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Old 12-31-2014, 05:34 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
It's late into the afternoon and early evening, FYI they set a record once here for electric usage in the winter.
Then that should make for a good diversity on a National Grid.

Else there is not a lot of use for Solar Thermal Production from the Southwest. In Winter there is not as high Demand in that area, and it lags into the evening.
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Old 12-31-2014, 05:46 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thecoalman View Post
If everyone had rooftop solar connecting to the grid becomes irrelevant without nuke/fossil fuel generation.
In the long run, probably nuke/fossil will head towards irrelevance, but that is some decades out.

At the current frack production rate and low costs, probably would guess that Natural Gas Combined Cycle Turbines will be the last standing of the Fossil/Carbon genre.

Maybe some Thorium Pebble Bed Nukes for Critical Back-up and to burn off old Nuke Waste.

From what I follow, Coal is slated to be the Long Term Carbon Liquid Fuel source -- like say for Military Aircraft.
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Old 12-31-2014, 06:56 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
Why so condescending?

Of Course just a relatively small percentage of Rooftops + Open Parking lots with Solar on them would power all of the US.

Annual US Electricity use per year is about 4 Million-MegaWatt-hours.

Or about 4 E 12 (that is 4 followed by 12 "0"s) Watt Hours.

So let's compare how much space that is in Solar?

Allowing 9 watts per square foot, and maybe 1000 square foot per roof, with an average run time of 5
hours a day, 365 days per year, . . . .

4 E 12 / (9 x 5 x 365) = about 250 million square feet, or like we guessed above, of 1000 square foot per roof = 250,000 houses, or business, or whatever roofs.

You understand that is not a really big number, right?

I have done installs on Ikeas where just one rooftop install is that are over 10 to 20 times that.

The Central-Plant Carbon-Fuel model is in serious trouble.

Really, look at these numbers:

Solar Industry Data | SEIA
What is the output of that Ikea at say...11pm? There are so many holes in your theories that its always a circular argument. You make a statement, then change the scenario to suit the previous statement and then come up with all kinds of smoke and mirrors.

If it was as you said, there wouldn't even be a discussion about it, it would have been done already.
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Old 12-31-2014, 07:36 PM
 
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While you're at it, just how does strategic energy get addressed in this 100% no storage solar world?

BTW, the reason Ikea can harvest the energy you talk about is because they sell the excess and the reason they can sell the excess is because someone has need for it. Those needs exist because the power producers have a market for non-solar energy, you entire scenario is based on that not existing.

How many rooftops can have solar in Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, the list is long. In your 100% solar world, we do have one benefit, we no longer need sophisticated weapons when all we really need are huge supplies of rather large ball bearings (rocks will do) dropped from high altitudes, no precision this or that.

If you were able to prove even half of what you're talking about, you could schedule appointments with the largest financial institutions and world governments and get this done pronto.

No doubt, others have tried and thus, the appointment books for things like this are all filled.

It isn't condescending to question these kinds of things, there is a reason why it is a subject of discussion here and not actually being implemented.
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Old 01-01-2015, 08:54 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mack Knife View Post
What is the output of that Ikea at say...11pm?
GREAT QUESTION -- Answer -- Nearly Zero. SAME AS THE LOAD / DEMAND at Ikea at say . . . 11 pm.

Think about it. You are really not following the issue being covered is TIME OF USE -- not total production?

Presently the ONLY areas in the market for ANY added production is Day Time and (as Coalman noted), into the Early Evening. If you look at most any Time Of Use billing method, you can see the most expensive (meaning Premium and actual demand time) is daytime and into the early evening.

Here is a sample. See the expensive times? Daytime, and Summer. Solar Time. See the cheap times? Baseload. Overnight. It is worthless to Store Energy for a Time of Use when no one wants it. Try out the little slide price calculator and switch back and forth between Summer and Winter.

That will show the relative value and demand.

Time-of-Use | PG&E

Solar PV -- which can start Early on East Coast, (and a little beyond), follow 4 hours of Noon across the US, along with Solar Thermal, which lags into the Evening -- Fully Covers that entire time. No storage.

Who cares about the overnight dead bands, when that Production Time is already completely saturated with Surplus Generation -- real world operators are trying to the Complete Opposite of what you are supposing, and instead Store Night Time Surplus to move it into the day.

It will take Decades for the Carbon and Nuke Plants to die-off, but why not leave the dead to bury the dead? By the time Carbon Generation fully dies out . . . our presently existing Solar Panels will already be due for replacement, and likely even less load will exist at night, and more into the day.

Market Method is to leave the Carbon and Nuke Plants to fight over the table-scraps in the night, along with so much surplus overnight Wind (already) it is not just free -- the Wind operators have to pay the Grid just to take the surplus power. (ready, check out this story below -- are you starting to see how much of your mindset is totally out of touch with the real world conditions of Power Generation?)

Nuclear Industry Withers in U.S. as Wind Pummels Prices - Bloomberg


Quote:

There are so many holes in your theories that its always a circular argument.

Sorry Mack, just debunking your claims.

I perceive the difference is because you do not understand the Progression of:

1. Problem Statement
2. Solution.
3. Answer.

You are starting by arguing the (your) Answer without fully understanding the Problem Statement and totally skipping the Solution.

Not saying that is not a valid method for "debate" or lawyers or other such nonsense, but we do not generally go there in Engineering, per se.


Quote:

You make a statement, then change the scenario to suit the previous statement and then come up with all kinds of smoke and mirrors.
My scenario never changes. It just does not match yours because you do not have a Complete Problem statement . . . mostly because you have not bothered to study the Problem or the Problem Statement.

Not saying you are dumb or anything. It is more of a discipline thing.

We see this in Engineering from time-to-time. Most wash out by their Sophomore year.

Quote:
If it was as you said, there wouldn't even be a discussion about it, it would have been done already.
The general plans have been in the works since Jimmy Carter put Solar on White House back in the Late 1970s.

Corporate interests that have accumulated various stocks of Carbon Fuels (Coal, Oil, etc.) resist the transition until they have exhausted the Profitability of their stock. Not rocket science. Just Corporate folks are All About the Money. Want to sell off the old model before you put out the new one out.

Anyone who has done the math can see that the serious use of Carbon Fuels total run time is/will be only a couple or few centuries. We are already into the third Century of the Great Carbon Burn.

Looking at the numbers ahead, Solar and other various renewables should give at least a "7 Generation" to several Century run, ahead. Not so bad for a Long Term Plan. Good Legacy to leave the kids, huh?
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Old 01-01-2015, 09:30 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mack Knife View Post
While you're at it, just how does strategic energy get addressed in this 100% no storage solar world?
Just to help you improve your Problem Statement discipline -- do you follow that Energy, nor Strategic, were NOT in the Problem Statement?

The OP's discussion was about Electricity Production, in General (which is NOT "Energy" per se), not even into Military or other such applications.

But as far as matters of Strategic -- Liquid Fuels tend to be the interest -- to keep the Aircraft and ICEs going. Not so much Electricity. However, as noted in this thread and others, Electricity can be used to make Liquid Fuels, and the demand for Liquid Fuels can be greatly reduced in the Civilian and Industrial Market by shifting from ICEs to Electric Motors -- but you already know that.

Quote:

BTW, the reason Ikea can harvest the energy you talk about is because they sell the excess and the reason they can sell the excess is because someone has need for it. Those needs exist because the power producers have a market for non-solar energy, you entire scenario is based on that not existing.
I am sorry, did that sentence make sense to you? I am not tracking it.

The "market" tends to care little about the source -- however some folks, like users of "Green Mountain" and some businesses like "Whole Foods" have sort of a Market Share and buy agreement where they create accounting to show their entire use is balanced by various renewable production.

Is that what you are speaking towards?

Quote:

How many rooftops can have solar in Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, the list is long. In your 100% solar world, we do have one benefit, we no longer need sophisticated weapons when all we really need are huge supplies of rather large ball bearings (rocks will do) dropped from high altitudes, no precision this or that.
You clearly have no idea on this part, either. Sorry, but cannot do this discussion on this forum.

Quote:

If you were able to prove even half of what you're talking about, you could schedule appointments with the largest financial institutions and world governments and get this done pronto.

No doubt, others have tried and thus, the appointment books for things like this are all filled.
You have this part backwards, as well.

The Pentagram has teams, with retired Colonels and Generals that come out to us in industry and tell us what they want, to see what we have, and figure out how to do collaborative work. Some of that goes into much deeper R&D stuff that may not be proper for this forum, but is part of the overall DARPA mission, and other related areas.

That is for the more advanced stuff, but even the simple Solar is very well supported.

Did you look at any of those pictures I linked, of just even the simple Solar Arrays? The .gov folks -- very Senior Executives -- you see in the pictures with the over-sized comic checks -- they drove 6 hours, one-way to be doing that. It is part of their job. They even send their own office representatives out to our offices to help us fill out the forms to make sure things will be in order, in advance.

Quote:
It isn't condescending to question these kinds of things, there is a reason why it is a subject of discussion here and not actually being implemented.
I do not consider the questions condescending.

My concern was for your tone with some other members of the forum. City-Data tends to be a Very Polite and well-ordered operation.

Last edited by Philip T; 01-01-2015 at 10:10 AM..
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Old 01-01-2015, 10:45 AM
 
Location: The Island of Misfit Toys
2,767 posts, read 2,291,031 times
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I don't think government, emergency, manufacturing and other vital or big production facilities and institutions can be 100% solar yet.

But let's put it this way: I think the general civilian population can be and that would have a huge impact.

Think about it this way: if you, as an individual, can be 100% solar right now if you wanted and had the means - which is certainly feasible - than any family, which is only made up of individuals itself, can also be 100% solar...give and take some minor differences in needs.

What stops people from going solar is not that it can't be done (people have lived thousands of years without electricity, let alone solar power), but that they don't want to give up certain luxuries. They just refuse to even consider it.

They'd rather theoretically reach back in time an exhume more energy than the Earth can support rather than only use the energy provided here and now. People reject those kinds of limits being put on their consumption because they want more goods, more power, more warmth, more cooling, more speed, more range, everything more, more. And they don't want to wait for it.

If you don't believe humans consume more than they need all you have to do is look around at how obese the population has become.
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Old 01-01-2015, 11:26 AM
 
39,171 posts, read 40,553,882 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
In Winter there is not as high Demand in that area, and it lags into the evening.
Generally however during extreme cold that's not necessarily the case. There is lot of people that use electric for their main heat source, supplemental and even if it's fueled by something other than electric you still have a lot of pumps or fan motors running.

Cold leads to record electricity demand - The Morning Call
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Old 01-01-2015, 12:38 PM
 
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Solar technology needs to improve but absolutely YES.

in fact living down in Australia, almost all new houses have solar fitted.

Panels are incredibly common, on every second house in some areas.

However the technology itself needs work. The panels don't last for a very long time, need replacing every few years, and of course are ugly and huge.

In time I am sure All our Energy will come from the sun.

The Big Oil Companies may be trying to divert progress however.
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Old 01-01-2015, 02:09 PM
 
Location: DC
6,504 posts, read 6,423,574 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Philip T View Post
In the long run, probably nuke/fossil will head towards irrelevance, but that is some decades out.

At the current frack production rate and low costs, probably would guess that Natural Gas Combined Cycle Turbines will be the last standing of the Fossil/Carbon genre.

Maybe some Thorium Pebble Bed Nukes for Critical Back-up and to burn off old Nuke Waste.

From what I follow, Coal is slated to be the Long Term Carbon Liquid Fuel source -- like say for Military Aircraft.
Nukes don't complement renewables well because they have very high capital costs and don't ramp well. Simple cycle CT or hydro are the best complements to renewable generation.
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