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Old 01-20-2010, 06:12 AM
 
Location: Tampa
3,981 posts, read 9,247,350 times
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Freelance Nation: Why Permanent Jobs May Not Come Back - DailyFinance



This trend has plenty of room to run, as Princeton University economist Alan S. Blinder estimates that up to 29% of all U.S. jobs could be offshored in the coming decades. This so-called "global wage arbitrage" is largely the result of competitive pressures: If a company doesn't seek out lower labor costs globally, its competitors will.



I have heard this before. And, if true, what happens to the US? Other western nations?
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Old 01-20-2010, 06:47 AM
 
Location: Londonderry, NH
41,505 posts, read 49,588,323 times
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Our labor class is reduced to third word wages and skills. The economy dependant upon the worker's wages, principally real estate and automotive, suffer price deflation as their products become too expensive. Home ownership, along with the associated mortgage, becomes a thing of the past. Workers will live in rental housing or government projects. Big automobiles are replaced with smaller, cheaper and less safe imports. The education industry is reduced to a few highly exclusive private schools and much diminished public universities. There will be an increase in private "trade" educational companies that train the working class for the fewer maintenance positions available. The day of the self, or on the job, taught auto mechanic or appliance repairman is already over. Building trades will suffer from fewer jobs as fewer building will be built and those that are will most likely be made in factories and placed on sites where the utilities already exist. The only working class jobs with any security will likely be plumbers, electricians, HVAC technicians etc.

The only place industry, labor and services might increase will be the military. Our empire, until it collapses, will require ever increasing numbers of labor class people as well as industrial output. This will profit the few laboring class people employed and the owners of the industries. The upper crust will, as always, provide the Officers.

Overall this outsourcing of industry to offshore locations will remove this source of basic productivity from our domestic economy. We will be left with mining increasingly scarce resources and growing food on increasingly over worked land. This will reduce the productivity of these basic sources of real wealth. The overall economy will inexorably decline probably on an exponential curve.

The only bright spot in this scenario is the continually increasing wealth of the investor and financial classes. They will collect the wealth created in the offshore investments and the profits from providing the finances. The incomes and total wealth of the uppermost 5% of the citizens will greatly increase. They will demand even greater exclusivity for their homes, services and recreation. This will result in some growth in the amount of labor required to pleasure this exclusive clientele.

In short we will become much more like other failed empires.
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Old 01-20-2010, 02:19 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,668 posts, read 71,613,725 times
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It is interesting that you used the term "labor market". Like, days of people's lives are resources to be bought and sold to the highest bidder.
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Old 01-20-2010, 02:29 PM
 
1,255 posts, read 2,696,016 times
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My Son was working one Job 40 Hours a week making $8 an hour as a Diesel Mechanic and Carpenter.Plus working 20 hours a week for Steak and Shake making $7.25 an hour.Which was just barely paying the Bills.

Well a Guy went to the Guy that my Son was doing the Mechanic and Carpenter work for said he would do it for $4 an hour.So natualy the Guy let my Son go.

I have a feeling we're going to see alot more of this

hillman
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Old 01-20-2010, 09:11 PM
 
48,519 posts, read 81,086,895 times
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The wrold ahs changed many times just in the twentith century and that change satrt in the later part is just contnuing and accelerated by the precent recession as it was in the 70's recession. That because many of the owrkplaces dying off were dealt a death blow by both.
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Old 01-20-2010, 10:38 PM
 
3,706 posts, read 3,031,347 times
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Jeremy Rifkin wrote a book titled The End of Work in 95, in it he states his contention that the requium for the blue collar was sounded some time ago. This present debacle has it's roots in all that openess of the "free market" global grab-all that we were told was salvation at it's best. We could enjoy the fruits of others labor all the while "building" our personal wealth via 401k's and savy investing in this casino economy where the uppers were betting against the lowers.

Those people that were convinced of their vastly improved status are now pissed that we were duped, but, they were the ones who didn't see the NAFTA fastracking as something to fear, nor could they admit that they suspected the old house they had abused for so long was really worth all that money. They accepted the residual wealth that was created out of thin air, buying and bragging, they went on their merry way, hoping that the circus was never leaving town, they were the clowns, and they were having so much fun.

What happens to the US and other western economies? Well, in a global world there is no such thing as individual economies, it's just one big ol' mess of money flying around the world and every player is hoping some of it will stick to his part of the planet. This meltdown is not about a "recession", the news media calls it as such because American's can relate to that which they are familiar with, but truth be told we have never had anything of this scale foisted on us, it'll be the turning point for all of the worlds future not just the west.
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Old 01-20-2010, 10:43 PM
 
5,767 posts, read 10,032,857 times
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There are some fundamental questions here. It is possible that - in a globalized economy (or even just a modernized economy), a huge chunk of Americans simply won't have labor capacity that is worth very much to the market.

A secretary at an office might get paid over $30,000 per year today. However, if a lot of those duties can be outsourced or automated, the value of that labor per year might decline to something around $4,000.

Obviously, that is not enough to support anything close to a middle-class life.

Now - we can make up the gap via taxation and redistribution. Or we could just let things play out, and allow incomes to stratify dramatically.

Either way, it will be an interesting future, though perhaps a grim one for many people.
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Old 01-21-2010, 07:33 AM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
7,091 posts, read 10,493,331 times
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The world is changing, other countries are competing with the US and we have to adapt. We can just sit here and cry that job X has gone, carry signs protesting, and remember "The Good Old Days" when sitting on our laurels was an option. We have to remain flexible and smart in our choices, look forward to shifts so we aren't getting caught without options.

Just look at Detroit, they have been riding the same pony for decades that has been spiraling to death and people just complained and protested for at least the last 30 years (at least long as I can remember). Japanese and Korean car companies have outstripped their quality at below their costs, and it didn't ring any bells we need to find new and innovative things to do. People just plodded along and when it hit them in the face things were changing they asked for bailouts, they marched screaming with their signs, they sold their stories to the news so they could show people them lamenting the loss of the old.

What they needed to is when it started looking like a shift is to find something new to do, even go back to school. If many of the people who were out of work went into something like nursing, many would not only have jobs...they would fill the shortage. Health facilities are paying to train people to be nurses with a contract (my own is 2 years), so you don't really even loose any money yourself. I wouldn't like it myself, but I would do it to put food on my families table instead of pulling out the "WAAAAAH'-bulance of being bumped out of my job after watching other people get bumped out for a decade.
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Old 01-21-2010, 09:23 AM
 
Location: Londonderry, NH
41,505 posts, read 49,588,323 times
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I do not think I would be willing to bring anything as complicated as a Diesel engine to anyone willing to work for $4.00 per hour. That is "hobby" level wages and I really doubt the man's skill. I know the shop is run by thieves. Honest men cannot compete with crooks. Why didn't your son file an unfair labor practices complaint? That might not have gotten his job back but the other guy, and proably the shop, would have lost theirs.

Your son could look around for another job. As far as I know Diesel mechanics make around $20 – $30 per hour around here. They make way more in our various wars if he is willing to take the risk of getting blown up.
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Old 01-21-2010, 11:09 AM
 
3,706 posts, read 3,031,347 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by subsound View Post
The world is changing, other countries are competing with the US and we have to adapt. We can just sit here and cry that job X has gone, carry signs protesting, and remember "The Good Old Days" when sitting on our laurels was an option. We have to remain flexible and smart in our choices, look forward to shifts so we aren't getting caught without options.

Just look at Detroit, they have been riding the same pony for decades that has been spiraling to death and people just complained and protested for at least the last 30 years (at least long as I can remember). Japanese and Korean car companies have outstripped their quality at below their costs, and it didn't ring any bells we need to find new and innovative things to do. People just plodded along and when it hit them in the face things were changing they asked for bailouts, they marched screaming with their signs, they sold their stories to the news so they could show people them lamenting the loss of the old.

What they needed to is when it started looking like a shift is to find something new to do, even go back to school. If many of the people who were out of work went into something like nursing, many would not only have jobs...they would fill the shortage. Health facilities are paying to train people to be nurses with a contract (my own is 2 years), so you don't really even loose any money yourself. I wouldn't like it myself, but I would do it to put food on my families table instead of pulling out the "WAAAAAH'-bulance of being bumped out of my job after watching other people get bumped out for a decade.
It would be hard to compete with the worker who lives in substandard housing and exists on very little pay. We in the US are not competing with other countries, we are competing with other individuals who are used up and discarded by the factory bosses that have state backing.

To think that the Japanese have pulled off some kind of economic miracle is to deny the huge amount of US money going into their economy for decades, GM and Toyota, Ford and Mazda, Chrysler and Mitsubishi, there is a ton more of "partnership" deals struck by American investors and manufacturing companies. When the cost rose in Japan the fat cat's moved on to the rest of the world.

Korean workers are now trumping their Japanese counterparts in steel and heavy manufacturing, why? Because the Japanese worker can't "compete" any more than we can against those downtrodden souls in Korea, India, China, and a bunch of Island nations that have their workers living in some kind of dogpatch conditions reminiscent of the situation that inspired unions in the US and Europe to garner a large portion of the national workforce.

To imply that the global economic situation is some kind of contest wherein the players are pitted against each other for the pursuit of a reasonably fair outcome is nonsense, it's all about greed, they don't call it the race to the bottom for nothing. To insist upon a fair wage and decent living conditions is not "sitting on your laurels", and if you go to India or China you will see plenty of "flexibility" it's called doing without. Oh, and as for "the good old days", that WAS America, this new economic order is the antithesis of all that made this place great.
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