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Old 12-31-2009, 11:20 PM
 
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I've heard various places here in California, and throughout the country there has been a drop in murders, car thefts. There was a cover story the other day that both car thefts in Modesto and Stockton, two of the top five in car thefts have both declined. Now, I'm not sure how the economy would cause crime to decline, you'd think it would do the opposite.

I'm not saying crime is declining everywhere, but for arguments sake, heres my question. This economy has been hurting everybody, I don't know anyone that's not directly or indirectly affected. If you had a choice, would you rather have 5 more years of the economy going the way it has, but crime steadily decline. OR would you accept crime raising if the economy started growing again.

First thought might be, of course you'd take less crime, however, this recession has hurt a lot of people. I could see people accepting a few more break ins, if it meant a secure job.
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Old 01-01-2010, 02:08 AM
 
Location: Portlandia "burbs"
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Crime is sure not declining here where I live. Break-ins, even in daylight, have been at its worst here in the Portland-Metro area, as well as armed robbery (which has always been a rather big crime here).

Don't know about rape or car thefts, although car vandalism is up. However, someone breaking into my house just may see the end of a boom-boom.
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Old 01-01-2010, 06:51 AM
 
Location: The Midst of Insanity
3,225 posts, read 6,127,145 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluesbabe View Post
Crime is sure not declining here where I live. Break-ins, even in daylight, have been at its worst here in the Portland-Metro area, as well as armed robbery (which has always been a rather big crime here).

Don't know about rape or car thefts, although car vandalism is up. However, someone breaking into my house just may see the end of a boom-boom.
Crime has also risen exponentially in pretty much the entire state of Michigan. A lot of this correlates not only with our horrible economic decline and 15%+ unemployment, but the increasingly rapid early release of violent prisoners into society (due to budget cuts, hiring freezes and layoffs, and entire prison closings).
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Old 01-01-2010, 07:20 AM
 
Location: Victoria TX
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First of all, murders are an irrelevant statistic within the context of crime analysis. They occur far too rarely, their motive is rarely associated with otherwise criminal activity, a majority of them are never identified as murders, and almost half are never solved. So throw out murders from the discussion. It is completely irrational to look at a city's murder rate and try to relate that the causes or occurrences of crime in general. Also, rape, because it is too statistically variable. The number of rapes can remain constant, but the reportage highly variable according to prevailing social attitudes and even according to the definition of prosecutable rape. And it is never done for economic gain.

Your discussion needs to separate crime into its two component parts. One part is crime for gain, which includes theft, burglary, robberies, auto theft, embezzlement, fraud, con games, etc. The second part is what I guess we could call crime for the hell of it, and that is murders, domestic violence, rape, vandalism, assault, shoplifting. The first group of crimes rise and fall for partly economic factors, the second group of crime would occur mostly without the element of economics, although in some cases there is overlap, like the man who would not beat his wife if he could afford the hairdressers bills.

So, really, your question must be restricted to the crime rates associated with the first group of crimes, and the second group needs to be carefully discounted from the discussion. We are only talking about crimes now for economic gain. Robbery, theft and burglary, which are reported to local police and are statistically countable. Many such crimes are not handled by local police, such as identity theft and fraud, since so many commercial transactions are no longer localized.

Last edited by jtur88; 01-01-2010 at 07:29 AM..
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Old 01-01-2010, 12:36 PM
 
Location: The land of Chicago
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I read on CNN that the reason crime is down is because more people are unemployed therefore thier sitting at home and are able to keep an eye out for a burglar/car thief/whoever
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Old 01-01-2010, 12:49 PM
 
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Like I said, "I'M NOT SAYING CRIME IS DECLINING EVERYWHERE", it's more of a hypothetical question.
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Old 01-01-2010, 01:21 PM
 
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Maybe this is why...

"A homeowner says he shot and killed a man and wounded a woman who were breaking into his vehicle."


Homeowner uses deadly force to protect his property in northwest Houston - 12/31/09 - Houston News - abc13.com
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Old 01-01-2010, 01:28 PM
 
29,988 posts, read 35,874,407 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Everest209 View Post
I've heard various places here in California, and throughout the country there has been a drop in murders, car thefts. There was a cover story the other day that both car thefts in Modesto and Stockton, two of the top five in car thefts have both declined. Now, I'm not sure how the economy would cause crime to decline, you'd think it would do the opposite.

I'm not saying crime is declining everywhere, but for arguments sake, heres my question. This economy has been hurting everybody, I don't know anyone that's not directly or indirectly affected. If you had a choice, would you rather have 5 more years of the economy going the way it has, but crime steadily decline. OR would you accept crime raising if the economy started growing again.

First thought might be, of course you'd take less crime, however, this recession has hurt a lot of people. I could see people accepting a few more break ins, if it meant a secure job.
Californina is experiencing an exodus of sorts of illegal immigrants. Some are going back home and some are headed to other states. Given the population and ratio of illegal immigrants in CA prisons to other populations this is likely part of the reason.

Regardless of the state of the economy I do not accept crime. I take personal responsibility for my personal protection and that of my property.
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Old 01-01-2010, 01:48 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
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In the long run, in any society, there will always tend toward an inverse relationship between the strength of the economy and the level of crime. If our economy continues to decline, all other things being equal, the crime rate will go up. There will be a lag, but the trend will be there. However, all other things may not be equal, and there could arise other factors that will belie that tendency.

In most cities, the crime rate roughly fell from before 2000 to about 2005, and then started to go back up again.
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Old 01-01-2010, 01:54 PM
 
8,670 posts, read 6,345,922 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by annika08 View Post
Crime has also risen exponentially in pretty much the entire state of Michigan. A lot of this correlates not only with our horrible economic decline and 15%+ unemployment, but the increasingly rapid early release of violent prisoners into society (due to budget cuts, hiring freezes and layoffs, and entire prison closings).
This is 100% FALSE! Michigan has been in recession since about 2006. If you look at the violent crime rate in Michigan in its larger cities you will see it has declined or stagnated in the aggregate, since 2006.
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