, 10:10 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,668 posts, read 71,653,762 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by annika08 View Post
Yes, you are absolutely right that the numbers themselves in violent crime have decreased-but I wonder how this correlates with the large number of people who have also left the state in these past few years to find work elsewhere. The numbers in crime have decreased, but so has the number of the population.
My data was crime rates---number of crimes per capita. However, I have no was of knowing whether each year's crime rate is based on an annually adjusted population estimate. In any case, Michigan's population declined by just one percent in just one year. When crime figures are off by one percent it's considered far too trivial a variance to be taken notice of.

For example, for Saginaw, from '07 to '08, the number of robberies went up by 17%, but the number of burglaries went down by 8%. What does that tell you, except that such things are highly variable from one year to the next, while population is extremely stable.

Last edited by jtur88; 01-02-2010 at 10:20 AM..
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Old 01-02-2010, 10:16 AM
 
Location: southern california
55,237 posts, read 72,484,664 times
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per OP
the argument that there is a direct strong correlation between bad economy and falling crime rate is a weak one. carried out it says poverty promotes peace. nothing on the hood to indicate that is true.
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